Bloomberg Radio: AIG, Bear & Bailouts
I'll be on Bloomberg radio today from 11:30ish til noon, discussing AIG, Bear Stearns, the Fed, and our many many Bailouts.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008 | 11:14 AM | Permalink
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I was trying to catalog mentally all the major fed actions they've taken in the last 24 months to fend off the collapse of this house of cards. Frankly there's so many it's hard to remember them all.
I'd like to see a work up a timeline.
We have AIG, we have Bear Stearns, we have Fannie and Freddie (with the creation of the new Treasury secured lending facility), creation of the TSLF, we have the successive opening of funds outside of the central banks, the successive massive infusions of more cash.
a timeline of the desperation of these measures would be insightful. Intern time?
Posted by: Retrogrouch | Sep 17, 2008 11:20:15 AM
the bailouts are inflationary... i've said that before.
anyone remember when i posted a month or so ago that GS needed to trade down to 110 or so? 111.63 is the low so far. i'm not trying to toot my horn, just showing how the seemingly impossible is possible.
i will toot my horn on NEM from the other day when I posted that Fusion IQ's breakdown was more likely a turning point...
and lastly, i LOVE seeing gold up $50+. hail to real money and fiscal responsibility.
best wishes to all in this violently turbulent time.
Posted by: karen | Sep 17, 2008 11:21:27 AM
If played right (and carefully), gotta love the SKF (and SRS) volatility lately..........
Posted by: Jeff M. | Sep 17, 2008 11:34:21 AM
One more for the time line:
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1144.htm
The Treasury Department announced today the initiation of a temporary supplementary Financing Program at the request of the Federal Reserve,'' the department said in a statement today. ``The
program will consist of a series of Treasury bills, apart from Treasury's current borrowing program.''
Posted by: Retrogrouch | Sep 17, 2008 11:45:08 AM
Can anyone recommend a trustworthy source for inflation figures?
Posted by: Chris D. | Sep 17, 2008 11:55:01 AM
best source i have for inflation figure is the value of the usd via the $usd index. another source is $gold.
Posted by: karen | Sep 17, 2008 11:59:51 AM
Fear trades are active. Gold up $50... it had to happen sooner or later. I am enjoying that, for sure, Karen. So when do Treasuries start to melt down on the prospect of massive supply? These bailouts are adding up fast and we are clearly not at the end of it.
There is a bit of fear out there today, a few more people might be looking into the abyss now. Wonder when this is going to migrate to Joe Public? Those 401K losses are mounting...
Looks like another retest of the 1170 area going on right now. To say that this is a critical close today might be regarded as an understatement.
Posted by: leftback | Sep 17, 2008 12:01:10 PM
For what it's worth, I've got Interactive Brokers. One of the few stocks that is not available for shorting is USO. In other words, the SEC's no naked short selling may only force covering on oil and send oil up. Just an observation.
Posted by: Fenner | Sep 17, 2008 12:03:58 PM
leftback, i'm with you on the "when do treasuries meltdown." one day, i plan to buy rrpix. yesterday it hit it's all time low of 16, beating out 16.28 in 2Q of 2005. look at it on a weekly chart going back to 2002 when it was in the 26s.
Posted by: karen | Sep 17, 2008 12:21:34 PM
is anyone buying anything here? other than covering short positions, i mean. i have a thing for DHT. it was recently downgraded by the S&P because it "only" hauls crude oil; for me, that was the whole reason to buy it!
i have my favorites in the financials but have decided not to touch them, even for a trade. (IBN and AXP, for example.) then there are the government's favorites, their Goldman Child and J Put Morgan.
you know what i think? the market was supposed to correct in 2005, but "they" didn't let it. this is the price we pay for unfree markets.
Posted by: karen | Sep 17, 2008 12:28:47 PM
Karen, not a grizzled vet here by any means, but I'm not buying (did finally cover half my shorts today, quite glad I waited, thanks to all for their valuable input). Not convinced we've seen true capitulation just yet, still feel the market hasn't priced in our coming long-term malaise. Short term buying (trading) may work, but I'm not nearly confident enough that this down-leg is over. I can imagine some capitulation coming soon (days to weeks) that could knock another 5-15% off the indexes and ruin that trade.
Posted by: Jonny | Sep 17, 2008 1:15:07 PM
Bought some gold stocks this morning- so far working out well.
Talked to a friend of mine in the insurance business this am. He told me that Buffett's companies are no longer backstopping the FDIC for large accounts, due to the likelihood of more bank failures. Previously, they had offered insurance for those accounts greater than $100m. This is creating myriads of issues for companies, as they are the only ones w/accounts this large to facilitate payroll/taxces, etc.
Posted by: larster | Sep 17, 2008 1:35:11 PM
do you see gold is up over $75? wait till the $100 days. got goldstocks? i forget which year it was (2002-2003?) but the $hui actually traded inversely to the $indu. we didn't even look at the POG (price of gold) cuz the stocks led.
Posted by: karen | Sep 17, 2008 1:40:11 PM
It has been said that the cash price of gold is much higher than the paper price. People are having to wait many weeks for physical delivery. This along with any short selling probably adds immediate presuure on upwards movement of price. Of course the govt is not only going to run the treasuries printing presses 24/7 but they will have to buy more. To inflate our way out of our debt. So then the dollar goes down and we have to look towards what is really increasing in value.
All the commodities that went down are candidates to rise, but gold is still the most visible.
Posted by: alexd | Sep 17, 2008 9:21:51 PM
