Front Page Crash Coverage
Interesting front page coverage of yesterday's market action:
>
Tuesday, September 30, 2008 | 08:17 AM | Permalink
| Comments (45)
| TrackBack (0)
add to de.li.cious | 
digg this! | 
add to technorati | 
email this post
TrackBack
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef01053502021d970c
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Front Page Crash Coverage :
Comments
I'm wondering if the publications know of the theory that they are used as contrary indicators?
Posted by: Juhuti | Sep 30, 2008 8:22:42 AM
What is remarkable about this bailout is the way it cuts across the political spectrum. It is not a partisan issue and few seem to notice that. The demarcation line is those who have benefited from this new global economy and those who have not.
The vast majority who has seen their incomes decline and cost of living go up are not going to bail out a bunch of fancy pants globalist bankers and corporations who have made billions without getting their pound of flesh. If there is to be a solution to this it must be de minimis to the American taxpayer.
To people who are overburdened with debt, to say that we need to get the credit markets going again is like saying to recovering alcoholics that we need to prop up the liquor industry to get the booze flowing again and the liquor store owners want you to pay for it.
Posted by: Tom | Sep 30, 2008 8:27:55 AM
Posted by: Juhuti | Sep 30, 2008 8:22:42 AM
Juhuti,
they are, useful(?), 'contrary indicators', because the they're only used by 'a few'.
to that end, no, most decidedly, they don't care..it's 'Mass Media', after all..
Posted by: Mark E Hoffer | Sep 30, 2008 8:28:55 AM
From: http://www.sliderontheblack.com/fed-bernanke-paulson/bailout-main-streets-message-to-wall-street-washington/
Bailout: Main Streets message to Wall Street and Washington...
We don’t believe you.
Not a single word you say.
Why?
Do the words “read my lips - no more taxes” ring a bell?
We didn’t believe you when you said - “the credit crisis is well
contained.”
We didn’t believe you when you said - “the worst is now behind
us.”
We didn’t believe you when you told us the bill would be -
“$150 billion.”
We didn’t believe you then and we don’t believe you now.
And how dare you!?!
How dare you trot out a bumbling, stumbling, stuttering,
slickster like the former CEO of Goldman Sachs who personally
profited to the tune of a $700 Million Dollar personal fortune by
sending our jobs to China so some fat cat Wall Street CEO could
double the value of his stock options, grab some lobbyist
created tax credits, and drop .09 cents to his bottom line.
Not to mention that he, his former firm, and his ilk, were the
ones who created and profited from dumping all this toxic Wall
Street paper on Main Street in the first place!
Any coincidence that Paulson tried to “bum rush” us into a
bailout, right after Goldman Sachs started to collapse?
Bear Stearns - no problem.
Fannie & Freddie - no problem.
Lehman Brothers - no problem.
Merrill Lynch - no problem.
WAMU - no problem.
Goldman? - problem.
We all know there are no coincidences on Wall Street.
And now you want to keep your $40 million dollar apartment in
Manhattan, your $10 million dollar vacation home in the
Hampton’s, and the windfall profits you sucked out of America,
just before you collapse it?
You want us to bail you out of bankruptcy, right before you send
us (and America) into it?
You want bankruptcy reform for you - after you locked us into
serfdom with the bankruptcy reform act of 2005 - right at the
peak of the credit, and housing bubble?
You want a bailout - AFTER you locked us, our children, and
America into debtors prison?
Relief, reform, and a bailout for you… and the bill & debtors
prison for us?
You must really think we’re a bunch of chumps.
Well guess what Wall Street & Washington, while “this sucka may
go down” this time YOU’RE going down with us.
Sincerely,
Main Street
Posted by: Michael | Sep 30, 2008 8:29:10 AM
Jesse Livermore Gunshot Indicator - Market bottomed 10 months after Enron executive, J. Clifford Baxter, shot himself. Market bottomed 14 months after Livermore shot himself. There Will be Blood on the Street - I'll call a bottom when Jimmy Cayne pulls out a .38 after a bad hand of bridge or TV's famous Stock Guru is found dead on his dirty linoleum floor with a cheap bottle of scotch. That is a contrary indicator. Buy, Buy, Buy.
Posted by: paul parsons | Sep 30, 2008 8:40:41 AM
Last week, before John McCain "suspended his campaign" to rush to Washington to save the country's financial system, Intrade gave him a 48% chance of winning the presidency. By Saturday, after two days of bizarre flip-flops on Friday's debate, a broken vow not to leave Washington until a deal was in place, and a debate that most people thought he lost, McCain's odds had dropped to 44%.
But that collapse was nothing. Now, with the stock market plummeting, McCain having failed to deliver enough Republican votes for the bailout, and Americans presumably wanting to do away with anything that reminds them of Bush, McCain's odds have hit a recent, post-Palin low of 37%.
Posted by: Henry Blodgett | Sep 30, 2008 8:41:20 AM
> To people who are overburdened with debt,
> to say that we need to get the credit
> markets going again is like saying to
> recovering alcoholics that we need to
> prop up the liquor industry to get the
> booze flowing again and the liquor store
> owners want you to pay for it.
That's a great characterization. Of course there are also those who say 'show me the way to the next whiskey bar, no don't ask why... for if we don't find the next whiskey bar, I tell you we must die'.
Posted by: pmorrisonfl | Sep 30, 2008 8:45:24 AM
Does anybody know when we legalized extortion?
Posted by: mark mchugh | Sep 30, 2008 8:45:44 AM
The demarcation line is those who have benefited from this new global economy and those who have not.
In my conversations, the demarcation is psychological. Many Democrats support the bailout simply because prominent Democrats say they should (ie. appeal to authority). Other folks support it because the news media and other "trusted sources" tell them that if the bailout is not passed immediately that, "society will collapse and children will starve" and that no matter how bad this bill is, "the alternative is worse." These people, IMO, fit the profile of people who are primarily motivated by fear, and when scared enough, instinctively disconnect their own judgemental faculties and blindly follow the lead of a trusted authority figure.
Not pretty.
Posted by: Douglas Watts | Sep 30, 2008 8:48:07 AM
^^.'sending our jobs to china'?
huh?. if the chinese hadnt lent you the money, 'your' job wouldnt have existed in the first place.
Posted by: Dsylexic | Sep 30, 2008 8:48:12 AM
Let's start with a simple definition of the goals... what is this giveaway expected to accomplish?
There have been dozens of hints, implications and claims - it will preserve the value of everybody's 401k. Will it? It will 'save' Main Street. Meaning what, exactly? It will 'recapitalize' banks. Who, exactly? What banks? How much capital? We'll all buy cars if this passes. Really, Barney? The stock market will go up. Really... is that a goal of the plan?
This administration has a proven history of dropping us into fuzzy situations with no goals, no definition of success and no details. Iraq. Katrina. Homeland Security. On goes the list.
The reason is simple: they aren't thinking. They aren't planning. They are not doing the basic job we hired them to do.
I see the market futures are rising a bit now on 'hope'. There is no hope and there is going to be no plan and no warm, fuzzy generic 'rescue'. Someday there may be a defined goal and a defined price for a defined mission laid down for consideration by Congress. We are not there now.
Posted by: wally | Sep 30, 2008 8:48:20 AM
Did anyone enjoy George Hoover Bush's little speech? Mr. President, get this economy down to where it belongs, don't worry about the market losing over a trillion yesterday, mr. market doesn't care at all the only thing he cares about is reaching equilibrium. Of course you can make it take a lot longer than it needs to.
--------------------
I'm getting sick and tired of these gurus coming on tv and telling us that we need to pass this bail-out, with having only, "we don't see any other solution." So, maybe no solution at all is best. Keep your powder dry until you can see the whites of the economy's eyes!
Posted by: JustinTheSkeptic | Sep 30, 2008 8:59:58 AM
"Does anybody know when we legalized extortion?"
The Corporate-owned media got their talking points this morning and it's all about scare and extortion.
Posted by: ap | Sep 30, 2008 9:02:34 AM
Barry,
Is there any corelation between the short selling restrictions and the massive drop after the no vote?
Ie, did the restrictions make the market less able to price in the possibility of a no vote and thus cause greater short term volatility?
~~~
BR: Doug Kass notes that thought he markets were down 8% or so, the "Do Not Short" list dropped 12%.
As I wrote yesterday: ITS A SHAME THERE ARE NO SHORTS WHO WOULD OTHERWISE BE COMING IN ABOUT NOW TO COVER. (HASN'T ANYONE AT THE SEC EVER WORKED ON A TRADING DESK?)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/majority-votes.html
Posted by: Denis | Sep 30, 2008 9:05:04 AM
Change of Nomenclature
Before World War II came about, World War I was known simply as The Great War. Kind of like how we called it The Great Depression up until now.
Posted by: mappo | Sep 30, 2008 9:18:53 AM
Listening to Bloomberg this AM heard Rep Don Price, R-GA, say that eliminating "mark=to=market" accounting.and mortgage insurance are free market approachs to solving the issue. When pressed by the interviewer how these are free market solutions, Rep Price said he was not as articulate about financial stuff as much as the interviewer but just knew that free markets solve everything.
I'm just stunned at the stupidity of people who make rules that effect all our lives. These people just spout shit they know nothing about and we keep re-electing them over and over
Posted by: grumpyoldvet | Sep 30, 2008 9:19:55 AM
Barry, just 2 weeks ago you said your indicators were pointing to a 'buying opportunity' in the markets.. The S&P 500 was 11% HIGHER when you made the call..
What happened?
~~~
BR: No, Steve, I wrote:
"Given how horrific the news flow is, the general psychology is very negative. Not nearly enough to create a lasting low, but certainly enough to generate an interesting bounce.
That 50% retrace is where one would expect to see some sort of *rally. I don't expect it to last very long, and its really a long term selling opportunity."
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/50-retracement.html
Then I wrote:
"As the VIX chart below shows, there is some measure of panic. We have now spiked above all of the recent panics of the past 2 years -- but not nearly as much as we have seen in the 2,000, mid-2001, and 9/11. Those 3 prior panics set up the 2002/03 lows 2 years later.
The only question for traders is whether or not this sell off is closer to the ones seen over the past 2 years (in which case you can buy 'em here) or more like the 2000- 03 period (in which case we have more selling to go). "
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/fear-returns-to.html
And then finally I wrote:
"A few people have asked why I am not more enthusiastic about any bounce off of these technical levels. The simple answer is that we are still working our way through economic, credit, fundamental earnings, and and valuation issues.
The bounce is from a technical perspective, and recognizes that nothing goes in any one direction for ever."
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/fear-returns-to.html
Posted by: Steve | Sep 30, 2008 9:31:57 AM
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. In this case, the WSJ cover is worth 700B words. Is this what it felt like in 1929 and 1930. To wake up and see the major stock market index behaving like the “tower of terror” at Disney world. ( the tower of terror is a ride that takes you to the 13th floor and drops you in a free fall). Do you get the picture?
I found this bloggers perspective on the bailout priceless:
“Had the ‘Bail Out’ Bill been passed by Congress this afternoon, it would have resulted in a ‘tourniquet’ being applied to a severed artery in circumstances where the ‘tourniquet’ would enable the patient to live for a while longer but not solve the fundamental problem that the patient is 90 years old with little time left under any circumstance.”
In other words this is only a temporary solution that has been made overly emphasis zed which has caused the market to react in such a negative fashion. Will the bailout go to a re vote? I think so. Why? There are too many elites pushing for it, and their vote will either be swung (bought) in a matter of time.
Posted by: OilyGasMiner | Sep 30, 2008 9:37:52 AM
The egg will bounce.
Short-term indicators:
1. Vince Farrell bottom call on CNBC. Usually good for a few days.
2. Cover of New York Times and WSJ.
3. David Tice interview on Bloomberg (never fails).
That should be good for a bounce, this trading market really has something for everyone. DCB Trades™ for the day: DIG and UYG, also long GDX.
The rants last night were interesting. I was not too caught up in the politics of this myself but I think that foreign investors would not have been impressed with the operation of the congress. It was all so theatrical, a bit Italian really, you almost expected them to dissolve the government right there and hold an election. Wonder what the Chinese made of it? At least it created time for a more thoughtful intervention to be crafted.
Posted by: leftback | Sep 30, 2008 9:38:18 AM
So what does the media stay this morning? "Stocks Rally Despite No Bailout"? No, it must be that there is "hope" of a "new bailout". Stocks, like Houses, are still overpriced. $700 billion is not going to do more to support stock and home values than any other price-support mechanism. Will it thaw the frozen credit markets? No. What will? Good old fashioned greed.
At the end of the day, bankers make money by LENDING money, NOT by keeping it in their vaults. In times of uncertainty, sure they can shut down for a period of "wait and see", but every day they do COSTS THEM MONEY in lost interest. They have a natural motive to lend. Why do the taxpayers need to pay to encourage them to make more money sooner?
Posted by: Mike Castronovo | Sep 30, 2008 9:39:48 AM
"I'm just stunned at the stupidity of people who make rules that effect all our lives. These people just spout shit they know nothing about and we keep re-electing them over and over"
Tom Price is my congressperson. I might have known he would say something stupid (he led the drill, drill drill charade). But he did get his vote right for once.
Posted by: me | Sep 30, 2008 9:43:44 AM
Drill, drill, drill looked pretty stupid yesterday when oil plunged $10 on the day. Actually it looked stupid every time Kudlow said it.
Dead Cat Bounce or Smashed Egg Bounce? Only time will tell. It's a good day to trade small.
While we are still on the subject of the CRASH, I have a question: was it REALLY a crash? I am curious as to how people feel about yesterday, especially as most of us do not think this is the bottom.
What I mean is, ignoring the big numbers, did yesterday have the psychological impact of 1929 or 1987's crash events? My gut feeling is no. The selling seemed to be orderly, it wasn't all "sell everything" action, and there was no sudden sickening downward acceleration phase.
I bet it wasn't a good day to be a long-only fund manager, though...
Posted by: leftback | Sep 30, 2008 10:00:44 AM
These breathless headlines are horseshit. It's word devaluation not unlike dollar devaluation.
If it gets really bad in the real economy, and not just on Wall Street, then the headlines will be gloomy, but hopeful, because real troubles in the place where real value is created will be sobering enough that there will be no need to shout.
But this ain't the Great Depression, not even close. Whether evaluated on income, employment, industrial output, money supply...etc., this doesn't remotely approach the Great Depression. Example--within eighteen months of the crash of '29, unemployment was roughly 25%, from a low of about 3% in April of '29. See http://bhamblog.typepad.com/the_curmudgeon/2008/09/this-is-not-your-grandfathers-financial-panic.html
These headlines are just buying opportunities for those brave enough and smart enough to know what to buy and when.
Posted by: Donkei | Sep 30, 2008 10:07:09 AM
Bottom line: we get the government we deserve.
We voted for these people. We were content to surf the net and watch Desperate Housewives in isolation instead of joining the Elks or Kiwanis or Rotary and getting "plugged in" to grassroots politics the old fashioned way. It's no coincidence that the service clubs that burgeoned during the heyday of the Depression Era/WWII generation are dying.
We brought this upon ourselves. Shame on us.
Posted by: Hamlet's Dead Daddy | Sep 30, 2008 10:08:45 AM
This wasn't a crash, unless there have been 16 previous market crashes (since this was only the 17th largest percentage decline). It was simply a very bad day, but to call it a crash is to minimize actual previous (or future) market crashes.
Posted by: Andrew | Sep 30, 2008 10:11:22 AM
