Intrade Opens VP Palin Withdrawal Contract
Last week, we looked at the track record of Intrade regarding the VP nominees.
Since then, its been an eventful few days.
The Intrade prediction market has opened trading on whether "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election." (Note: I am more concerned with the futures market than I am with the politics. Please keep this focused).
Current odds: 14.3%
What do you think the odds are?
UPDATE: Spetember 2, 2008 8:52pm
Bloomberg article: McCain More Likely to Drop Palin, Bookmakers Say
The smart money thinks there's a better chance today than yesterday that John McCain will dump Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate.
Before the Republican senator's presidential campaign disclosed the pregnancy of Palin's 17-year-old daughter, bookmakers in Britain and Ireland were offering 20-1 odds or higher on a bet that she would be forced off the ticket, meaning a 1 pound ($1.78) bet would pay 20 pounds. Now that same bet will pay no more than 8 pounds.
"While it is rare that a VP candidate gets dropped, it's not completely impossible,'' said Ken Robertson, political betting analyst at Paddy Power Plc, a Dublin-based gambling company. ``Lots of our punters are betting `Shocking' Sarah's days are numbered,'' he added, using a nickname he came up with for the first-term Alaska governor.
The odds, based on wagers made online with Paddy Power and William Hill Plc and in their betting shops, also suggest that McCain is less likely to win the White House because of his vice-presidential running-mate choice, announced Aug. 29. Both gambling houses, along with rival Ladbrokes Plc, place Democrat Barack Obama, 47, as the favorite to triumph in the contest.
Tuesday, September 02, 2008 | 04:17 PM | Permalink
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My conclusion from this nominee - McCain wants to lose the election. Who picks a VP that they only met once? One that has absolutely no clue about foreign policy, that only recently obtained a passport? McCain knows how bad the economy will be and wants no part of being president.
Posted by: Steve Barry | Sep 2, 2008 4:24:46 PM
Barry,
I am a big fan of your market musings. I just have to wonder who slipped you the libby micky.
Palin withdrawal contract? Sounds a bit bitter if you ask me (don't respond with an weak explanation that you are "just reporting it is in existence"...etc.).
McCain pulled a rabbit out of his hat and the LEFT is BLOWN AWAY. Evidence of that fact? You AND MOST EVERYBODY ELSE are typing the name PALIN.
Why don't you highlight the fact that six short weeks ago Obama was at 68 and McCain at 30. Now Obama (post CONVENTION bump) is at 60 with McCain at 40?
~~~
BR: I have posted EXTENSIVELY on the fallibility of markets in general, and prediction markets specifically. (I've been frequently quoted on the subject). This is a natural subject for me to discuss.
Politics is NOT my beat, but markets certainly are.
But since YOU brought up the polls, it was a statistical dead heat 10 days ago, and now its a 50-42% race. (Don't even try to cherry pick data points with me, son).
Posted by: Kirk | Sep 2, 2008 4:34:15 PM
Palin is a fake candidate; a distraction announced the day after Obama's historic speech.
She is there to create a mountain of talking points, only to be "harassed" by the democrats into withdrawing so that a real VP can be nominated.
However, McCain will then have to find someone else willing to say "yes"!
Posted by: wnsrfr | Sep 2, 2008 4:35:54 PM
Withdrawal? Already?
Wouldn't that be premature?
The press hasn't had nearly enough fun yet.
Posted by: leftback | Sep 2, 2008 4:36:37 PM
not a bad bet. apparently, she has participated in "anti-american" activities: http://tinyurl.com/6ayhgc
Posted by: tranchefoot | Sep 2, 2008 4:38:34 PM
@Kirk: This election is obviously a referendum on the intelligence of the American voter. With your comments, you're clearly not passing that test.......
At no time was Obama at "68" and McCain "38" and isn't at "60"/"40" now. You're entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts.
The reason that Dem voters are horrified by this pick is that we're rightfully afraid of what will become of this country if McCain croaks and this woman becomes president. I would be fine with McCain winning if he had chosen someone (even Mitt) who could step in and do a decent job with national security and foreign policy in the event that McCain passes. This isn't a superficial sporting event but arguably the most important election of our lifetimes. This pick just makes a mockery of our country and puts us in peril if she somehow slides into the presidency spot.
Posted by: Jeff M. | Sep 2, 2008 4:41:37 PM
Whew, these comments read like a political blog site. Amazing how people take politics so personal.
From a pure trade point-of-view, the Palin withdrawal trade on Intrade is a little strong at 14.3% IMHO. Should be fun to watch it trade through the rest of the week. I suspect she is long for the campaign.
Careful out there mixing personal feelings with a trade, it'll get you every time.
Seacrest out.
Posted by: PHB | Sep 2, 2008 4:48:50 PM
Now, to think that McCain's people did not already have this knowledge of the daughters discression is ludicrous. Let's face it, the pro-life, pro-choice camps are a miniscule amount of votes, most the votes lay inbetween. Hence, real-life dictates real choices. I find this a plus for Palin and the Republicans.
Posted by: JustinTheSkeptic | Sep 2, 2008 4:48:57 PM
As much as I hate to talk politics, I'm not surprised. Come on.. a runner up beauty queen, ex-sports reporter, ex-mayor of a little town in Alaska who may have never been outside the US, as 2nd in command to a very old President? You can't make stuff like that up..no wait you can....The comedy "Legally Blonde" comes to mind.
Posted by: SteveC | Sep 2, 2008 4:49:41 PM
There is so much wrong with Palin ( the gift that keeps on giving to the Dems ) but this one took the cake.
Palin: US Soldiers on a Task from God
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/2/142031/1310/280/583488
McCain has jumped the shark !
This assclown will do anything ( including selling out America ) to try and get elected.
BTW, the Muslim world is also reading closely so you think the US has economic problems now....wait until Mideast oil nations stop buying America's treasury notes and see the USA go quickly into a depression.
Palin is done because American big monied interests trump the American evangelical nutjobs.
And stick a fork in McCain - he's also done.
Posted by: km4 | Sep 2, 2008 4:54:27 PM
Check out this pic of Palin. I don't know if its photoshopped but it is sure funny.
http://www.kunstler.com/
Posted by: johnnyvee | Sep 2, 2008 4:56:40 PM
Could be interesting if McCain introduces his real VP pick at the Republican Convention. Palin herself could withdraw herself on the basis that the media has has completely invaded her personal life to the point of insanity. I'm sorry, but the media seemed to be a little to much... the last few days... espically CNN.
Plus, McCain could just be using this Palin-Pick to highlight why it's important that the person becoming President has experience to lead. Imagine a statement from the old guy... "American wake-up, I might be old... but the President of the United States is required on Day One to be ready to lead, and to make key decisions about the economy, America's security and the direction in which America should go."
Posted by: Matthew | Sep 2, 2008 5:00:12 PM
Phil Gramm Says McCain Supporters Aren't `Whiners':
-- Phil Gramm excluded John McCain supporters from his description of Americans as ``a nation of whiners,'' the characterization that forced his exit from the Republican presidential candidate's campaign in July.
``If you're sitting here today, you're not economically illiterate and you're not a whiner, so I'm not worried about who you're going to vote for,'' the former Texas senator told attendees at a Financial Services Roundtable event in Minneapolis on the sidelines of the Republican National Convention.
Gramm, 66, a vice chairman of UBS Securities LLC, stepped down as a co-chairman of the McCain campaign in July after telling the Washington Times that the U.S. is a ``nation of whiners'' facing a ``mental recession.''
In reaction to today's comments, Democratic nominee Barack Obama's campaign spokesman Tommy Vietor said, ``The man who wrote John McCain's economic plan further insulted struggling Americans by suggesting that if they are not attending the Republican Convention, they are not only whiners, but economically illiterate.''
Many of those who attended the event came from the financial community, including representatives of Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp and the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.
Obama's Response
Obama, in his nomination acceptance speech in Denver last week, referred to Gramm's July remarks, and pointed to ``proud auto workers'' in Michigan and military families shouldering the burden of family members deployed to war zones overseas.
``These are not whiners,'' Obama said. ``They work hard and give back and keep going without complaint.''
After Gramm's July comments, McCain said, ``Phil Gramm does not speak for me. I speak for me, so I strongly disagree.'' People are not whining, he said, adding that ``America is in great difficulty.''
At today's event, Gramm also defended McCain's selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his vice presidential running mate.
``We went through a process of vetting all possible candidates,'' narrowing it down to three before choosing Palin, he said.
When asked later whether he still has a role in the campaign, Gramm said, ``I'm a supporter.''
Posted by: Phil Gramm | Sep 2, 2008 5:00:35 PM
My guess is that he will keep her on the ticket. She is his "soulmate" you know, and he won't want to admit he might have made a mistake.
Agree, she is getting a lot of attention and ink. However, it is scary as hell to think of her one heartbeat away from the presidency. What was he thinking?
Posted by: JWC | Sep 2, 2008 5:03:12 PM
Ignore the deadender Rethuglican McSame supporters. Theirs is a world of selfish, self-imposed ignorance that they would like to foist 4 more years upon the rest of us.
I hold up my hand these fine fellows and ask them to 'read between the lines' (or fingers as it were).
Posted by: pbriggsiam | Sep 2, 2008 5:16:45 PM
I called this Harriet Miers II a day after I first heard it. Pick some unknown-history under-the-radar somebody and when their history becomes public knowledge, they end up running with tail between their legs.
If I wasn't all in short BAC right now, I'd buy the InTrade contract.
Posted by: Mike J | Sep 2, 2008 5:18:11 PM
What happened to the "family values" Republicans adhere to. Is out-of-wedlock sex and child-birth now being condoned.
Posted by: winslow | Sep 2, 2008 5:21:12 PM
Palin will get the axe and the real hat trick will be Condi....you watch.
Posted by: Yves | Sep 2, 2008 5:24:31 PM
I think we ought to put aside all the political stuff for just a moment and look at the choice as a reflection of how McCain works through decisions. If the choice of Palin as Vice President is representative, it doesn't say much.
Listen, NO ONE with half a brain and the ability to test reality can think this is a good choice! I agree that much of the media coverage has focussed on irrelevancies--her daughter, her husband's DUI(there are millions of folks out there who either HAVE DUI's or in an honest moment will tell you they would if they had just been stopped that ONE time) none of that really matters in the long run.
What makes her an abysmal pick is she very likely knows NOTHING about the Federal Government and how it runs. If she did, would she utter such a complacently stupid comment about someone please telling her "what a Vice President does all day?" That comment alone should disqualify her. When you add it to the lies about how she told Congress she didn't want the money for the "bridge to nowhere", giving the people of Alaska an increased oil dividend because the price of oil went up(it's dishonest because she glides over the fact that she and the legislature imposed a windfall profits tax on the oil companies--I wonder how likely that information is to get into a McCain ad.
I don't know if this is a sign the McCain has lost a bit of mental acuity, but when you compare Palin to the wealth of candidates he might have picked from, you have to wonder.
Posted by: carwinrpc | Sep 2, 2008 5:28:17 PM
"Check out this pic of Palin. I don't know if its photoshopped but it is sure funny.
http://www.kunstler.com/"
Oh my. The Republicans better hope that's photo shopped. At least it's safe for work but it won't go over too well.
Posted by: BobC | Sep 2, 2008 5:32:10 PM
I'd sell as many of those as I could find bids for.
You Obama nuts have no idea how this pick is resonating among the "bitter Americans who cling to guns and religion" crowd. They're just suiting up now to take the field.
And there are a lot more of them than you.
Sold to you!
Posted by: txchick57 | Sep 2, 2008 5:35:49 PM
Man, I hate politics. It's all about the "gotcha" moment for both sides anyways.
Liberals get there talking points from the Huffpo and dailykos blog shrill crew that just love to make stuff up to rally their minions. Facts and truth be damned!
The right listens to Limbaugh and Ingram and gets indoctrined that the other side is so out of touch.
It's all nonsense. I wonder when Americans will get the hint that the gov't is doing this stuff on purpose to keep us from talking about the real issues and real change.
We're all idiots for the getting involved in the stupid political food fights.
Face facts that there is only a small difference between these two candidates and in the end whoever gets elected won't really be working for any of us anyway.
This post won't change a thing cause humans are too stupid to see the truth.
Posted by: geckoman | Sep 2, 2008 5:39:15 PM
Man, I hate politics. It's all about the "gotcha" moment for both sides anyways.
Liberals get there talking points from the Huffpo and dailykos blog shrill crew that just love to make stuff up to rally their minions. Facts and truth be damned!
The right listens to Limbaugh and Ingram and gets indoctrined that the other side is so out of touch.
It's all nonsense. I wonder when Americans will get the hint that the gov't is doing this stuff on purpose to keep us from talking about the real issues and real change.
We're all idiots for the getting involved in the stupid political food fights.
Face facts that there is only a small difference between these two candidates and in the end whoever gets elected won't really be working for any of us anyway.
This post won't change a thing cause humans are too stupid to see the truth.
Posted by: geckoman | Sep 2, 2008 5:39:56 PM
@txchick57: My opinion has nothing to do with being an "Obama nut" (although I clearly favor him to the alternative for obvious reason) but if you're right, this ignorant, moronic nation deserves everything it gets.
I'm willing to bet that you're wrong though - big numbers of angry voters will favor O this year. That's the real story that traditional polling cannot measure.
Posted by: Jeff M. | Sep 2, 2008 5:42:36 PM
does the name Harriet Myers ring a bell?
Posted by: kyle | Sep 2, 2008 5:42:36 PM
