Intrade Opens VP Palin Withdrawal Contract

Tuesday, September 02, 2008 | 04:17 PM

Last week, we looked at the track record of Intrade regarding the VP nominees.

Since then, its been an eventful few days.

The Intrade prediction market has opened trading on whether "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election." (Note: I am more concerned with the futures market than I am with the politics. Please keep this focused).

Current odds:  14.3%

Vp_palin_wd



What do you think the odds are?

UPDATE: Spetember 2, 2008 8:52pm

Bloomberg article: McCain More Likely to Drop Palin, Bookmakers Say

The smart money thinks there's a better chance today than yesterday that John McCain will dump Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate.

Before the Republican senator's presidential campaign disclosed the pregnancy of Palin's 17-year-old daughter, bookmakers in Britain and Ireland were offering 20-1 odds or higher on a bet that she would be forced off the ticket, meaning a 1 pound ($1.78) bet would pay 20 pounds. Now that same bet will pay no more than 8 pounds.

"While it is rare that a VP candidate gets dropped, it's not completely impossible,'' said Ken Robertson, political betting analyst at Paddy Power Plc, a Dublin-based gambling company. ``Lots of our punters are betting `Shocking' Sarah's days are numbered,'' he added, using a nickname he came up with for the first-term Alaska governor.

The odds, based on wagers made online with Paddy Power and William Hill Plc and in their betting shops, also suggest that McCain is less likely to win the White House because of his vice-presidential running-mate choice, announced Aug. 29. Both gambling houses, along with rival Ladbrokes Plc, place Democrat Barack Obama, 47, as the favorite to triumph in the contest.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008 | 04:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (134) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

The spread seems a bit stiff, but still probably worth a sale or two. A lot of the commenters here are saying that she'll have to withdraw by citing some scandal or media pressure or something, but I fail to see how any of that matters. There is very little short of an indictment that would require her to drop out; from her previous history, and judging by the ecstatic reception she is getting from the conservatives in the Republican Party, shorting this contract looks like a pretty safe bet to me.
McCain is angling to run a reform ticket, which appeals as much to Republicans who are sick of Bush as it does to independents. Palin strengthens that story. McCain's giving up the 'experience' talking point because it was essentially a losing position, for all the armchair pundits think it powerful. Obama wins in a change vs. experience election. But now, McCain is change too! I think it was a masterful deep post pattern; but it's way too early to know the outcome.

Posted by: CounterClckWise | Sep 3, 2008 1:32:27 AM

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