NFP is . . . -84k!
I'm out of pocket at 8:30am, so feel free to post comments about NFP and any related data . . .
Back in the Saddle, with a few quick notes and charts:
100k job loss! We now have had out 1st 100k month, in that the revisions for June brought the number from 51k to 100k even.
Unemployment Rate: now has a 6 handle on it -- 6.1% is the official number. Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Keith Hall stated that while previous joblessness gains were concentrated among teens, last month "workers age 25 and over accounted for all of the increase in unemployment."
Temporary Help: Was off 1.5% from July to August, and down more than 9% from August 2007.
Household Survey: Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 2.2 million and the unemployment rate has risen by 1.4 percentage points, with most of the increase occurring over the past 4 months.
Real GDP: ISI noted that the recent level of continuing unemployment claims is consistent with a 1.0% Real GDP in 3Q. In light of this report and the recent revisions, I would guess that is optimistic.
Recession: William Poole, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: "It certainly increases the probability that we really are in a recession. It is a weak number, including the revisions.''
Birth Death Adjustment: August 2007 = 102k; August 2008 = 125k -- There is an almost a reasonable explanation for this: B/D relies in some part on State incorporation filings. 100k people get laid off, and a big chunk of them start working for themselves as freelancers/independent contractors. They incorporate so they don't lose their house if the business goes belly up.
Hence, the more layoffs, the potentially greater B/D adjustments.
>
Monthly/Yearly Changes, NFP
chart courtesy of Barron's Econoday
>
NFP Yearly Changes, with B/D
chart courtesy of Jake at Econompic
>
Sources:
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: AUGUST 2008
BLS, Septmber 5, 2008
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Friday, September 05, 2008 | 08:30 AM | Permalink
| Comments (60)
| TrackBack (0)
add to de.li.cious | 
digg this! | 
add to technorati | 
email this post
TrackBack
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef00e555018f008834
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference NFP is . . . -84k!:
Comments
-84000
6.1%
B/D added 125000
oy.
Looks like the coast is clear for the Fed to cut again . . .
Posted by: Mike J | Sep 5, 2008 8:33:35 AM
The unemployment rate rose from 5.7 to 6.1 percent in August, and non-
farm payroll employment continued to trend down (-84,000), the Bureau of
Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. In August,
employment fell in manufacturing and employment services, while mining and
health care continued to add jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents,
or 0.4 percent, over the month.
Posted by: Dale | Sep 5, 2008 8:35:20 AM
-84,000
6.1%
Downward revisions to June, July.
Posted by: safe_as_apartments | Sep 5, 2008 8:35:57 AM
minus 84,000 and doofus Joe Kernan on CNBS this am...."not too bad"...my fondest wish would be for all this airheads on that lousy channel get their walking papers....then I would like to hear their comments......
Posted by: grumpyoldvet | Sep 5, 2008 8:41:25 AM
Fed funds now pricing in no chance of rate increase till early 09.
I can't believe this is a surprise to anyone.
Posted by: Vermont Trader | Sep 5, 2008 8:44:48 AM
I am wondering....have we ever gone from plus 3.3 per cent gdp to negative 3.3 per cent gdp in one quarter??
Just a thought..
I think that Steve Leisman looks less and less happy every time he is on at the same time as Rick Santelli...Santelli's read of the tea leaves is basically right, and poor Steve has to sit on the air and look happy about his poor prognostication every week...
Maybe he should have majored in something besides journalism...
Bruce in Tennessee
Posted by: Bruce | Sep 5, 2008 8:47:14 AM
The birth/death adjustment was +125,000, including 16,000 new construction jobs and 9,000 new financial services jobs. These are all fake. They didn't happen and will be adjusted out a year from now. The real job loss is over 200,000.
Posted by: JGQ | Sep 5, 2008 8:47:45 AM
june revised to -100k from -51k
Posted by: bretttug | Sep 5, 2008 8:50:39 AM
Come back Barry. TODAY.
This is no time to be out of pocket. We need you TODAY. Live blogging, site traffic mentioning, asshat calling, numbers apart tearing, TODAY, especially TODAY, more than any day TODAY.
Posted by: Michael M | Sep 5, 2008 8:59:28 AM
Since there are literal (New England Patriots) chearleaders on CNBC this morning, it must have been a great report. Plus, I've been led to believe there's always a bull market somewhere and that the taxpayer is about to give Bill Gross a bailout and a pony.
Posted by: Namazu | Sep 5, 2008 9:06:14 AM
The u-6 figure of 10.7% is much closer to the real unemployment rate.... 10.7%
Posted by: Stuart | Sep 5, 2008 9:08:30 AM
84k and the number was COOKED! From a friend much smarter than I...
In August the BLS once again generated an unrealistic number of jobs via its Birth/Death Model.
Though 84k jobs were lost, the hokey B/D model created 125,000; last August its created 102,000 jobs.
Once again, and it has been the case for most of 2008, the BLS’s ridiculous B/D Model is creating more jobs per month than it did in 2007, when the economy was far stronger.
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
Posted by: Mr Mortgage | Sep 5, 2008 9:09:07 AM
If it had been a great report, we'd see Kudlow up there instead cheerleading. Since nothing to pump... CNBC once again showing its colors.
Posted by: Stuart | Sep 5, 2008 9:10:48 AM
We're lucky GDP was capped at +3.3% - if it had come in much higher we'd all be out of a job.
Posted by: Winston Munn | Sep 5, 2008 9:12:15 AM
with the expected manipulated gov't reporting, what is the real unemployment rate?
Posted by: Lin | Sep 5, 2008 9:12:50 AM
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--A bleak jobs report pushed U.S. interest rate futures prices over the edge Friday, eliminating expectations for an increase in the key short-term federal-funds lending rate for the remainder of this year and into early 2009.
The September through February federal-funds futures contract prices rose to about 98.00, equivalent to the current 2% funds rate. The November and January fed-funds contract moved above the 98.00 level, pricing in very slight expectations for the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee to reduce the funds rate. The November contract recently priced in about a 4% chance for a quarter percentage point rate cut to 1.75%, while the January contact priced in about a 10% chance for an ease to occur by the end of this year. The final three FOMC meetings for 2008 are scheduled for Sept. 16, Oct. 28-29, and Dec. 16. The February fed-funds contract recently priced in a little less than a 10% chance that a quarter percentage point cut will happen by the FOMC's first meeting next year, set for Jan. 27-28.
Posted by: Vermont Trader | Sep 5, 2008 9:15:25 AM
household survey down 342k mo/mo!
Posted by: Vermont Trader | Sep 5, 2008 9:18:06 AM
Goes to show how completely "cooked" the GDP figure was. The credibility of gov't stats is disappearing faster than home equity.
Incredible.... they actually added construction and financial jobs this month...
Posted by: Stuart | Sep 5, 2008 9:19:05 AM
thanks Stuart, just read your post.
Posted by: Lin | Sep 5, 2008 9:19:42 AM
GrumpyOldVet-- Ditto. No Doubt a couple of the CNBS Ass-Clowns-- the July 14 bottom callers-- will turn todays 'Market Action' on it's ear and claim it's yet another 'buying opportunity'-- especially in Financials.
But hey. So What.
Because as most everyone here would agree, they're Irrelevant to this Market.
Posted by: John | Sep 5, 2008 9:23:32 AM
The Financial Press, are bringing out the bottom callers once again! But the Callers, always use sentiment data to support their arguements. If they would only look at the Macro picture then it would become obvious that this Pig warrents no lip-stick.
Posted by: JustinTheSkeptic | Sep 5, 2008 9:23:58 AM
A comment I haven't seen anywhere is that the birth death model is actually ADDING jobs at a faster rate this year than last year, even though we know the economy is slowing down since last year. This is how blatantly absurd this calculation is. So not only is the model questionable in absolute terms, relative to last year, it's skewing/torturing the real data even that much worse. Stunning to still hear analysts accept at face value this data. Must be card carrying members of the flat earth society.
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
Posted by: Stuart | Sep 5, 2008 9:28:07 AM
Stuart is completely correct. Looking around does anyone see ANY job creation going on? It is one way traffic out the door. These tools at BLS have been claiming ADDED jobs in construction and finance in the last few months. Do they think we are stupid..?
Game on today. Mortgage delinquency data at 10, I think it is...
$ weaker after an incredible run. Watch gold start to move.
Posted by: leftback | Sep 5, 2008 9:33:27 AM
This is going to be one of those days where the news is all negative and the DOW goes up 150 points.
Posted by: E | Sep 5, 2008 9:36:57 AM
Where does one find revisions?
From what I'm hearing, combining the revisions with the August number puts us well past the 100k mark.
Posted by: Mike J | Sep 5, 2008 9:37:40 AM
