Baltic Dry Index (Woof!)
In the dictionary, next to word "Ugly" -- is the Baltic Dry Index: Down 85% peak to trough, down 79% YTD.
Can you say Global Recession? I knew you could!
Thursday, October 16, 2008 | 12:00 PM | Permalink
| Comments (54)
| TrackBack (0)
add to de.li.cious | 
digg this! | 
add to technorati | 
email this post
TrackBack
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef01053585aedc970b
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Baltic Dry Index (Woof!):
Comments
The LOC market is now closed for business. See you next year or five.
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Oct 16, 2008 12:07:52 PM
"Can you Global Recession"
Is that a dance, like the Monster Mash?
Posted by: a different chris | Oct 16, 2008 12:12:26 PM
Oh, good! Less cheap crap from China in the stores. Yay!
I hate cheap crap from China...
Posted by: donna | Oct 16, 2008 12:14:05 PM
Funny you should ask that, Barry.
SPECTRE of deflation is announcing The Global Recession on Steroids: Living in Caves on Scraps and Gathering Fungi, Roots and Berries.
Seriously SPECTRE is right about a lot of things. Lending is frozen and it is not going to open up until people can get a much higher return, so the end of the era of easy money is officially here. It's going to be a good thing to have piles of cash if you want to buy a car. A job will be useful too.
That graph is some serious cliff diving. If only that were the end of it. Unfortunately there are new problems ahead of us and I don't mean the stock market.
Posted by: leftback | Oct 16, 2008 12:16:31 PM
Donna, it will be a real surprise when the cargo ship docks and is ready to be offloaded and we find they literally sent us shit to make a point.
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Oct 16, 2008 12:17:22 PM
Isn't that turning into another one of your contrary charts?
Pushing 3-5 year lows there
Posted by: DavidB | Oct 16, 2008 12:20:52 PM
Undoubtedly, shippers have priced in a global depression that is led by developed emerging markets, ie BRIC.
Posted by: reaer | Oct 16, 2008 12:21:48 PM
leftback, ya but my cave has carpet and central air and we eat porcini mushrooms and not fungi. :>)! I also have plenty of cash because anyone who has studied history knows cash is king.
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Oct 16, 2008 12:22:09 PM
Balderdash! Ex-Wall Street Mortgage Bond traders are stowing away in the ship's hold - taking up all that space where stuff used to go - to escape to Dubai, Mumbai, Shanghai, etc.
Posted by: VennData | Oct 16, 2008 12:22:40 PM
Donna - not likely. The BDI is "dry" freight - ores, oil, grain, etc. Freight shipping is extremely cyclical. Isn't the rule something like one good year in a 5 year cycle? It boomed in 2007, will be about mid level this year, so 2 -3 years down? Coincides with 2 year estimate some say until recovery.
Posted by: Sinomania! | Oct 16, 2008 12:24:58 PM
I can Global Recession! How about you?!
Yeeeeeeaaayyyy Team!
Posted by: xon | Oct 16, 2008 12:26:37 PM
SPY gonna look like that chart, heading for the '02 lows
Posted by: scorpio | Oct 16, 2008 12:33:11 PM
Of course, the result of this cliff dive (which is also seen in the price of many of the commodities shipped) will be a rapid drop in capacity investment, which will set up the next cycle.
Posted by: Estragon | Oct 16, 2008 12:39:27 PM
global recession? Hell, no!
GLOBAL DEPRESSION!!!!
Posted by: João Carlos | Oct 16, 2008 12:44:19 PM
"I hate cheap crap from China"
you mean.. the computer you're typing on, the tv you're watching, a healthy percentage of your US corporation profits, the clothes you're wearing, the hardware all throughout your house.... ?
You are the cheap crap from China Donna... we all are. We made them. Get used to it. Just hope and pray the don't decide to quit shipping us stuff we can't pay for.
Posted by: Bob A | Oct 16, 2008 12:45:47 PM
"DOW SP500 Bottom October 2008 Market alert (signal, call, etc): we interrupt regular blogging to announce that the market has just given a second chance bottom signal for those who missed the bottomed last Friday:
11:14AM, October 16, 2008, we are at a stock market bottom.
A rally is around the corner. We do not know what justification they will give for it, but they usually do give explanations. Markets have nothing to do with those justifications!"
http://www.marketwarnings.com/2008/10/dow-sp500-bottom-october-2008-october.html
Posted by: jim | Oct 16, 2008 12:49:10 PM
Flaccid is the word that comes to mind...
Posted by: me | Oct 16, 2008 12:49:25 PM
I guess that means people have stopped eating. If people have stopped eating, airfares will be cheaper. If airfares are cheaper more people will leave the country. If more people leave the country, the bankers will have to tax themselves to pay themselves. Works out nicely. . . until the international bankers impose an international tax on the pretext of saving us from some massive global threat.
Posted by: Giorg from Latvia | Oct 16, 2008 12:53:02 PM
""Can you Global Recession"
Is that a dance, like the Monster Mash?
Posted by: a different chris | Oct 16, 2008 12:12:26 PM"
Shake it baby! Shake it!
LOL
Posted by: JoJo | Oct 16, 2008 12:53:13 PM
It makes you wonder who was on the other side of that trade. Amazing..
Posted by: Emini Addict | Oct 16, 2008 1:03:47 PM
That chart is a couple days out of date. BDI is at 1,506
Posted by: Josh | Oct 16, 2008 1:14:24 PM
It is certainly not a good sign for the world economy, but I think it is exaggerated: as shipping credit is frozen (as all the rest of international credit finance), the shipping transactions are probably also temporarily frozen.
To be true, also energy has dropped.
Ships are still sailing the seas and transporting goods, probably at sharply lower prices. But not -85% lower than a year ago.
This index is flawed,
This being said, a depression is priced in, the end of BRIC, the end of the world etc. In one year, we will probably look at this indicator and think "how could we believe these end of the world stories".
Nice contrarian indicator
Posted by: Geert | Oct 16, 2008 1:24:06 PM
Steel...shipping..oil... all fantastic trend-trading sectors that every few years people forget and try to make a long term investment thesis around. I get spammed every other day from the Motley Fool focusing on DRYS...MOS...FCX etc..same deep cyclical trend stocks for the last 70% down. The Motley Fools incinerate more capital than 98% of traders out there, but they seem to get a free pass because they pretend their educating the public....marketing...marketing..marketing!
Posted by: Matt M. | Oct 16, 2008 1:31:10 PM
Barry, put up a ten-year chart. It's still a dive, but you get more perspective.
ScottB
Posted by: ScottB | Oct 16, 2008 1:37:05 PM
Doh! Scratch that last one. It's ugly any way you look at it.
ScottB
Posted by: ScottB | Oct 16, 2008 1:38:31 PM
