Contrary Cramer Buy Call ?
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As I have said in the past, I don't like to harp on any one person. I also don't want to be a Cramer stalker. But DAMN if that headline doesn't smell like a giant buy signal.
The market down 30%, the VIX spiking to 56, and Cramer giving a panicky SELL on TV this morning. We have a 9,500 downside target, and the likelihood of an emergency action makes us want to get long -- at least for a trade . . .
We are putting a toe in the water here.
Update: October 7, 2008 1:25pm
Doh! Stopped out!
Source:
Jim Cramer: Time to get out of the stock market
Michael Inbar
TODAYShow.com, October 6, 2008
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27045699/
Click here for video
Monday, October 06, 2008 | 11:30 AM | Permalink
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Comments
Poor, poor Cramer. He gets everything wrong. What happened to his call that we had seen the bottom a few months ago?
Posted by: Myr | Oct 6, 2008 11:32:53 AM
Cramer said if the bailout didn't pass, the market would hit 7500.
Now we're at 9900, and he's calling for 20% losses.
Brilliant!
Posted by: jmay | Oct 6, 2008 11:35:58 AM
I saw that as well. I'm tempted but I dunno. This feels different. Might nibble in tiny increments but I think we've got a ways to go down.
What would be the impetus for a bounce? Would a coordinated rate cut around the world be enough to stop this barreling D-Train? I'm skeptical.
Posted by: Jeff M. | Oct 6, 2008 11:37:43 AM
Luskin is still positive though. Until Luskin throws in the towel, it is not safe to buy.
Posted by: JT | Oct 6, 2008 11:37:56 AM
you could be right.
looks like Fuld is going to play victim. Wouldn't you like to see one of these guys just say, "man, I just really screwed up big time"?
Posted by: cloudy | Oct 6, 2008 11:40:05 AM
And even if this is the low of the year and we rally 1000 points,
Cramer will still be around.....WHY?????
Posted by: bud Fox | Oct 6, 2008 11:40:19 AM
Wonder what dumb ass sound effects he'll play for this...maybe he'll quit acting like he is a trader and roll down his shirt sleeves. Nah, the shtick is what sells on our beloved comedy channel CNBC.
Posted by: PHB | Oct 6, 2008 11:40:24 AM
have to trust this indicator!!
Posted by: will | Oct 6, 2008 11:42:35 AM
We must still be far from a bottom because Cramer still has air time and TOL trades above $7. :)
Posted by: karen | Oct 6, 2008 11:42:43 AM
The two best valuation measures we know of--cyclically adjusted P/Es and Tobin's Q--suggest US stocks are still well above their long-term averages. According to these measures of value, the S&P 500 would need to fall to 750 to get back to median or normal valuations.
Yale professor Robert Shiller was correct in calling both the housing bubble and the tech bubble, so I take solace when he says stock prices are still overvalued and offer little compensation for the risk one has to bear.
Posted by: Freddie Big Mac | Oct 6, 2008 11:42:44 AM
maybe a bounce but in all due respect the entire move from 2003-2007 was a gigantic ponzi scheme. one could also argue that the 2003 lows were not sufficient enough for a bear bottom since the housing bubble was just starting to really percolate. true bear lows bottom with single digit pe's. which was not nearly the case in 2003.
Posted by: harold hecuba | Oct 6, 2008 11:45:05 AM
If you really want to get a laugh, check out Cramer's Top 10 predictions for 2008:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/58745-jim-cramer-s-10-predictions-for-2008
Sorry, Barry, it's from Seeking Alpha. I'm on your side in that battle.
Anyway, prediction No. 1: Goldman Sachs ends the year at $300. What is it at now? 118 or something?
I just tried to get a quote on BusinessWeek.com, but their stock quote server is overwhelmed right now.
Posted by: Monica Starr | Oct 6, 2008 11:45:12 AM
Monday October 27th at the close will be the buying opportunity. It may just be a tradeable rally in the bear market, but it will happen.
Don't ask me how I know, I just know.
Posted by: Jay Weinstein | Oct 6, 2008 11:45:19 AM
If Cramer says SELL and Erin or Dennis cries, we should all go long...
Posted by: leftback | Oct 6, 2008 11:45:22 AM
Or, if Luskin decides to jump out the window.
I have noticed a tinge of CNBC optimism in your last two posts, Bar. Say it ain't so. We have barely dipped our toe in the Dow 10,000 Marginot line and we are a long way from Paris.
Posted by: CNBC Sucks | Oct 6, 2008 11:46:43 AM
This is great news! Thanks, Barry. I've been waiting for this signal for a long time. Meanwhile by Friday, the CDS settlement will be done for Lehman. The Fannie/Freddie settlement today seems to be going fairly well (which is to say the world has not ended so far).
Posted by: PureGuesswork | Oct 6, 2008 11:48:08 AM
Time to buy when they kick Cramer off the air cause no one wants to watch the train wreck any more...
Posted by: donna | Oct 6, 2008 11:48:50 AM
JT @ 11:37:56 AM
“Luskin is still positive though. Until Luskin throws in the towel, it is not safe to buy”.
Yes, I’d feel a lot better about going aggressively long if Luskin were bearish. But perhaps he’ll come along in the next couple of weeks.
Posted by: DL | Oct 6, 2008 11:50:54 AM
Both technical and fundamental indicators point to S&P support level of 750. That implies an additional 30% decline
Posted by: Freddie Big Mac | Oct 6, 2008 11:51:50 AM
If Luskin doesn't jump, we should encourage him. I'm sure he can fly, he is so full of hot air. This trading day is something else...
"When the demon is at your door, in the morning it won't be there, no more..."
Posted by: leftback | Oct 6, 2008 11:52:21 AM
karen @ 11:42:43 AM
“We must still be far from a bottom because Cramer still has air time and TOL trades above $7.”
You may be looking for the final bear market bottom. I’m happy with a short-term trading bottom.
Posted by: DL | Oct 6, 2008 11:53:56 AM
Not to worry, after the afternoon dead cat bounce, he'll be back in with gusto pitching United States Steel (or some such)as the next runner. When you predict everything possible outcome happening all at the same time, something is bound to hit.
Posted by: Mark W | Oct 6, 2008 11:57:28 AM
The only fool bigger than Luskin is Dennis Kneale. I simply refuse to watch any program he is on. Complete, total idiot!
I sold all my SDS, QID and EFU when we were down 500+. Don't know if it was the right move, but saved myself $50K against my long positions, so I'll take it. The broad market down 15% in 6 trading days smells like capitualation if I've ever seen it. Can't remember even in the .com crash things being this dire.
Wondering if there is another defensive play I should take if we bounce another 300 - 400 pts from here.
Posted by: jdamon | Oct 6, 2008 11:58:15 AM
tradable bounce? but not the bottom...
Posted by: peterthepainter | Oct 6, 2008 11:59:23 AM
Thanks BR! Great trade-able entry point I guess. I am guessing that I am on the right side if crammer is telling to get out finally! 990 to 1035 on SPYs -- I have been waiting for this range for last 4 years.
I am in -- selling puts on individual stocks and selling vix calls.
Even if I am wrong and I lose money, I am okay. Being on the other side of trade with K&Ks of the world is a great satisfaction.
Posted by: Nihilism | Oct 6, 2008 12:00:02 PM
