Dow 8579
WTF just happened?
Okay, our Dow 10,000, 9500 and now our Dow 9,000 targets have been hit.
Where do we go next -- are we close enough to a bottom to buy, or are we heading much lower?
Dow is now off 39% from its highs.
~~~
This cascading waterfall selloff is ugly. Next key level of support is 8750, where we would again be buyers of the market.
If that does not hold, then we are looking at no support until the 2002 levels -- about 7250. (I may have to dust off that Dow 6,800 call).
As we noted earlier, tomorrow is that huge Lehman derivative settlement, and I wonder how much of this action is due to that.
Thursday, October 09, 2008 | 03:04 PM | Permalink
| Comments (250)
| TrackBack (0)
add to de.li.cious | 
digg this! | 
add to technorati | 
email this post
TrackBack
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef0105356d9551970b
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Dow 8579:
Comments
Somebody owes me 20 bucks!
---------
How long till we get to Dow 9,000?
I have $20.00 on Halloween 2008.
Who's with me?
Posted by: NY stock guy | Sep 18, 2008 1:45:22 PM
Posted by: NY Stock Guy | Oct 9, 2008 3:06:43 PM
Massive selloff of bank stocks. Take your pick, short selling or divestiture due to government purchasing prefered stock and diluting shares.
Posted by: matt_ny | Oct 9, 2008 3:08:21 PM
Paridigm shift. The tectonic kind.
Posted by: AGG | Oct 9, 2008 3:08:53 PM
NY Stock Guy:
You were 20 days off. ;-)
Posted by: Joe Klein's conscience | Oct 9, 2008 3:08:58 PM
The slo-mo train wreck continues, although it's not so slo-mo anymore......
How many big down days can we see in a row before buyers step in?
Posted by: Jeff M. | Oct 9, 2008 3:09:25 PM
Heya Barry, are you still getting crap for your call of DOW 8700 in 2005/6? As far as I can see, you were only off on the timing, not on the reality or the mechanics.
Posted by: IdahoSpud | Oct 9, 2008 3:09:47 PM
Does anyone seriously think DOW 9k is the floor? C'mon....
Wait till next week, when company after company reports sh$tty earnings...
Posted by: Jerry | Oct 9, 2008 3:10:59 PM
Markets over react only after they have reacted enough...
We have lower to go... I'm just surprised it is happening this fast...
Posted by: tm | Oct 9, 2008 3:11:55 PM
Well, I certainly thought that we would have had a snap back rally by now. Now I'm afraid that any rally will be sold into big time.
Having said that, it's probably time to start nibbling, IF you have any powder dry!
Rhyno
Posted by: jeff | Oct 9, 2008 3:13:36 PM
8000 test (knock on wood!)
Posted by: Jay | Oct 9, 2008 3:13:36 PM
Ladies and Gentlemen, mark your calendars:
This was the week when Barry Ritholtz was insufficiently bearish...
Posted by: Empire | Oct 9, 2008 3:13:51 PM
Well, I certainly thought that we would have had a snap back rally by now. Now I'm afraid that any rally will be sold into big time.
Having said that, it's probably time to start nibbling, IF you have any powder dry!
Rhyno
Posted by: jeff | Oct 9, 2008 3:14:15 PM
Meltdown. Panic selling finally come!!!
:)
Posted by: MM | Oct 9, 2008 3:14:25 PM
Based on trading patterns (7 days negative -100 or more, additional all major crashes are proceed by a oversold market) and the events tomorrow if we are going to get a crash it will tomorrow after 2 PM. Which is the worst time cause the circuit breakers do not kick in till -2000 points.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2008/10/the-new-york-st.html
How they work
http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2008/10/whos-got-biggest-derivatives-exposure.html
In Puts (far from the money) OCT 18
All the top 10 for CDS exposure.
Calls on GOLD and FCX.
Posted by: Robert | Oct 9, 2008 3:14:34 PM
Didn't Hank and Paul tell Congress we're days away from economic meltdown? And that was 2-3 weeks ago. Not a good sign that it could be 2-3 weeks before TARP goes into action.
The world is falling apart and I don't see the anything preventing DOW 7500.
Posted by: Kevin | Oct 9, 2008 3:14:37 PM
still seems to be too much complaceny in the markets...
no real fear, no real blood in the streets as the saying goes.
i dont think this is the bottom, so figure a target of 8500 if we close at this level. though ya never know...
Posted by: jhunt | Oct 9, 2008 3:15:25 PM
This is the markets' response to a Swedish style recapitalization? Perhaps they don't want be saved.
Martyrdom for all.
Posted by: Phil | Oct 9, 2008 3:15:32 PM
WHOA, BARRY!
There are a lot of smart commenters hereon (not including YT). The rest of us look to see their input, BUT also expect to see you take the lead and offer your insight (please); else say you too haven't the faintest eff'ing idea, which we know you do, or at least an informed opinion.
Posted by: batmando | Oct 9, 2008 3:16:32 PM
I posted on here I expected a big relief rally and a 50 point fed cut. I got the fed cut, but no rally. I sold my SDS at 87 Monday during the big drop as I was scared we'd have a huge bear market rally. Kicking myself now that SDS is at 104!
I'll sit on the sidelines until I see some upside direction. Fool me once... you know the saying. S&P 500 bottom in the low 800s looks possible.
Posted by: R. Timm | Oct 9, 2008 3:17:04 PM
Stop fishing.. let it go. The picture says it wants to test that 7,500 area. Even them I am not buying til I get some confirmation. This is one bottom I am definitely not going to try and get.
Posted by: ib | Oct 9, 2008 3:17:32 PM
Ladies and Gentlemen, mark your calendars:
This was the week when Barry Ritholtz was insufficiently bearish...
Best and funniest line I've heard all day. ;-)
Posted by: Joe Klein's conscience | Oct 9, 2008 3:17:59 PM
Gold and the Dow to cross at 5000.
Bet on it.
Posted by: MW | Oct 9, 2008 3:18:58 PM
If the market really is "forward looking", then it's going to be a long cold kondriateff winter.
Posted by: AGG | Oct 9, 2008 3:19:29 PM
I'll stick with what I predicted here on 1/2/2008:
The 10 day put call is around .95...long way to go to 1.3 which is a clear buy signal. For 6 months now, anytime QQQQ daily volume rises, the index drops like a rock. The market is rotten to the core. Short interest for the big QQQQ names is nonexistent. From Hussman's site, S&P revenue was 940 per share last year...that is going to drop this year, conservatively to 900. Apply a historically high P/S of 1 to that and the S&P trades at 900. I see 2008 as potentially the worst year in S&P history, which is down over 43% (1931).
Posted by: Steve Barry | Jan 2, 2008 3:41:05 PM
Anybody want to bet against it now? Barry, since I am probably the only person in America who said this might be the worst year in S&P history and can document it, if I am right, I would like a blog thread dedicated to my call.
Posted by: Steve Barry | Oct 9, 2008 3:20:19 PM
Hey, remember back in the beginning of '08, when all those people were on here mocking Barry & gleefully telling us how we were going to lose our shirts, while they were going to be rich from going 100% long during the "correction"? Wonder what happened to those people?
Posted by: Empire | Oct 9, 2008 3:21:48 PM
