How This Bear Compares
Great interactive chart from the NYT on this Bear versus priors:
click for ginormous interactive doohickey
>
Source:
How This Bear Market Compares
Amanda Cox, Xaquín G.V. and David Leonhardt
NYT, October 11, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/10/11/business/20081011_BEAR_MARKETS.html
Monday, October 13, 2008 | 10:32 AM | Permalink
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Comments
Sequoia Capital .PPT for their startups... Nothing we haven't seen, but still pretty interesting viewing..
Posted by: Dr. Kenneth Noisewater | Oct 13, 2008 10:47:51 AM
Barry - Wondering what you're thinking about today's heavy upturn. Previously, you've been skeptical of 300+ point days...
Posted by: SIW | Oct 13, 2008 10:51:44 AM
Hi Steve Barry,
Are you reloading QID?
Posted by: t*sphere*monk | Oct 13, 2008 11:25:15 AM
I have been feeling very bullish as well in the days prior to friday, so finally I acted and put about 25% into the markets.
I had been in cash and bonds since May 1, 07.
When do stocks turn around prior to recession ends?
Posted by: mickslam | Oct 13, 2008 11:42:55 AM
The S&P fell 49% from its high in early October 1929 to its low in November 1929. That's one month, but that's not even on the chart.
Posted by: xc | Oct 13, 2008 12:07:31 PM
The wavers say we have a rally now and then another down cycle, so be careful out there. Buy quality, not "bargains"....
Posted by: donna | Oct 13, 2008 12:12:19 PM
BR, I see your list of 10 is up on RealMoney. You should have added Cramer's panic sell call on CNBC, then it would have gone up to 11.
Posted by: Eric | Oct 13, 2008 12:14:13 PM
You can't compare these bear charts. Some of them had tremdous stock market bull runs on euphoria like in 1929 when the market tripled up in 1 year.
How are those short funds doing for you bears? LOL
Posted by: John Borchers | Oct 13, 2008 12:25:28 PM
How are those short funds doing for you bears? LOL
You mean the SKF I sold @ 194 and SEF @ 105? Pretty darned good I have to say..
(sorry, just felt good to watch them tank after those sweet fills ;)
(and I'm sure the nibbling on INTC and SNHY will be regrettable if industrial/PC demand tanks, but they looked pretty oversold to me..)
Posted by: Dr. Kenneth Noisewater | Oct 13, 2008 12:28:35 PM
Why should I reload QID...I have not sold any...I cannot pay attention to intraday moves, when the Dow could easily move 1000 in either direction.
I'll admit plus 570 sounds impressive, but only half of what it could have done...and there are no shorts to squeeze...let's see if it holds. QQQQ volume is not staggering and JPM is still red somehow. CNBC is back to laughing.
As for the economy, I received two strange phone calls today...one from a tile contractor I called about a job 7 months ago...the other from an AC guy I once used to ask when I am going to service my heating equipment. Never got such desperate calls for business before. Small businesses must be getting crushed.
Posted by: Steve Barry | Oct 13, 2008 12:35:36 PM
How are those short funds doing for you bears? LOL
Up 87% YTD, outperforming the S&P by 121%. Still laughing?
Posted by: Steve Barry | Oct 13, 2008 12:39:19 PM
All the way to the bank.
Gains on double inverse shorts will continue to get crushed.
How many -20% down days do you need to break even?
Posted by: John Borchers | Oct 13, 2008 12:44:54 PM
They do use "inflation adjusted" in the charts
But no mention of the gold standard v. fractional reserves/fiat/derivatives,
the latter has amplified our problem versus
the former or is it the exact opposite?
Posted by: MarkTX | Oct 13, 2008 12:47:04 PM
All the Dow has managed to do so far is get back to where it was last Thursday at 3PM...and the movement today, on a five day scale, is downright tame.
Posted by: Steve Barry | Oct 13, 2008 12:50:36 PM
Gains on double inverse shorts will continue to get crushed.
How many -20% down days do you need to break even?
This day ain't over...and you have to survive earnings this week...check with me Friday. You chirped too soon.
Posted by: Steve Barry | Oct 13, 2008 12:53:49 PM
Thanks for the reply, Steve. Don't know why I thought I'd read you had sold some of your QID. I've been in cash since last year (big thanks to everyone here), and was considering taking a few small bites of the double shorts if they go down enough. We don't seem to be near a bottom here but how long could this rally last is the big question.
By the way, Steve, I'm mostly a lurker -- your calls have been awesome to someone sitting on the sidelines. Cheers.
Posted by: t*sphere*monk | Oct 13, 2008 12:57:17 PM
Steve, bond money hasn't returned to the market yet.
Posted by: John Borchers | Oct 13, 2008 12:57:34 PM
BTW, does anyone else under 55 watch _CBS Sunday Morning_? Fascinating stuff...
.. And watching Ben Stein rail against the fatcats? Priceless.. I hope that video goes online soon...
(the main page for Sunday Morning: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/1998/07/09/sunday/main13562.shtml .. It's listed under "OPINION: Ben Stein on What Went Wrong)
Posted by: Dr. Kenneth Noisewater | Oct 13, 2008 1:03:36 PM
Gains on double inverse shorts will continue to get crushed.
How many -20% down days do you need to break even?
This day ain't over...and you have to survive earnings this week...check with me Friday. You chirped too soon.
Posted by: Steve Barry | Oct 13, 2008 12:53:49 PM
Agree with this, Steve. Seems like the bulls should wait for more than one big up day in a row to begin their chirping. Full disclosure: I have some short ETF's as a hedge but am stil mostly long equities. I, for one, have been too humbled by the markets to chirp this soon about anything.
Posted by: Jeff M. | Oct 13, 2008 1:09:32 PM
Not a whole lot for the bulls to complain about in the action today. EXCEPT for the financials. The XLF is up less than 2.8% (@ 12:48 P.M.).
My take is that this particular rally lasts another day or two. If the Nasdaq can make it to 1800 by Wednesday, I’d be tempted to pick up some QID (just for a trade).
Posted by: D.L. | Oct 13, 2008 1:12:22 PM
I am not in today but I will be following this little John v Steve battle with interest.... today is another classic bear market event.
Tomorrow will be the really interesting day. I would not be surprised to see investors run screaming out of Treasuries. The interesting question will be: where does that money go? John may well have a point, I think that outflow is fuel to the fire.
Barry, I am not surprised to hear you are picking up new business. I have heard some horror stories this weekend, including one about someone whose money was all "in the banks" (as apart from "in the bank"). How far has the XLF fallen this year?? Ouch.
Posted by: leftback | Oct 13, 2008 1:12:55 PM
Steve Barry...
I'm not goading you, I just have a respectful question:
How do you maintain the discipline to hold a dominant trend trading position, ie: like your position in QID, over the time that you have, in the face of such violent volatility?
I tried but got spooked several times, EEV and SDS, and I found myself unable to stick to my guns on days like today when the UltraShorts got their "come-uppance".
Of course, its easy for someone who doesnt have the position on to say they would have closed it into the abyss we saw last week...
But as the dominant trend is still intact, and still decidedly downward... what do you wait for to close? A breach of dominant trend? It would appear that at that point most gains have been eroded.
Thanks,
-I-Man
Posted by: I-Man | Oct 13, 2008 1:21:38 PM
Gold will probably sell off some more as the memory of Armageddon recedes this week and fear levels decrease during this rally. Support levels for spot gold are $800 and even perhaps $750, depending on how the credit markets behave. $800 probably be a good place to get involved as a hedge against the falling $.
Posted by: leftback | Oct 13, 2008 1:26:43 PM
Steve:
I am quite pleased to see that you've made money in this interregnum. John, you see the dow was at 14,000...it is not now. If you have been in double long funds, you are now sleeping under a bridge and dependent on others for internet access.
Why would anyone be jealous of the good fortune of others? Why do people do this?
John????
Posted by: Bruce in Tennessee | Oct 13, 2008 1:50:25 PM
So let's say someone on the sidelines jumped in today to double-long index ETF's which gapped up about 5% at the open. So they are only netting the difference between that 5%x2 plus the closing %x2 - maybe 2% today?
Do you take the 2% or believe is a multi-day bounce, given you believe this is still a bear-market rally? Will it fade tomorrow (like so many times before)?
Posted by: Mind | Oct 13, 2008 2:05:19 PM
