Media Appearance: Power Lunch (10/15/08)
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I will be on Powerlunch from 1:15 to 2pm today, discussing the markets, bailout/rescue plan, Bernake testimony, and all things crisis related:
1. The new Bailout price tag is $2.25 Trillion Dollars
2. Ben Bernanke speech on
why he took this job and WTF did he get himself intoStabilizing the Financial Markets and the Economy;3. Paulson's reversal regarding bank capital injections comes after a long period of underestimating the problem;
4. Regardless, we still have to deal with a nasty recession;
5. Something about the election/debate is likely to come up.
Should be fun . . .
~~~
There were 3 video segments;
The 1st segment, starts at about 3:30.
2nd segment is about markets in general starting at the 1:50.
click for video
3rd segment has a Dennis Kneale mea culpa, and our buy call.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008 | 12:45 PM | Permalink
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Comments
Barry
Ask that group at CNBC how they think the financial markets will respond to a huge downturn in commercial real estate, and an absolute blowup failure in unsecuritized debt obligations like credit cards, car loans, HELOCS, etc.
Let's just call them UDOs.
These problems are a 200 MPH freight train coming down the tracks for us in '09.
Posted by: ToddinFL | Oct 15, 2008 1:04:22 PM
You've been "Octoboxed" my friend. Good for you for calling demand destruction and mentioning the involuntary selling to raise cash.
Posted by: Rob Dawg | Oct 15, 2008 1:32:10 PM
Barry, did I just catch you doing the Brady bunch thing on your octabox appearance? You kept looking around to the people in the boxes around you. Subtle but funny.
Posted by: Uncle T | Oct 15, 2008 1:34:24 PM
I bet you'd rather be on the other channel with Liz...
Did anyone see the Fox ad trashing Cramer? Quite funny.
Posted by: leftback | Oct 15, 2008 1:37:36 PM
sorry i didn't post earlier. you all could have used me as a contrary indicator as i was sure we would have an up day today.
Posted by: karen | Oct 15, 2008 1:39:31 PM
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Posted by: kf | Oct 15, 2008 1:45:47 PM
I'm sorry Barry?
did you say his speech on "Why the hell we do this, and what have we gotten ourselves into."?
Posted by: Eric Davis | Oct 15, 2008 1:46:19 PM
When Ben speaks, Market tanks!!!!!
Posted by: Ben | Oct 15, 2008 1:49:30 PM
wow, Barry bullish...way to man up and take a stand. I hope you are right. Fyi, with your sense of humor, I thought you might like my humorous post about FastMoney changing their name to LessMoney in 2010 at www.irishlightning.com
after you get done with the octobox, check it out....
Posted by: IrishLightning | Oct 15, 2008 1:49:44 PM
Yeah i saw the Cramer ad yesterday was surprised to see it...it was right, just surprised to see it
Posted by: Carlos | Oct 15, 2008 1:54:59 PM
Really sorry Bill Griffith interrupted you to make a joke about leverage when you were about to tell us where you expected the low to be. Then the time was up and we never found out!
Posted by: Becky | Oct 15, 2008 1:57:55 PM
I was going to watch but when the margin call came for my Tivo my plasma big screen was under water and my DIRECTV HELOC had been cancelled so I was forced to try to listen on a crystal radio set - what station was that again?
Posted by: Winston Munn | Oct 15, 2008 2:06:25 PM
Despite posting about Taleb earlier today, Barry's trade still smacks of mean-variance or Gaussian thinking. "Well, the S&P is down 48% so it's time to buy something." That's OK. I concede bear market rallies will happen (and I don't use "sucka's rallies" here given my respect for and gratitude to Barry).
And oh, by the way, it has occurred to me that to anyone who has ever visited a really poor, miserable, third world country, the Great Depression sucked, as far as great depressions go. Twenty percent unemployment? That's nothing for a third world country.
Just remember to buy stocks before November 4 to preserve the official race (Caucasian) and religion (Christianity) of the USA. Yeehah!
~~~
BR: See this: in real time here on Friday
Posted by: CNBC Sucks | Oct 15, 2008 2:09:29 PM
Steve Barry is kicking ass today, wherever he is.
If there is ever a TBP convention, it should feature:
Steve Barry speaking on "Staying Short in a Bear Market",
AT on "Technical Analysis: Wave 5 of 3 is Gonna Crush Ya",
Vermont Trader : "Wait for the Banks to Rally, then Short 'em."
CNBC Sucks on "Melissa Francis v M. Caruso Cabrera - who is dumber?"
and the rest of us : "How I Became a Contrary Indicator 50% of the time".
Posted by: leftback | Oct 15, 2008 2:11:25 PM
Caught a little of you at lunch. Included the part about oil prices. Say, doesn't anyone on that channel understand elementary econ: supply & demand, price elasticity, substitution. Ask any farm boy how those concepts work. He can tell you why oil went from 147 to 75.
Posted by: Ross Thompson | Oct 15, 2008 2:16:42 PM
Brazilian market was halted briefly by circuit breakers. Open again now... we're having some fun, eh?
CNBC also reported that the bourse in Budapest closed around lunch, but that's because traders were Hungary.
Posted by: leftback | Oct 15, 2008 2:25:01 PM
Our bullish call was based on a variety of technical factors, many of which I detailed in real time here on Friday
Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | Oct 15, 2008 2:25:07 PM
The only two voices with any sense of reality in the octagon were you and Santelli. But once again the kool-aid gang monopolized the conversation. Just a few minutes ago Erin announced a new poll at CNBC; do you think the FED should continue to cut the funds rate? They are absolutely clueless.
Posted by: Pat G. | Oct 15, 2008 2:32:34 PM
there is a fun poll at http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/
i encourage everyone to cast their vote!
@leftback, the causality between your humor and the indices is beginning to concern me. maybe you could try not being funny till we close?
Posted by: karen | Oct 15, 2008 2:33:16 PM
Anyone got any special insights into the emerging market melt today? Fall in commodity prices? More hedge fund liquidations? Run over by the D-train™?
There are some tempting stocks in Brazil right now. If and when we see an end to the $ safe haven trade, once the $ turns down then commodity economies will be off to the races again.
Considering that some of these countries do still have growing economies, I would posit the question: when (if at all) do we expect to finally see a hint of "decoupling"? Will some of these markets strengthen even as US and European markets continue to stumble? Anyone subscribe to the "outside-in recovery" theory?
Posted by: leftback | Oct 15, 2008 2:43:07 PM
Amen to that!
EWZ
RIO
PBR
They will recover the fastest once the ship turns around.
Posted by: I-Man | Oct 15, 2008 2:48:06 PM
ME! I subscribe to the outside-in recovery theory. I just didn't have the name for it.
The market is goofball. Maybe forced liquidations today. Who knows. I just look for value and buy when no one wants to buy, preferably ADRs.
Posted by: karen | Oct 15, 2008 2:51:23 PM
Anyone else think that todays session is bullish for the tape if we can close above 950 on SPX?
Hard to say what a "typical" market response would be to an up day like Mondays, but I'd imagine today is fairly benign if you are bullish on the rebound.
I would have expected a low retest at some point, but who knows, it could be tomorrow or next month.
Posted by: I-Man | Oct 15, 2008 3:02:36 PM
HA HA, how many boxes of talking heads can they cram into one screen. I was watching CNBC the other night and I'm pretty sure it was a 8 or 9 box pannel everyone talking at the same time, all of them saying NOTHING!
Posted by: ben | Oct 15, 2008 3:03:14 PM
If CNBC actually broadcast in HD, maybe they could pull the dodecabox?
(cryin' in my beer a little bit, but them's the breaks..)
btw: How many kids with ADD does it take to change a lightbulb?
Let's go ride our bikes!!
Posted by: Dr. Kenneth Noisewater | Oct 15, 2008 3:04:13 PM
