Podcast: Origins of the Housing & Credit Crisis
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I did a podcast with James Reese of Radio Economics
James and I had three prior interviews between September 2005 and February 2007. You can listen to them here or at the iTunes Music Store.
How accurate were these forecasts -- about markets, the economy, housing, lending and credit?
Barry Ritholtz Answers the Four Fundamental Questions about the Crisis (October 3, 2008)
http://odeo.com/episodes/23451056-Barry-Ritholtz-Answers-the-Four-Fundamental-Questions-about-the-Crisis
iTunes Music Store Podcast (free)
http://phobos.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?id=75438319
Radio Economics
http://radioeconomics.com/1/?p=33
Monday, October 06, 2008 | 01:30 PM | Permalink
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Comments
The Treasury Department is now issuing guidelines for money managers who will be buying up the toxic assets from the banks. One of the provisions is that if a money manager takes a kickback from a bank, that will be considered to be unethical behavior. So all you taxpayers out there can just relax.
Posted by: DL | Oct 6, 2008 1:46:18 PM
Don't worry about it. It's water over the dam now. Neel Kashkari will be fixing everything.
Posted by: Chris D. | Oct 6, 2008 1:50:22 PM
@DL: So who exactly will oversee and enforce this provision? The problems aren't always the "provisions" per se, it's enforcing what's on the books.
Posted by: Jeff M. | Oct 6, 2008 1:52:38 PM
Jeff M. @ 1:52:38 PM
“So who exactly will oversee and enforce this provision? The problems aren't always the 'provisions' per se, it's enforcing what's on the books”.
Don’t worry. Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank have given their assurances that they will “oversee” everything.
Posted by: DL | Oct 6, 2008 1:58:46 PM
I know there are offsetting positions on CDS, but can someone please point me to any definitive posts here by BR or anyone as to the potential effectiveness of the bailout against the economy's exposure to such a huge side bet market. Or is it really the $55 Trillion Question? How long before all the CDS contracts expire and everything is settled?
Posted by: CNBC Sucks | Oct 6, 2008 2:04:33 PM
Wow. We just knocked at the 1015 S&P support zone you mentioned this morning. I figured that would take at least a day or two.
Wish I owned some SMN right now.
Posted by: NY Stock Guy | Oct 6, 2008 2:31:44 PM
Reading to set your mind at ease:
Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust - And How You Can Profit from It: How to Build Wealth in Today's Expanding Real EstateMarket: David Lereah
http://www.amazon.com/Real-Estate-Boom-Will-Bust/dp/0385514352/ref=pd_bbs_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1223317582&sr=8-2
Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the ComingRise in the Stock Market: James K. Glassman, Kevin Hassett, Kevin A. Hassett
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Strategy-Profiting/dp/0609806998/ref=pd_sim_b_2
Posted by: VennData | Oct 6, 2008 2:32:22 PM
@VennData: My mistake - Glassman isn't the unofficial advisor to McMaverick. It's Kevin Hassett. I kid you not. It's true.
Posted by: Jeff M. | Oct 6, 2008 2:38:01 PM
What you are seeing today is a logical effect of leverage being equated with liquidity. The test question for today is:
Who has more capital, someone who owns a $50,000 house with no debt or someone who owns a $1,000,000 house with $1,000,001 of debt?
Get it? Leverage leads to loss. Corporate Stock analysis involves debt to equity ratios for a reason.
Posted by: AGG | Oct 6, 2008 2:59:11 PM
i just heard ya on Bloomberg radio! good stuff
Posted by: toddZ | Oct 6, 2008 3:24:35 PM
How many toes did you put in the water Barry, and where did you put them? I did my usual Dogs of the Day strategy for a bounce.
Posted by: leftback | Oct 6, 2008 4:15:03 PM
i bot sso at 36.88 and sold at 40.98. bot gdx at 26.26, and dht at 4.95 but held both. tried for etfc but didn't get filled...
my posts have been blocked so this one might not get thru :(
Posted by: karen | Oct 6, 2008 4:24:38 PM
SpecterofDeflation, are you around? Sorry but we are going to do it again...reflate, inflate, and masterbate all over again...un-frooking real. Your going to have the banks being able to lend again to all those home owners that have equity left, and they are going to go out and buy up all those cheap houses and become landlords of yesteryears flippers. Now how much money do you think that is going to take? Government can I leverage 45 - 1 on my new rentals? Oh! now I'm gonna be Mr. Slum Landlord...might even get me a giirrl on each arm.
Oh dam! I forgot they need jobs to pay the rent...
Posted by: JustinTheSkeptic | Oct 6, 2008 4:31:47 PM
i take that back, bot sso at 36.86, sold at 40.98; maybe i should have held for turnaround tuesday and a potential rate cut but i've got other positions that could benefit in that scenario. further, i've learned not to look a gift horse in the mouth...
never know when the next piece of sky is going to fall... bac just dropped a chunk...
Posted by: karen | Oct 6, 2008 4:35:40 PM
I went with NCC, DIG and UYG. All for trades, although UYG might rumble for a bit longer depending on events. NCC is a stinker but could be a target for one of the big boys.
Heavily loaded with GDX for the reflation event that Justin so eloquently describes above.
Posted by: leftback | Oct 6, 2008 4:38:31 PM
On a serious note I bought AUY and KBX today at the lows...the fundys look too good; not to mention once the world sees what dire circumstances we are in...you'd think the people who produce the stuff that everyone is clammering to get their hands on will increase in value - this is not your average Bear Market Boo-boos.
Posted by: JustinTheSkeptic | Oct 6, 2008 4:39:57 PM
Barry,
GREAT call on the Dow downside target of 9,500...you're the man!!
Posted by: glenn_in_MA | Oct 6, 2008 4:42:31 PM
i'm starting to warm up to bill gross. if the fed follows his advice, gold will be over $1000 in a blink...
Posted by: karen | Oct 6, 2008 4:45:02 PM
Leftback, no one have ever discribed me that way, not even my 7th grade teacher - "eloquently." Ah! I've finally made it.
Wasn't today one interesting market...if I was a smart man I'd go on vacation.
Posted by: JustinTheSkeptic | Oct 6, 2008 4:48:32 PM
Karen, can you imagine growing up with the name "Gross," that has inflation written all over it. LOL
Posted by: JustinTheSkeptic | Oct 6, 2008 4:51:20 PM
Don't worry about it. It's water over the dam now. Neel Kashkari will be fixing everything.
Posted by: Chris D. | Oct 6, 2008 1:50:22 PM
Is it just me, or did this guy get the nod for his name alone?
Neel (Kneel) Kash (Cash) (Hari)kari
as in, with the current 'Rescue Package', those annointed will Kneel for Cash, or have the option to...
http://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/hari-kari
Posted by: Mark E Hoffer | Oct 6, 2008 6:52:58 PM
Housing gets far too much attention as it started the credit crises but the crises had moved far beyond that initial katalysator. I would guess that we are a long way from the bottom as long as housing gets this disproportional amount of attention.
Posted by: AJ | Oct 6, 2008 9:00:14 PM
I can see it in our futures now....from out of California will come:
"Eewwww, that's beyond gross. That's like b-i-l-l gross."
Posted by: Winston Munn | Oct 7, 2008 8:09:30 AM
