Saturday Night Open Thread
Its Saturday evening, and there is all sorts of things to discuss.
What is this coming week going to bring? Another bail out? More market turmoil ? Snapback, or crash?
What's on your minds?
What say ye?
Saturday, October 04, 2008 | 07:36 PM | Permalink
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Comments
surprise fed cut monday morning
50 to 75bps
Posted by: dis | Oct 4, 2008 7:40:24 PM
What's going to happen to Americans retirement?
Posted by: Memboy | Oct 4, 2008 7:43:24 PM
Barry,
The Guardian has a really interesting article on the possibility that many banks may opt to not pursue bailouts due to the many extra conditions that makes them less attractive.
It'd be great to hear your thoughts on this
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/05/wall.street.bailout
Posted by: Denis | Oct 4, 2008 7:44:40 PM
Rate cuts are forthcoming. They're going all in.
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 4, 2008 7:45:28 PM
Where do we go from here?
Have you considered the fact that you are likely to be wrong at the bottom? Scoreboard is dollars, that you CC' d with a pronounced bear is notable. You have nailed it, but is Buffet right or are you?
Roubini has been the shit, dead on. He was way early. He will be late and irrelevant on the way up.
I am amused that I take issue with your pats on the back, as I am significantly more bearish. But I judge my sentiment accordingly, do you?
Big soapbox, step up and have a Paulson moment.
John that is, if you did not get the hint.
Posted by: dave | Oct 4, 2008 7:47:25 PM
Kass is talking about an imminent rate cut. How long would a bounce from a coordinated global rate cut last? Contrary to what Cramer claims, it wouldn't be a "panacea", but I think such a rally would have some legs right now. We're pretty straight down right now. Could see a solid week at least off of something like that (of course, there would be selling pressures along the way).
Posted by: Eric | Oct 4, 2008 7:47:46 PM
If Bernanke doesn't pull out a rate cut Sunday before Asia opens - potential crash Monday.
The markets lost around 9% each last week. If a Crash is going to happen - it is probably going to happen this week or next.
Posted by: Maj Tom | Oct 4, 2008 7:48:09 PM
The most disturbing news today was that AIG has already used $61 billion of the $85 billion bridge loan and haven't yet sold any assets. And we think $700 billion will save the entire financial industry? After AIG, what are the biggest underwriters of credit default swaps?
Posted by: BigPicFan333 | Oct 4, 2008 7:49:17 PM
Tonight America's Most Wanted features the hunt for Hank "the mole" Paulson, capo di tutti capi of the Wall Street crime families. This brazen con-man is believed to be planning the largest bank robbery in U.S. history...the $700 billion looting of the U.S. Treasury under the cover of TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program). Paulson is known to frequent the Washington, D.C. metro area, and has been spotted visiting Barney Frank at odd hours. Paulson could also be hiding in the New York metro area where his mob associates have a network of plush hide-a-ways, including the Club Fed bordello on Maiden Lane in lower Manhattan. This week-end he may try to slip into Paris to show European Central Banksters how to blackmail legislators into giving their bankster buddies hundreds of billions of dollars or euros.
As Hank clawed his way to become boss of the Goldman Sachs crew in 1999, he got a rep as a brut, and many nicknames, such as the "Steamroller","the Iceman", and "cold scungilli". From 1999 to 2006 Hank as boss of the Goldman Sachs was overseer of the subprime CDO fraud and Ponzi schemes to fleece investors and pension funds. In 2004 Paulson's mob and the 4 other investment bank mobs led the charge and got the SEC to change the net capital rule, allowing these mobs to recklessly increase leverage to more than 30 to 1.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/business/03sec.html?_r=2&hp=&pagewanted=all
Paulson greatest coup, and the thing that made him "boss of all bosses" was his July 2006 appointment as U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. Why lobby (a.k.a. bribe) government officials when you can become a government official yourself. And not just any government official...the freaking U.S. SECRETARY OF TREASURY. In July 2006 the Wall Street crime families paid respects by kissing Hank on both cheeks, kissing his ring, licking his shoes, and promising his share of "our thing" would be waiting when Hank leaves the Treasury office.
Police hope that recent mob warfare may cause a break in mob ranks and lead to Paulson's capture. Mobsters suspect that Paulson directed the take-down of the Bear Stearns and Lehman mobs to protect and enlarge Goldman Sachs territory. Police are hoping that a disgruntled mobster will step forward and bring this serial con-man Paulson to justice.
Posted by: tom a taxpayer | Oct 4, 2008 7:50:43 PM
Barry, would you care to speculate on what percentage of selling last week was due to hedge funds raising cash for redemptions? Also, how many more bailouts will it take from here, in order to drastically tighten the TED spread?...Bular...Bular...anyone?
Posted by: Ghawier Downing | Oct 4, 2008 7:51:03 PM
No coordinated EU banking response. Hard to see the Fed using up another bullet on Monday though a cut before the October meeting is surely possible. Earnings...can they possibly be spun in some way that brings hope? I don't see it.
And my big picture question is about the "fact" that markets are forward-looking mechanisms. I just find that to be utter gibberish, at least in terms of accuracy. Yes, they look forward in terms of "tomorrow is another day" but I am baffled as to the evidence of predictive power.
But then I also think Sarah Palin is a vacuous git, so what do I know.
Posted by: The Original DC | Oct 4, 2008 7:51:15 PM
> What's on your minds?
I saw this article a couple of days ago, and it was an eye opener. I am wondering just what is behind it.
Posted by: Bob | Oct 4, 2008 7:52:00 PM
Verizon shuts down access to Usenet
15 June 2008 16:11 by Andre "DVDBack23" Yoskowitz | 43 comments
Verizon has announced that they will be stopping access to tens of thousands of Usenet discussion areas including the very popular alt.* groups that have been around since the late 1980s.
Verizon spokesman Eric Rabe said only a select few newsgroups/discussion groups would be offered to customers going into the future. It appears the decision is in response to political "strong-arming" from New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo who wants strong restrictions on all newsgroups.
Cuomo added that his office had found child porn on at least 88 newsgroups, although that percentage is tiny compared to the over 90,000 newsgroups that exist. "We are attacking this problem by working with Internet service providers...I commend the companies that have stepped up today to embrace a new standard of responsibility, which should serve as a model for the entire industry," read a press statement from Cuomo's office.
Newsgroups are a pre-Web technology that has relied on ISPs and Universities to operate servers in which users can exchange messages and files.
With the decision however, comes the shut down of many useful newsgroups such as symantec.customerservice.general, us.military, microsoft.public.excel, and fr.soc.economie. which have longed helped users.
One user of the alt.hierarchy was very upset over the decision. "This is ridiculous. I actually met my wife on alt.personals, 14 years ago... I still use usenet - there are a lot good discussions and a person can get answers to questions on specific topics pretty quickly. It's nice to have a decentralized place to hold discussions, one that is not beholden to a sysadmin to correctly run a forum, one that's free of blinking gifs and flash ads."
http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/14493.cfm
Posted by: Mark E Hoffer | Oct 4, 2008 7:58:21 PM
I think I'm just gonna grab a sixpack, shoot up some meth, put on some porn, and imagine what a paridise it's gonna be with
that hot chick as president.
Posted by: Bob A | Oct 4, 2008 7:59:09 PM
if the market is a leading indicator, the Dow Transports suggest quicker pain than most realize...rate cuts soon...and no matter how right or wrong Paulson is about what he's attempting, a blank check for that much money with few firm guidelines mixed with increasing social acrimony is a recipe for bitter politics in the year ahead. And if Nouriel is correct about all the bad banks needing to be cut now, then I fear the Economist article a few months ago was remarkably prescient...in a very bearish way
http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=11579107
There's always football tomorrow.
Posted by: DaveM | Oct 4, 2008 8:03:51 PM
She should have run for president Bob. Would have been a shoe in.
Posted by: John Borchers | Oct 4, 2008 8:06:03 PM
"But then I also think Sarah Palin is a vacuous git, so what do I know."
Say it ain't so, Joe.
Posted by: Winston Munn | Oct 4, 2008 8:06:19 PM
I'm really interested in where exactly the next stages of growth for the world economy are going to be.
Warren Buffet is correct the American Economy is a superior athlete in the throes of a heart attack, but nothing unsurmountable.
As we deal with and overcome this crisis of confidence, what are the ways in which we will grow out of this?
An additional thought on my mind is why the low volume sell offs as of late?
Posted by: robsix6 | Oct 4, 2008 8:08:03 PM
Wachovia says: "Pandit--you bandit, you can go to Hell.. We're hitchin our wagon to the horses at Wells..
Posted by: Bad Bank Poet | Oct 4, 2008 8:09:23 PM
Who will be hired and work with Paulson to buy up assests and benefit at the expense of taxpayers. Former employees of the failed investment banks? It won't turn out well.
Posted by: Bob | Oct 4, 2008 8:09:24 PM
All this stuff about what a law says or what an act says means nothing. It's the interpretation and subsequent enforcement of said acts. I can tell you from sad experience that an Act can be re-interpreted at will and a Federal goon can come in the office and fine you and threaten you with bankruptcy. Sample: the CFTC is charged with enforcement of all laws and acts concerning the futures markets.....but guess what they did? Why the assigned an industry group called the National Futures Association all discipline and enforcement unless criminal activity that is to serious to let slide is involved. It gets better, the big shots in the NFA are the biggest clearing firms, brokerages, and exchanges.....so guess what happens. I have a hunch that all the illegal trading is a result of this NFA. The CFTC stands aside and claims they are enforcing the law when in fact they do nothing.
Posted by: Howard | Oct 4, 2008 8:15:32 PM
They havent changed anything,the SPX is still hitting all support and resistance levels,just faster.
Posted by: Paul Boughton | Oct 4, 2008 8:17:49 PM
Large, coordinated, global interest rate cuts before the market opens on Monday. Yes, this includes the ECB that is suddenly awakening to the possibility that their policy may lead to the break up of the EU.
Posted by: Myr | Oct 4, 2008 8:19:44 PM
While DemoKrats and Repubs are stepping over each other's small phaluses and giving and getting blame for the mess we are in. The real culprits, the Federal Reserve boys, are in a drunken stupor and confused in wonder as to why no one is yet pointing the finger at them... This is, folks, The Grat Greenspan Depression of the Millenium.
Read at http://www.floridabits.com/2008/04/great-greenspan-depression-of.html
Posted by: Florida Blog | Oct 4, 2008 8:20:35 PM
All the conditions are in for a major low for the next 6 months. Im bearish longterm, but I think everyone is underestimating the government right now.
Ive been a SUPER BEAR and I think some good news is going to pop up soon.
Posted by: shrek | Oct 4, 2008 8:24:47 PM
