Stopped Out
I came back to the office from a noon meeting to see all of yesterday's "Toe-in-the-Water" Cramer trades had been stopped out for modest (small) losses.
After opening up 150 or so, we reversed hard and headed south -- a 500 point Dow swing -- and closed on the lows (never a good sign).
We now have a Dow 9,000 down side target.
Its a tough, but target-rich, environment
Tuesday, October 07, 2008 | 04:30 PM | Permalink
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Yup I agree.Thought of buying some at close but held back.Too many bottom fishers and in this environment the surprise would be more to the downside than upside.Mostly in cash for now, unless we get an apocalypse wednesday.
Posted by: jagmohan Swain | Oct 7, 2008 4:44:30 PM
Hate it when Cramer is right, at least short term.
Best regards,
RF
Posted by: RF | Oct 7, 2008 4:44:50 PM
Dow 9000? You must be a Kudlow convert. I would guess Dow 8000. There's little reason to think of this event as being any different from 2003. A new market will emerge from this one, and the final form is not completely clear.
Posted by: dead hobo | Oct 7, 2008 4:44:59 PM
I bought some shares of GE for the IRA this morning just so I can say I bought at a PE of 10.
I'm probably early. LOL
I've been long SDS, TWM, EEV for weeks after getting out of SKF early and kicking myself repeatedly.
Bring it on I say.
Posted by: Chris | Oct 7, 2008 4:45:14 PM
Damn, keep forgetting the leasons learned in the .com crash. NEVER try to catch a falling knife!!!
I sold out all my short postions on the HOPE of a coordinated rate cut. Instead I get Bernake telling everyone how BAD it is out there. Just what we need. that guy is turning out to be as inept as Greenspan was.
Face it, America (along with the rest of the industrialized world) is F*cked!
Posted by: jdamon | Oct 7, 2008 4:46:19 PM
BR - Your 975 S&P target could end up a bug on the windshield!
Posted by: catman | Oct 7, 2008 4:48:40 PM
Still hating myself for saying I should buy SFK two days ago at 96. Look for DJ <9000 by friday. DJ <5300 by end of the year.
Holding PUTS on C,BAC,BK,FED,FITB,JCP,SHLD,KEY,RF,SOV,WFC
Call on
GLD FCK
Sold in the last 10 mintues of trading
DXD for net profit 100% and C at 15 for oct 15 at 70% profit. Hating that cause Aloca just missed big time, look for more falling knives tomorrow.
Posted by: Robert | Oct 7, 2008 4:53:27 PM
Not nimble enough but still exited with some profit. That sidelines me until a real bottom forms.
Posted by: Winston Munn | Oct 7, 2008 4:54:04 PM
Today felt like one of those days in 2000-2002
where everyone is looking for the lift/end of day moonshot rally and it never came.
You can lose a lot of money playing that game
and/or the interest rate cut is going to save us game.
No positions, and trying hard to just sit on my hands.
Posted by: MarkTX | Oct 7, 2008 4:56:25 PM
Well... sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar eats you. Right now I am super confused about it. The market was somewhat logical up until last Friday.
Posted by: huxrules | Oct 7, 2008 4:57:02 PM
BR, more like "camel toe in the water". What, you set your stops at the bid? C'mon, grow a pair!
Posted by: Cramer Is A Scumbag | Oct 7, 2008 4:57:18 PM
A few years ago I heard Burton Malkiel tell Bob Brinker that one of his grad students wrote a paper on fading Cramer. I believe he said to wait 5 to 7 days and then fade Cramer's buy recommendation. Let then minions move the market.
Probably applies to individual stocks more than the whole market, but it is interesting watching this.
Posted by: frankinomaha | Oct 7, 2008 4:59:30 PM
Cramer is always right guys....
its easy when you like both jay and jane
Posted by: zo | Oct 7, 2008 5:02:42 PM
Stood pat today. QID, SRS and SKF did quite nicely for me but everything else sank, including GDX, AAPL, GOOG, ACI, XTO. Ended slightly down for the day. I'll take it!
Posted by: Jeff M. | Oct 7, 2008 5:04:38 PM
....and MCD. Tempted to buy some more of that but will probably wait a while.
Posted by: Jeff M. | Oct 7, 2008 5:06:06 PM
I'm surprised noone seems to have made much of Mr. Paulson putting a 35 year old former aerospace dweeb who went out and got himself an MBA in charge of the bailout. Apart from Neel Kashkari being too young to have actually attempted to work through a real recession the guy looks psycho. No wonder no one, particularly not the market, believes the bailout will work.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/06/news/economy/treasury_hiring_guidelines/index.htm
Posted by: NiNM | Oct 7, 2008 5:07:33 PM
@NiNM: I personally would expect nothing less (more) at this point from Paulson and the Feds.
I also think many of us are just so shell-shocked by what's going on to be surprised by anything anymore.
Posted by: Jeff M. | Oct 7, 2008 5:12:39 PM
Still 100% QID...up another 10% today.
I did not look at a screen all day...heard Dow dropped 500...got home and expected to see VIX at 65...it is only 54...expected 10 day MA on put/call to be 1.25...it is only 1.16...expected massive QQQQ volume...volume was less than yesterday.
Conclusion...closer to a bottom, but NOT THERE...I see S&P going to 850 (and I predicted something close to that on this blog on 1/2/08 BTW)...and QID at that point will be 100. I think I will then distribute my shares.
Posted by: Steve Barry | Oct 7, 2008 5:14:52 PM
Sold 2/3 or so of my QID, all of TWM, and 1/2 of EFU. My 'insanely high prices' set for FXP, SRS, and SKF haven't triggered for sells yet. I figure we're near an interim term (i.e. few days or weeks) bottom, so I wanted to take down some short exposure (I'm all short ETFs and cash, with my only longs being GLD and FXF). I certainly don't think we are anywhere near THE bottom.
At THAT point of capitulation, I think the CNBC guys and gals will just be sitting in awe of the falling ticker, occasionally muttering an obscenity or two. Maybe Art Cashin will wear a "Dow 8000" or "Dow 500" hat from back in the day.
The only trade I'm even entertaining is long DIG at ~$40 and holding until stop-loss, or until it hits $65-$70. Other than that, I'm not sure about dipping the toes into the long end of the pool. I think the sharks might bite my toes off.
HCF
Posted by: HCF | Oct 7, 2008 5:19:31 PM
Well,
I think that what we have here is a failure to understand "The Big Picture". In my humble opinion we are witnessing the failure of a philosophy. You have to think big "Macro" to understand this market. My best guess is that we will fall slightly above, at, or below what the normal trend line should have been with running the "old" philosophy. I will put a target of somewhere between 3500 to 6000 on the DOW. I could be wrong... However, I'm a mere student of history, finance, and economics and could be wrong. Interventions may or may not have an affect be it positive or negative. The world might just be always as it was and not how it is perceived......
Econ 101
Posted by: Economics 101 | Oct 7, 2008 5:19:52 PM
>Steve Barry
got home...??????
I thought you were still bunkered in
(watching your cable/satellite feed of course) ;)
Posted by: MarkTX | Oct 7, 2008 5:21:06 PM
It is interesting to ponder whether the market would be acting differently if someone well-respected, well-known, and with plenty of gray hair earned from decades of working in the market was actually (and very publicly) in charge.
Even if Paulson's goal is the opposite -- ie being hell-bent on this thing blowing up ASAP -- I think he could have found a more entertaining bad choice in Cramer or John Meriwether or Charles Keating.
Posted by: NiNM | Oct 7, 2008 5:24:08 PM
neil f:
psycho? too young? i suspect the guy has plenty of skill and talent and maybe won't have a heart attack.
perhaps some old fogey banker/conspirator who looks like Greenspan or Fuld would be better and inspire some confidence?
Posted by: kingtone | Oct 7, 2008 5:25:46 PM
Mark,
With QID suffering this summer, I had to get a job and leave the bunker...now I have the down payment to afford a bunker twice the size, but I need a mortgage. Maybe I'll get a pay-option ARM.
Posted by: Steve Barry | Oct 7, 2008 5:26:46 PM
excuse me, i meant jeff m. not neil f.
(referring to the treasury bailout selection post)
Posted by: kingtone | Oct 7, 2008 5:29:59 PM
