The Big Picture

« Campaign Finance Map: Monies Raised by Candidates | Main | Regulation after Bush »

Has the Market Fully Discounted the Bush Presidency ?

Tuesday, November 04, 2008 | 11:30 AM

in Commodities | Energy | Fixed Income/Interest Rates | Inflation | Politics

What is it that the market is pricing in?

While partisans try to blame the crash on one or the other candidates, here's something I have yet to hear any of the TV pundits discuss: The George W. Bush presidency.

While partisans try to blame the crash on one or the other candidates, here's something I have yet to hear any of the TV pundits discuss: Blaming it on the presidency of George W. Bush.

Currency Markets are the world's vote on US monetary policies

via TradingCharts.com

S&P500 2001-08, weekly

Equities: Which Sell off do you hold the occupant of the White House Responsible for: The One that began prior to his arrival, or the one that began prior to his departure?

Chart courtesy of Fusion IQ, Bloomberg

I do not believe that the 2000-03 crash was a result the markets pricing in a Bush Presidency. However, one could certainly make the case that the past few years market action has been the result of his fiscal, tax, and spending policies.

Oil Prices Respond to Energy and Military Policies

Two oil men in the White House, two wars, no conservation efforts, and no attempts to develop alternatives to Crude Oil:

via TradingCharts.com

>

Gold, 2001-08 weekly

The Gold market is a store of value in uncertain times -- what is it saying about the Bush policies?

Chart courtesy of Fusion IQ, Bloomberg

>

Bonds: 10 Year Treasury, 1980-2008

Chart courtesy of Fusion IQ, Bloomberg

>

Longstanding downward trend in rates was in effect since the Volcker Fed broke inflation in 1980 -- recent Presidents (W, Clinton, Reagan) have all benefited from this trend

What are the markets really pricing in ? Might it be the W. presidency?

Permalink and comments here

Previously:
Pricing in a Bush Presidency (July 08, 2008)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/pricing-in-a-bush-presidency/