Discussing Unemployment Rate and Job Loss on NPR
I am off to NPR to talk about how the various measures of employment -- Birth Death adjustment, Unemployment rates, total Employment -- have changed over the years.
This has been a pet peeve of mine for years.
A few charts and data sources follow . . .
Birth Death Adjustment
via Jake at Econompic
U1- U7 (1995)
25 Most Influential Real Estate Bloggers: 2008
Inman Realty puts outs a list of 25 Most Influential Real Estate Bloggers each year.
The Big Picture is pleased to be on it!
Here's Inman's description:
There is a busy field of bloggers in the real estate industry, and some clear standouts that have built a loyal following. This annual list of most influential real estate bloggers recognizes those bloggers who are well-known, well-read and have a knack for stirring up discussion and debate on important, timely and relevant topics for the industry. In addition to this list of 25 bloggers, we provide a handful of notables who are also stirring up the blogosphere.
In this report we are also highlighting 10 blogs that focus on the economy and financial markets — real estate professionals are undoubtedly keeping a closer eye on economic news these days as the global financial crises leaves its mark on the housing market. And we offer up a list of 10 international real estate blogs, proving that the blogosphere is truly planetary and that the passion for all things real estate is not just a U.S. phenomenon.
25 Most Influential Bloggers: 2008
Friday, October 31, 2008
Financial Sense Online Interview
I keep getting reader requests for more podcasts. As long as others want to listen to my nasal drone, I'm game . . .
SPX Earnings & Multiples ?
There's an interesting article in today's WSJ in which (coincidentally), I have a brief quote in:
"The financial system is undergoing a sea change that is forcing a global sell-down of assets. Even when this is complete, there is likely to be greater restraint when it comes to the use of borrowed money to juice returns. At the same time, investors are likely to demand a far higher price to take on risk than in the past. Even if financial stocks feel the brunt of these changes, few, if any, industries will be unaffected.
That argues for prices that reflect reduced expectations of future profits. Yet consensus estimates peg 2009 aggregate operating earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index at about $94 a share, according to Thomson Reuters. That figure assumes earnings growth both this year and next.
If those estimates panned out, the S&P on Friday would have traded at what looks like a bargain multiple of about 9.3 times forward earnings. Shift earnings to the lower end of the consensus range, about $75 a share, and the multiple rises to 11.7 times.
That still might seem cheap compared with multiples that often exceeded 20 times during the 1990s. But it is well above trough valuations of about eight times seen during the depths of the 1970s bear market, according to data from UBS. And the economic outlook, along with the unwinding of the credit bubble, means it is unlikely that earnings will increase this year or next. The better question is how far they will fall.
Bears are well below the consensus in their answer. Barry Ritholtz, director of research at Fusion IQ, for example, says he reckons that 2009 earnings could drop to about $50 a share. In that case, even a multiple of 14 times would bring the S&P to about 750 -- nearly 15% below current levels."
Good stuff . . .
Autumn Is Here. Now for the Fall...
WSJ, OCTOBER 25, 2008
Me Media: Culprits of the Collapse
Anderson Cooper 360 is doing this ongoing series -- "Culprits of the collapse" -- and tonight, I weigh in on Jimmy Cayne of Bear Stearns. (we shot a lot of footage, but it will probably just be a minute or two).
You can see some of the prior culprits (Greenspan, Mozilo, Phil Gramm, Beazer Homes, Cox,etc.) here
Media Appearance: Power Lunch (10/15/08)
I will be on Powerlunch from 1:15 to 2pm today, discussing the markets, bailout/rescue plan, Bernake testimony, and all things crisis related:
1. The new Bailout price tag is $2.25 Trillion Dollars
2. Ben Bernanke speech on
why he took this job and WTF did he get himself intoStabilizing the Financial Markets and the Economy;
3. Paulson's reversal regarding bank capital injections comes after a long period of underestimating the problem;
4. Regardless, we still have to deal with a nasty recession;
5. Something about the election/debate is likely to come up.
Should be fun . . .
There were 3 video segments;
The 1st segment, starts at about 3:30.
2nd segment is about markets in general starting at the 1:50.
click for video
3rd segment has a Dennis Kneale mea culpa, and our buy call.
SmartMoney's Power 30: Investment Bloggers
Congrats to my boyee Paul Kedrosky of Infectious Greed and AOL's Blogging Stocks who were named by SmartMoney as part of the "Power 30" -- specifically cited in a slot reserved just for Investment Bloggers:
"Wall Street has always functioned like a giant chat room—the Internet just made it official, says Paul Kedrosky, 42, who writes the blog Infectious Greed. He and other bloggers make their voices heard with sharp analysis that’s sometimes missing from the rest of the media. Plus, they get to curse and go on tangents. “If I had to do nonfarm payrolls, blah, blah, blah, my head would explode,” says Barry Ritholtz, 47, of the blog The Big Picture.
Kedrosky says traffic on his blog has nearly doubled in the past year, to 210,000 unique visitors a month. And BloggingStocks, one of the most popular financial blogs, has seen traffic grow 36 percent since last year. As the credit crisis continues to pound the economy, they’ll have plenty of fodder in the months to come."
Curse? Go on tangents? WTF is that about?
The full magazine is out later this month . . .
SmartMoney's Power 30
October 14, 2008
Media Appearance: Power Lunch (10/03/08)
I will be on Powerlunch from 1 to 2, discussing the bailout/rescue plan, recent mergers, and all things finacial crisis related.
1. It looks as if this plan will squeak through the house, thanks to the sweeteners -- and a healthy dollop of fear;
2. The thinking seems to be that a poorly thought out plan is better than no plan at all;
3. M&A activity is a function of certain financials being down 90% -- not an improvement in credit or the economy. The Wells Fargo buy of Wachovia is still a fire sale, albeit at better prices than the Citibank;
4. The raising of FDIC to $250k is a good start; I think we may have to go unlimited gurantees for 6 months, and start closing down the bad banks, recapitalize the good ones.
5. I have yet to see anything that convinces me that eliminating Mark-to-Market is a good idea;
Should be fun . . .
UPDATE: October 3, 2008 2:15pm
Well, that was weird -- I got into a shouting match Charlie Gasparino over CRA, FRE, FNM.
I'd love to debate him on Air, (if they have the nerve)
Media Appearance: CNBC's Fast Money (9/25/08)
Last night on Fast Money, there was a heated debate on who was to blame for the Housing boom and bust, and the credit crisis, and the current economic malaise (see this and this from last night's show).
Tonite I will be on Fast Money with Dylan Ratigan debating the crew on this. I name names, assess blame, and point fingers. All the problems seem to be one after another in a series of unintended consequences.
We will go over the facts about the cause and who is the blame:
• Federal Reserve (FOMC)
• Mortgage brokers
• Federal Government
• Fannie Mae
• Lending banks
• Wall Street firms
• CDO Managers
• Credit agencies (Rating Agencies)
• Hedge funds
• Institutional Investors (pensions, insurance firms, banks, etc.)
• And back to regulatory role of the Federal Reserve
For a longer perspective, please see these previously published commentaries:
First Consumers, now Structured Financing: The Ongoing Impact of the Housing Sector (and who is to blame?)
Investor Insight, August 24, 2007
Real Estate and the Post-Crash Economy
FrontlineThoughts, December 29, 2006
UPDATE Here is the Video:
We start about a minute in . . .
NPR: SEC Bans Short-Selling Stocks
I did a nice interview with NPR on short selling earlier today, which should be live at 3pm.