The Big Picture

Media Appearance: CNN Money (04/29/08)

Tuesday, April 29, 2008 | 05:48 PM

I am on CNN Money - Glenn Beck's show tonite, discussing Inflation Ex-Inflation, and the dubious way the government creates CPI.

I should be on the half hour at 7:30, 9:30, and 12:30.

UPDATE: April 29, 2008 8:30pm

That was pretty cool -- I got to discuss how misleading the CPI data is, show charts of the various CPI-lowering adjustments, and speak uninterrupted.

Beck definitely gets that the whole system is full of crap thing.

You folks in comments should watch to see if you think the appearance was worth it. (I'll post it as soon as CNN makes the video available)

New Column at Real Money (04/22/08)

Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | 09:41 AM

in Media | Real Estate

My latest Real Money column is up, looking at what to expect from the latest home sales data: Existing Home Sales Will Rise: Be Cautious With Builders.

It builds on some of the prior work we have done on the Seasonality of home sales.

Here's an excerpt:

"Not surprisingly, it turns out January is the slowest month of the year when it comes to home sales. That intuitively makes sense, as most people are otherwise engaged in December - they are busy with Holidays and vacations. Many fewer people are shopping for homes then, so we get fewer contracts signed in January.

Once we get past January, the lowest sales month of the year, its pretty much all good for existing home sales through June. A pull back in July, a bounce back up in August, and that's the best first part of the year.

Why? Well, consider how many families want to minimize the disruption to their kid's education during a move. It seems most families with school-age children want to be in their new homes before the new school year starts in September. This makes sense in terms of both the overall pattern of sales, and the flurry of closings in August. The big fall off in September reflects the start of the school year; With so few buyers looking in December, its no surprise that January is the weakest month for sales."

Its on the subscription only site, but I will try to get it moved to the free TheStreet.com section tomorrow . . .

Source:
Existing Home Sales Will Rise: Be Cautious With Builders
RealMoney.com, 4/22/2008 9:09 AM EDT
http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/homebuilders/10413083.html

Today's CNBC Appearance

Tuesday, April 15, 2008 | 05:30 PM

in Media

Here's today's CNBC spot, live and up close. (You can catch me trying to live blog a few times during the show, looking down at the monitor)

Click the links (not the picture)

Inflation & the Markets

Insight on what the PPI numbers mean for the economy and markets, with Barry Ritholtz, Fusion IQ; Edward Zore, Northwestern Mutual and CNBC's Steve Liesman

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=712893319

Regulating Hedge Funds

Discussing both sides of the issue, with Richard Blumenthal, Connecticut Attorney General; Harvey Pitt Former SEC Chairman Kalorama Partners, CEO & Founder and CNBC's Melissa Francis

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=712909180

Investing in Railroad Stocks

How to make money in transports, with Jason Seidl, Credit Suisse First Boston and Lee Klaskow, Longbow Research

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=712908150

Cure for Airline Ailments?

Debating whether low fares kill the airline industry, with Vaughn Cordle, Airline Forecasts; Jerry Chandler cheapflights.com and CNBC's Melissa Francis

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=71290223

Live Blogging CNBC

Tuesday, April 15, 2008 | 11:16 AM

in Media

Let's see if I can do this --WHILE I'M LIVE ON THE AIR.

WHEW! That was difficult! I won't be trying that again!

11:41 am: Intel (INTC) has a FusionIQ rating of 35 -- out of 100 !

11:38 am: Wow I agree with Harvey Pitt --thats a first ! I don't think Hedge funds should escape regulation, but their investors need to be treated differently than stock investors...

11:33 am: Oilmidge under $114 -- the lovely Melissa Lee is sittingnext to me discussing Paulson's committee, and hard to value assest.

11:32am: Wow this is hard to do !

11:30am: 100 point swing in the Dow as all 3 indices slip into the red.

11:27am: Come and knock on my door: Dylan Trish & Melissa

11:24am: Trannies & Rails -- proof not of a strong economy, but of Ag, Coal and commodities.

11:22am: I wanted to add that Airlines have had a "good" problem of increased demand over the past 30 years as more and more non-business clients became regular fliers. Most businesses welcome a secular increase in demand -- it has been a problems for the Airlines.

Media Appearance: CNBC's Morning Call (4/15/08)

Tuesday, April 15, 2008 | 10:30 AM

in Media

This morning, I'll be doing the guest hosting thing on CNBC's Morning Call, from 11:00am til Noon.

Today's topics:

Inflation: PPI, CPI, Energy & Ag

Earnings: S&P analyst consensus priced too high

Recession: Short and shallow, or deep and prolonged

As we discussed earlier today and this week, retail sales are up due to food and energy, and PPI is up across the boards.

More later . . .

Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (4/01/08)

Tuesday, April 01, 2008 | 05:30 PM

in Media

Another appearance on Kudlow & Co. tonite, from 7:00 to 7:40pm.

Also on the show tonight are Vince Farrell of Scotsman Capital, and Dave Sowerby of Loomis, and Michael Pento of Global Advisors. Dropping in will be Dick Bove, who has had a number of excellent calls on the Financial sector. He is bullish on the big banks, but bearish on brokers.

Topics for discussion:

- Today's big bear market rally;

- The "bottom" in real estate and financials;

- The ongoing trashing of the Paulson plan

UPDATE: April 1, 2008 9:01pm

Click thru for video

Part II

Part III

Barron's "Truthiness" Instead of Truth

Monday, March 31, 2008 | 02:30 PM

in Media

Barron's used our Truthiness post from last week for their Market Watch section:

"Truthiness" Instead of Truth
Big Picture by Fusion IQ

March 24: Whether overstating job creation [or growth, or] understating inflation, a shocking amount of debate about the economic expansion has been primarily spin....[as] a parade of sycophants, despite knowing better, continued to cheer-lead punk data....First, they denied what was happening; then we got the whole "contained" thingie; then they blamed da Bears. Now they've unwittingly embraced Marx, and successfully pled for the central planners to rescue them from their own stupidity...Has "truthiness" replaced truth? [Will we] be saddled forever with these hallucinatory hacks?

Source:
MARKET WATCH: A Sampling of Advisory Opinion
Edited by ANITA PELTONEN
Barron's MONDAY, MARCH 31, 2008
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120674492840373083.html

Financials Seize Spotlight from Tech

Thursday, March 27, 2008 | 05:28 PM

in Media

Yahoo Tech Ticker

Kudlow Appearance (3/26/08)

Wednesday, March 26, 2008 | 09:42 PM

in Media

Here are tonite's appearance:

I sure wish CNBC would get hip to embeddable flash media, like BrightCove. The klunky old windows media players crash all the time. (I don't understand why they went with this 10 year old technology).

Stocks for the Long Run

click for klunky old windows media player:

>
Transports and Agricultural Commodities, Coal and Energy

click for klunky old windows media player:

Larry's Big Intro, and Prof Jeremy Siegel

Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (3/26/08)

Wednesday, March 26, 2008 | 05:30 PM

in Media

Another appearance on Kudlow & Co. tonite, from 7ish to 7:30pm (ish).

Also on the show tonight are Jim Awad, chairman of WP Stewart Asset Management, Jeremy Siegel, Wharton finance professor & author of "Stocks for the Long Run", and Stefan Abrams, Bryden-Abrams Investment Management managing partner.

Topics for discussion:

- Disappointing Existing and New Home Sales, and Durable Goods;

- Oil's run to ~$106, up $4.77 today;

- Oracle's top line revenue miss;

If you haven't seen the front page WSJ article, that is scheduled to come up for discussion. Stocks Tarnished By 'Lost Decade' -- U.S. Shares in Longest Funk Since 1970s.

Here's the WSJ graphic:

See the 100 year chart I posted a few years ago about this exact subject:

click for larger version

Bloomberg Appearance (3/20/08)

Saturday, March 22, 2008 | 04:43 PM

in Media

I grabbed this off of the Bloomberg site: Its Thursday's quick hit.

click for video

Esquire Interview on Bear Stearns

Thursday, March 20, 2008 | 02:15 PM

in Media

So George Clooney and I are having a few beers, and we start talking Wall Street, Bear Stearns and all the rest . . . The next thing I know, I'm faced, he whips out a tape recorder, and being pretty soused, I just go off for 45 minutes. You can read most of it in this month's mag right online.

Good stuff (be forewarned of the R-rated language). Clooney always gets me saying stuff that's a bit embarrassing.

Oh, well, such is life. What's a few F-bombs between friends?

Source:
Don't Fear the Bear
Barry Ritholtz
Esquire, March 20, 2008, 7:45 AM
http://www.esquire.com/the-side/opinion/dont-fear-bear-stearns

Off to Bloomberg TV

Thursday, March 20, 2008 | 09:00 AM

in Commodities | Media

I will be out of pocket for awhile this morning, as I am off to Bloomberg for a quick tv hit at 9:40.

Meanwhile, have a look at these charts, via today's NYT:

Can the Federal Reserve cause commodity inflation?

Source:
Commodities: Latest Boom, Plentiful Risk
DIANA B. HENRIQUES
NYT, March 20, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/20/business/20commodity.html

March 17, 2008 Kudlow & Co: Economic Realist Version

Tuesday, March 18, 2008 | 05:30 PM

in Media

Here's last nite's WTF Glass Steagel video:

click for video

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=687667784

Media Appearance: CNBC's Morning Call (3/18/08)

Tuesday, March 18, 2008 | 11:01 AM

in Media

This morning, I'll be debating about the upcoming Fed cuts on CNBC's Morning Call at 11:20am.

My arguments are quite simple: Since the Fed cut the discount rate on August 17, 2007, here is what has occurred:

- The CRB index is up 32%;

- The US $ Dollar index is down 13%;

- S&P500 is off more than 10%;

- Fed Fund Futures are now pricing in 100% chance of a 100bps cut;

- Generated high level chatter of a coordinated global, multi-national, currency intervention;

What the Fed is accomplishing by cutting rates is stimulating inflation, debasing the dollar, punishing savers, and making travel abroad exorbitantly expensive for all but the wealthiest Americans.

I believe that the FOMC should "man up," show some backbone -- cut rates by "only" 50 bps. They might find out what its like not to be at the Market's beck and call (girl). That should stabilize the greenback, and perhaps send food and energy prices lower (earning Ben the appreciation of consumers through out the country).

A little restraint would go a long way . . .

~~~

UPDATE: March 18, 2008 11:57 am

click for video

To Cut or Not to Cut?
Wall Street expects a big rate cut, with Barry Ritholtz, Fusion IQ; Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics and CNBC's Trish Regan

Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (3/17/08)

Monday, March 17, 2008 | 05:38 PM

in Media

Hey, look who's on Kudlow & Co. tonite, from 7:00pm to 7:30pm. Also on the show tonite are Art (92% undervalued SPX) Laffer, Andy Busch and Vince Farrell.

The Fed is acting appropriately to avert an entire financial system meltdown. Whether they will be successful is as of yet, unknown. As we are so fond of saying, there will be costs: Financial, economic, psychological, and prestige wise to this debacle. (More Dollar pressure, Gold & Oil both up) Market action today was positive: Bad news, big gap down, positive close. It is only one day, and it is likely in anticipation of FOMC tomorrow. We continue to look at this as a modest rally.

Here are the talking points I sent in:

1) This was not a “bail out,” at Two Dollars/share, it was an "Orderly Liquidation"

2) JPM looks to have gotten a great deal – the Fed is actually taking on the first $30Billion in risk; Unless BSC’s losses exceed that, it’s a winner for JPM.

3) The Fed took this risk because JPM could not possibly have done the due diligence over the weekend. (GS just took a $3 Billion hit).

4) A bailout for Wall Street may not be very palatable during a recession in a election year. Thus, we should expect a major Housing/Mortgage bailout along any day now. Cost: Very expensive.

5) JPM gets a terrific scapegoat for the next 4 (or 8 or 12) quarters to blame for all of their crappy paper, leveraged risk, and counter-party obligations

6) The impact of the credit crunch is -- disturbingly -- showing up in places you would never expect. Headline: 20% Of Silicon Valley Startups Can’t Get To Their Cash.

7) Lehman's chart looks shockingly like Bear Stearns chart

~~~

UPDATE: March 18, 2008 5:18am

Here's last nite's video:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=687667784

Media Appearance: Bloomberg TV (03/13/08)

Thursday, March 13, 2008 | 01:30 PM

in Media

Bloomberg_logo_rect

This afternoon I'm on Bloomberg TV, from 2:00pm to 2:20 or so discussing the Fed rescue plans, the Markets, and the creative destruction of capitalism.

Some bullet points I hope to hit:

• The policy debate between recession vs. inflation is so 2007. The more current debate is whether the Fed is pushing on a string, and if the USA is looking at a situation similar to Japan in the 1990s.

• Is the Fed's ongoing interference in the markets positive or negative? Should some fIrms be allowed to fail -- or at least get banged up enough that someone -- better risk management, stronger capitalization, smarter management -- is able to swoop in and buy 'em cheaper?

• Paulson's stronger mortgage rules are not a day late, and a dollar short -- they are a half decade late, a few a trillion dollars short . . .

If you are not near a TV, you can stream it. Should be fun. . .

UPDATE March 15, 2008 6:45am

click for video

Here's a cool new source for me: Find Internet TV.com

http://www.findinternettv.com/Video,item,3393597389.aspx

Reuter's Quote of the Day

Monday, March 10, 2008 | 09:14 PM

in Media | Politics

>
Hey, looks who is today's Reuters quote of the day:

Heh heh

Source:
INSTANT VIEW: Spitzer apologizes for "private matter"
Reuters Mon Mar 10, 2008 3:50pm EDTPost http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1047511820080310?sp=true

NYT Fed Quote

Sunday, March 09, 2008 | 08:01 AM

in Credit | Federal Reserve | Media

For the first time ever, I am on the front page of Sunday New York Times (and above the fold). The really cool part is I didn't kill anybody, steal $400 million dollars, or lose billions as a rogue trader.

"In the last seven months, policy makers have cut interest rates, injected money into the banking system and approved a fiscal stimulus package in an effort to keep the economy from slipping into a recession. Often, the moves seemed to work at first, only to be overtaken by more bad news.

The failure of any of the usual fiscal and monetary policy tools so far raises questions about what the Federal Reserve and federal government can do in the near term to counter the forces that have battered housing prices and pushed down the stock market and are now causing a hiring slowdown.

“There are times when there is only so much the Fed can do,” said Barry Ritholtz, chief executive of FusionIQ, an investment firm in New York. “It can smooth out the business cycle a little bit, but last I checked, we haven’t done away with the business cycle.”

One of the main problems now is a deepening crisis of confidence that is compounding the ill effects from the housing downturn. As lenders and businesses become more cautious about whom they lend to and hire, they are slowing an already weakened economy.

If the housing boom was a manifestation of irrational exuberance, some say it has swung too far in the other direction, to irrational despondency.

“Banks went from giving money away like drunken sailors to not lending to the most credit-worthy borrowers,” Mr. Ritholtz, who writes the popular economics blog The Big Picture, said.

How wild is that?

>

Don't Fight the Fed?

graphic courtesy NYT

Source:
Downturn Tests the Fed’s Ability to Avert a Crisis
VIKAS BAJAJ
NYT, March 9, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/09/business/09econ.html

The Humpty Dumpty Economy

Saturday, March 08, 2008 | 11:31 AM

in Media

Nice mention in Barron's this weekend, from our Thursday commentary, Household Equity at all time lows. Its in Alan Abelson's Up & Down Wall Street column.

Here is the excerpt via Barron's:

"The wrenching changes being wrought by a falling Humpty Dumpty economy, largely created by credit, and a swooning stock market, kited by leverage, are everywhere evident. Housing foreclosures swirled up to an all-time high of 0.83% of all mortgages nationwide. Over 5.8% of homeowners were behind in their mortgage payments, the largest number in upwards of two decades. House prices lost a staggering 8.9% in 2007 as a whole (and they're still tumbling).

Yet, despite the ubiquitous plunge in prices, the supply of unsold houses rose to four million, or to over 10 months' worth. Homeowners' equity fell below 50% for the first time since 1945, hitting a new low of 47.9%. As Barry Ritholtz nicely put it, never before have banks and the other various and sundry lenders owned more of the average American's house than he or she does.

Speaking of lenders, thrifts and savings outfits lost a cool $5.24 billion in the final quarter of '07, as they diligently wrote down tons of goodwill (perhaps it should more properly be called ill will).

In January, to continue this lugubrious litany of the damage done in the Humpty Dumpty economy and the ravages wrought by the bear market, the equity portfolios of the largest U.S pension plans, according to the calculations of Mercer, which keeps tabs on such things, shrunk by $110 billion. Not exactly chump change, even when it's other peoples' money.

We've long been a fan of Abelson's unvarnished views and delightful prose. Its always a privilege when our thoughts find their way into his columns . . .

Previously:
Federal Reserve: Household Equity at all time lows http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/underwater.html

Source:
The Great Fall: Here Comes The Humpty Dumpty Economy
ALAN ABELSON
UP AND DOWN WALL STREET
Barron's MARCH 10, 2008
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120493420479720885.html

~~~

NFP = -63,000 (Off to Bloomberg TV)

Friday, March 07, 2008 | 09:39 AM

in Economy | Employment | Media

Wow, thats quite a wallop -- the worst jobs report in 5 years:

"Payrolls fell by 63,000, the most in five years, after a revised decline of 22,000 in January, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate declined to 4.8 percent, reflecting a shrinking labor force as some people gave up looking for work."

As mentioned, earlier, any one data point is minor -- its the overall direction that is significant. Today's data reflects the prior trend's accelerating weakness.

~~~

I'm off to Bloomberg TV (10:00 - 10:15) to talk about this data point, and where you can hide out during the recession . . .

Source: Barron's Econoday

Sources:

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: FEBRUARY 2008
BLS, March 7, 2008
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

U.S. Unexpectedly Lost 63,000 Jobs in February (Unexpectedly?!? Really?)
Shobhana Chandra
Bloomberg, March 7 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJcGRsXmyltU&

Jobs post biggest drop in 5 years
Chris Isidore
CNNMoney.com, March 7, 2008: 8:55 AM EST
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/07/news/economy/jobs_february/index.htm?postversion=2008030708

Payrolls Declined in February, Increasing Fears of Recession
BRIAN BLACKSTONE
WSJ, March 7, 2008 9:20 a.m.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120489597965119543.html

Media Appearance: CNBC's Squawk on the Street (3/5/08)

Wednesday, March 05, 2008 | 09:00 AM

in Media

This morning, I am on CNBC's Squawk on the Street, at 9:30 - 9:40am for the opening bell.

The last time I was on with Mark and the lovely Erin was Jan 10 for their "Top Dog" segment -- I was the top forecaster in the WSJ for 2007 (you can see the Video of that appearance is here, where I discuss why these contests are meaningless).

My views remain the same as that January 10th show: At the time, I said we thought the first half of the year would be choppy with a negative bias, and its been pretty ugly since. (We had a good trading call on Morning Call Jan 23, but it was just a trade).

Also on January 10th, I mentioned Agriculture, Energy, and Consumer Staples as safe havens. I also said more weakness was in store for the US dollar, and that would be good for Oil and Gold prices, as well as mining stocks (we still like 'em).

I also said stay away from Tech and Financials, and I would reiterate that view today. We have been short AIG and short FNM for some time now, and they look like there is more pain to come.

All of these calls seem to be working in our favor at the moment.

So to reiterate, we remain cautious on US Equities, downright Bearish on overseas bourses, and believe things are likely to get even uglier before this is over. However, we could have a negative sentiment rally AGAIN -- like the Jan 23 call. But again, that's just a trade.

A few things to watch: Precious Metals remain our favorite sectors . . . Silver and Nat Gas are interesting also.

And, the January lows become crucial.

UPDATE: March, 5, 2008 2:14pm

click for video

Media Appearance: Closing Bell with Maria Bartiromo (2/19)

Tuesday, February 19, 2008 | 02:18 PM

in Media

Today's media fun is CNBC's Closing Bell at 3pm.

Maria Bartiromo and Dylan Ratigan will be interviewing me about the economy, some stock selections, and the market's near term prospects today at 3pm.

Between the credit crunch, $99.50 oil, and the strength in Technology names, we should have plenty to talk about . . .

~~~

UPDATE February 19, 2008 4:10pm

So weird to be on the floor of the exchange -- alone! No one is there -- its nothing like the old days when the floor was a hive of activity . . .

CNBC clip

Media Appearance: CNBC's Morning Call (2/12/08)

Tuesday, February 12, 2008 | 10:00 AM

in Media

This morning, I'll be guest hosting Morning Call on CNBC, from 11:00am to 12 noon.

On today's agenda:

- Buffett's bid to reinsure the monolines
- Slowing Economy, Credit Crunch, Financial woes
- Recession: How deep and long? When to increase US Equity exposure?
- Earnings progress
- Is this morning's pop sustainable?

As always, should be fun!

~~~

Here are the videos:

Buffett & the Monolines (ABK, MBIA, FGIC)

Mortgage Plan part I

Mortgage Plan part II

All Me, All the Time: Briefing.com

Monday, February 04, 2008 | 02:43 PM

in Contrary Indicators | Financial Press | Media

I have a few longer posts and analyses in the queue, but for today, its gonna be way too much me.

The latest is via Briefing.com:

Blog On

The blogosphere has become a more & more useful tool for many, & as Barry Ritholtz pointed out this morning, he has a new indicator...
"What is it? You. As a group, it seems that traffic to blogsites can be tracked as a contrary indicators -- especially when the market is under pressure. Note that the selloff in August, and then the more recent whackage in January, each created a major traffic spike -- which led to a bottom, and a healthy bounce... Now, maybe the content here suddenly got much better. It could be that I suddenly became a whole lot more insightful, or perhaps my prose more poetic -- but I doubt it. ..What most likely occurred was the market turmoil generated an influx of new visitors."
Bond Squad doesn't name check CNBC too often, but something's need to be noted: Perma-bull, perma-guest Dennis Kneale told a group that bloggers are too negative, essentially saying nobody make money by being negative.

OK. Tell that to the money managers, who have been, especially put holders who got their direction as well as a solid run-up in volatility levels.

Back in July, Barry noted "Last night on Kudlow, I was [excoriated] by Forbes editor Dennis Kneale for being too Bearish on the U.S. economy," that was about 10% ago on the DJIA (intra day) near 17% a week & change ago (S&P off 11.5% & 19.5% in same time frames).

-Beth Malloy

Man, a 10% bounce -- off of a 20% selloff -- and suddenly, the natives are getting cocky again.

Dennis, don't make me roll out the DK Top indicator again (I'll do ti! I will !)

Media Appearance: Fox Business News

Thursday, January 31, 2008 | 08:45 AM

in Media

Good morning.

I have a date today with the lovely Alexis Glick, discussing the Fed, the markets reaction to it, and what it might mean for the future. Sometime between 9:00 am and 9:30, we'll have a short chat.

This is my first visit to Fox Business News.

It should be interesting . . .

~~~

UPDATE: January 31, 2008 9:58am

(Videos below)

That was interesting. The FBN crew seems to be rather aware of the economic problems -- much more so than my last visit.

My favorite part of doing these shows is not the 5 minutes I get to spit out to sentences, but rather, the people I bump into in the Green Room. Today, it was Charles Payne, and of Liz McDonald of Forbes.

Video: The Big Picture