Traffic Peaked Again Near Short Term Bottom
A reader writes: "You have mentioned blog traffic spiking near bottoms. How'd that work out this week?"
Answer: Pretty good...
Below is the past 30 days traffic, with Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday circled in blue; Average volume is blue line.
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Previously:
Traffic Spike? (January 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/traffic-spike.html
Blog Traffic as a Contrary Market Indicator (February 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/02/blog-traffic-as.html
Traffic Indicates (June 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/traffic-indicat.html
Friday, July 18, 2008 | 04:30 PM | Permalink
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Bernanke Word Cloud
A good use of Wordle:
click for enormo graphic
Hey, its late! Open thread!
Wednesday, July 16, 2008 | 09:14 PM | Permalink
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Blog Milestones
A few blog milestones worthy of mention today:
Technorati Rank: Top 1,000 (993)
RSS Subscribers: Over 20,000
Technorati Authority 1,768
Blog Reaction 11,017
That is simply too cool!
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Thanks to all of our new and longstanding readers!
Thursday, July 03, 2008 | 05:00 PM | Permalink
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Posterous.com
Lately, I have been playing with Posterous -- a no coding necessary, post by email blog site. Email text, pictures, mp3s, whatever -- Post@Posterous.com -- and it appears like magic.
It is absurdly simply to use, and I already see how it is going to impact how I work. I typically gather a few links, stories, photos each day. Most of the time, they get saved for later, as the time sensitive data and news stories get priority. So I end up with links, email, articles at home, in the office, on the laptop.
This makes it easy to gather all of the items I may want to post or save for posterity.
I also like the clean light Google inspired interface. I'm not sure what the business model is, other than ramping up subscribers and selling eyeballs.
The whole package is very, very clever.
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http://bigpicture.posterous.com/
Tuesday, July 01, 2008 | 04:30 PM | Permalink
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WTF? 10 Best Gloom And Doom Sites
This is one odd list: Really? Greg Mankiw -- Doom & Gloom? What the hell is that about?
Here's the list, the full commentary is at the site:
1. Daily Reckoning
2. Clusterfuck Nation
3. The Big Picture
4. DollarCollapse.Com
5. Angry Bear
6. Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
7. Naked Capitalism
8. Peter Schiff
9. GREG MANKIW'S BLOG
10. The mess that greenspan made
I don't know whether to be proud or insulted . . .
Tuesday, July 01, 2008 | 02:00 PM | Permalink
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The Big Picture X 3?
WTF ?
First we see the wankers at the Boston Globe stealing my blog name . . . Now the pedophiles bootjacks at the The L.A. Times are doing the same.
C'mon! Get your own f*&%in names!
I may have to follow my readers advice and get the lawyers involved...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008 | 07:30 PM | Permalink
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Presidential Watch '08 Political Blogsphere Map
Cool interactive map of the Political Blogosphere -- now if only it were 3D !
Thanks, Dave!
Tuesday, June 24, 2008 | 04:30 PM | Permalink
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Post # 6,000
Yes, that is correct -- this meaningless meta-data point is post number 6,000
Here is what the specifics look like before this one:
• 5,999 Posts
• 89,528 Comments
• 2,066 TrackBacks
On a related note, the new site design is all done -- its pretty slick -- and the programmers are working on importing every last post and comment.
I had a few goals with the redesign:
1) Have the site load much faster: We did that by cleaning up all the loose junk on the front page that had accumulated using tabs, moving to my own domain, and moving all of the audio/video to a tab so as not to slow down the front page.
2) Clean up the design: I like the current design, but its been a few years and I wanted something fresh. We came up with something neat -- with a little animation -- and a simple navigation system.
3) Create additional space for related material: Essentially, all of the various stuff I do is spread out all over the place. The new design allows me to tie everything together, in one place.
~~~
I expect after the Fourth of July weekend, we should be good to go. I'll maintain both sites, forwarding everything from here to there . . .
Monday, June 23, 2008 | 08:34 PM | Permalink
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Traffic Indicates . . .
In the Soros discussion this morning, Drey asks (in comments):
"Curious about what your unofficial # of visits to the site indicator may be telling you about the likelihood of an oversold bounce on Monday. My gut tells me that while this may be possible or even likely, one of these days a big distribution day will be followed by an even bigger distribution day as the bottom falls out completely and that's when the fun will really start.
So which will it be, short term bounce or 'look out below'? Either way the Jan/March lows will be taken out by the end of summer so I guess you can kill me fast or kill me slow..."
That's a good question worth digging into: As the chart below shows, Traffic has been softening this entire week, at least when compared to the prior three weeks.
In the past, we have seen big traffic spikes accompany tradable bottoms. We are not seeing the same degree of fear we have seen in prior whooshes down. Whether that's a function of sentiment, vacations -- or just me slacking off -- I cannot say for sure.
However, I am unsure as to how valid this lack of traffic spike is as an indicator. Hey, Summer officially starts today -- and we do not have a whole lot of past examples to draw from. I can say that I didn't get the sense of a high volume panic that accompanied the prior traffic spikes -- like the ones we saw on January 23rd.
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via Sitemeter
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Previously:
Blog Traffic as a Contrary Market Indicator (February 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/02/blog-traffic-as.html
Traffic Spike? (January 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/traffic-spike.html
~~~
Saturday, June 21, 2008 | 06:00 PM | Permalink
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World Affairs Monthly Interview: Insanity Distilled
Earlier this week, I did an extensive, far ranging interview with Thomas Pochari of the World Affairs Monthly. We touched on the massive changes in technology, media and business, the new frontier, this internet thingie, and the de-institutionalizing of society.
It was quite fun and for those of you who have asked for more podcasts, here's your request filled.
click for Real Player audio
For those of you who listen to the very end, I debate myself as to who is the bigger schmuck -- me, or Steve Ballmer. Its a close call, but the conclusion should come as no surprise.
Thomas' description of the interview is beyond generous:
"Johann Gutenberg changed the world with his printing press. He put the scribes and religious despots and freaks out of business. We are now moving to the next level. The book publishers in New York City and London now decide what ideas are important. Yes, they are still in power, but not for much longer. The religious scribes of the 21st century will soon be out of a job. Gutenberg ushered in Phase 2 of history. Now we are moving into Phase 3 of history. I have explained in WAM my role and my theory of the three phases of history. Do check up on my assertions and theories. I assure you that we are living in a very unusual and dramatic time of history.
I recently called up Barry Ritholtz to see how he sees things. I figured he would be interesting, and he certainly was. He is a Wall Street guy: he is the CEO and director of equity research at Fusion IQ. We surveyed quite thoroughly the rapidly changing landscape. Ritholtz is funny and sometimes quite brilliant. I enjoyed the discussion. Click here or on the audio icon above to listen to the editor of World Affairs Monthly interview Barry L. Ritholtz. Fusion IQ can be found on the net at www.fusioniqrank.com. Ritholtz is also a blogger. The Big Picture can be found on the net at http://bigpicture.typepad.com.
Funny, sure, but brilliant? Perhaps we should just chalk that up to way too much caffeine . . .
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Source:
DE-INSTITUTIONALIZING A HYPER-INSTITUTIONALIZED (AND DECREPIT) WORLD
Thomas Pochari
http://www.worldaffairsmonthly.com/article.php?id=3&date=June-2008
Friday, June 20, 2008 | 01:15 PM | Permalink
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2008 Inman Innovator Awards
Huzzah! The Big Picture is nominated for a 2008 Inman Innovator Awards finalists in the category of Blog.
As they say, it is an honor just to be nominated!
Here are the full run of nominees:
Brokerage or Franchise
Chase International
Diamond Dwellings
Equitable Sotheby's International Realty
Redfin
Sawbuck Realty
New Technology
BlueRoof360
Mixpo
Obeo
Roost
Terabitz
Web Service
Estately
ForeclosureRadar
Krunching
Realius
Zillow Mortgage
Marketplace
Blog
1000Watt
Blog
AgentGenius
Big Picture Blog
FBS Blog
Homegain Real Estate Blog
Media Site
Frontdoor
OpenHouse.com
REA Group
Realtytrac
Zolve
Source:
Inman News announces Innovator Awards finalists
List includes Frontdoor, Realtytrac, Redfin, Roost, Zillow
Inman News, Monday, June 16, 2008
http://www.inman.com/news/2008/06/16/inman-news-announces-innovator-awards-finalists
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Thursday, June 19, 2008 | 01:00 PM | Permalink
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Fun With Wordle
Fun little Java applet that let's you create a word cloud based on any text (including a blog post).
I did 3:
1) Our earlier discussion on Sentiment:
2) Last months Guide for NYC Tourists:
3) A full four years worth of Real Estate & Housing related posts:
Tuesday, June 17, 2008 | 04:30 PM | Permalink
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AP Fair Use & Blogging Link Policy
Someone beat me to it:
"Here's our new policy on A.P. stories: they don't exist. We don't see them, we don't quote them, we don't link to them. They're banned until they abandon this new strategy, and I encourage others to do the same until they back down from these ridiculous attempts to stop the spread of information around the Internet."
Done . . .
Tuesday, June 17, 2008 | 02:00 PM | Permalink
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Ten Notes on Crude
David Merkel has a good Sunday morning read posted Ten Notes on Crude Oil: The Fixation:
In different economic eras, different things attract the attention of the media, investors, politicians, etc. Today a leading attention grabber would be crude oil, and the energy complex. It is a honeypot for conspiracy theorists and unscrupulous politicians (not quite an oxymoron).
Reading all 10 this morning is a worthwhile exercise.
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Previously:
The Costanza Energy Policy: 25 Ways to Drive Oil to $150
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/how-to-drive-oi.html
Sunday, June 15, 2008 | 09:14 AM | Permalink
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Pensions & Investments: Ranking the blogs
Editors give ‘The Big Picture’ first-place honors in competition for Internet’s best financial postings
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Wow! Absurdly nice things from the Editors of Pensions&Investments, who in an obvious attempt to drive sales lower, put my frightening mug on the cover of this bi-week's magazine.
Apparently, this print edition and daily email newsletter held a competition of sorts, looking at all manners of financial and market blogs.
Their comments were kind and generous and all too complimentary:
"The site was one judge’s idea of “what a blog should be.” “Not boring. One of the best I've seen,” one judge wrote. “Sharp, fresh commentary ... great stuff,” another said.
I am humbled by their words, and it is an honor to be mentioned in the company of all of the blogs selected by P&I.
Here are P&I's rankings in their competition:
The Big Picture (Gold)
Infectious Greed (Silver)
DealBreaker (Bronze)
WSJ MarketBeat
Footnoted.org
Seeking Alpha
PE Hub
Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor
All About Alpha
FT Alphaville
Pension Risk Matters
DealBook
Naked Shorts
There are many many other worthy blogs that were omitted, as you can see in my blog roll -- as well as those I ran out of room for!
Congrats to all.
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Sources:
Ranking the blogs
Editors give ‘The Big Picture’ first-place honors in competition for Internet’s best financial postings
Drew Carter
P&I, June 9, 2008, 6:01 AM EST
http://www.pionline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080609/PRINTSUB/161003060/1031
Pensions & Investments' Best Blogs and how they got that way
Thao Hua
P&I, June 9, 2008, 6:01 AM EST
http://www.pionline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080609/REG/244341431/103
Wednesday, June 11, 2008 | 12:30 PM | Permalink
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Blogroll Changes
I'm committed to making the blog roll more manageable. To that end, I've pulled 3 blogs that are now defunct, and added one:
Addition:
Vox EU -- a policy portal set up by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (www.CEPR.org) in conjunction with a consortium of national sites, including the Italian site LaVoce (www.LaVoce.info), which provided inspiration for the idea and help from the start; the French site Telos (www.telos-eu.com); and the Spanish site Sociedad Abierta (www.sociedadabierta.es).
Subtractions:
Herb Greenberg Marketblog (May 1, 2008)
Macroblog (October 2007)
Max Speaks ( September 01, 2007)
Also dinged:
The Secret Diary of Steve Jobs Once its author became public, I stopped reading it -- all the fun went away . . .
I regularly peruse the blogs on my list. You should, too.
Wednesday, June 04, 2008 | 05:00 PM | Permalink
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Do-It-Yourself Memorial Day Linkfest
I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday weekend -- I have the iPod charged up, the burgers ready to for the grill, some SPF 8, and lots and lots of weekend reading.
Since the linkfest is on hiatus, here's a fun suggestion: Use the comments to suggest your favorite link from the past 8 days (Sunday to Sunday). I'll see if I can't massage something together over the weekend out of them.
The rules are simple: Post the Headline, source name (in parens), a paragraph or two, and the full link. -- Be sure to put the link in the space marked URL; this way, your name will be the hotlink to the article. Those of you comfortable with HTML can use this code <a href="URL-GOES-HERE">Title</a>
The rough proportions of content should be approximately:
70%: Anything Market, Economic, Investing/Trading, Federal Reserve, Sentiment/Psychology, Earnings/Valuation, Credit/Derivative or Housing related.
20%: Technology, Science, Media, War & Defense, Politics
10%: Music, Film, Books Fun!
Bonus points goes to those who find really cool but overlooked articles. The trade-off is content quality always trumps obscurity of source (meaning, some junk is unknown for a reason).
That's the formula for my linkfest -- let's see if our crowd-sourcing do-it-yourself experimental fest generates anything interesting.
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LINK AWAY !
Saturday, May 24, 2008 | 04:30 PM | Permalink
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Mapping The Blogosphere
How cool is this depiction of link analysis ? Yes, I know its circa 2006 -- but its still pretty neat.
Sources:
Welcome To The Blogosphere
Discovery Magazine, May 2007:
http://discovermagazine.com/2007/may/map-welcome-to-the-blogosphere
Data Mining: Mapping The Blogosphere
http://datamining.typepad.com/gallery/blog-map-gallery.html
Interactive Map of the Blogosphere
http://datamining.typepad.com/data_mining/2006/07/interactive_map.html
Tuesday, May 20, 2008 | 04:30 PM | Permalink
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Copyright, Links, Fair Use & Reproduction
I get requests from publishers to link to, and/or reproduce, content here all the time.
Copyright law is pretty clear as to what is legal: Anyone can link to any content on the internet, including "deep links." It is considered "Fair Use" to reproduce a paragraph or two -- a small proportion of the total article -- in another work. Reproducing the entire work without the Author's permission is not allowed.
Now you know . . .
illustration via Erik J. Heels
Sunday, May 18, 2008 | 06:30 AM | Permalink
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Comments, Trolls, Asshats
One of the things I try to do with the site is maintain a high level of discourse between myself and the readers. As the traffic to the site has ramped up, we have attracted more political wankers, trolls, asshats than is conducive to intelligent conversation.
This post is a reminder as to how I deal with these folks, excerpted from our lovingly constructed Disclosures & Terms of Use.
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First off, I attempt to read every comment that goes up. I read all email, but make no promises about responding.
All email addresses on comments are not published, but I do see them. Comments with real office email addresses (GS.com, etc.) get priority. Hotmail is frowned upon, as it has become a garbage address and refuge for spammers. Cowardly "anons" barely get glanced at. If I am unable to respond to you privately due to a bogus email address ("John@Yahoo.com") don't be surprised if you get a snarky answer in your own comment.
When posting your first ever Big Picture comment, I suggest you make
it informative, interesting, on topic, and of of moderate length -- a
paragraph or two. Lazy one sentence or one word comments typically get
deleted. (First! gets you banned). Rambling 1000 word comments
also get edited or deleted (*GYOFBM!). Comments on much older posts are
also suspect.
I post comments in my own name. Anytime I edit anyone else's posts, I clearly mark it as such
~~~
BR: like this.
On occasion I will post someone else's email (or telephone call) as a comment in their first name ("Bob") or initials ("JB") -- because they can't. My circle of colleagues and friends includes many people who due to their employers compliance policies risk their jobs by posting comments.
I onlyon rare occasions will delete reader comments after the fact
on their own request (Its been done less 5 times). If you post
something that years from now is embarrassing, well, that's just too
bad. Think twice before ranting like a jackass.
URLs in Comments: I encourage people to link back to other sources and sites in comments. However, keep it on topic. Hijacking posts with irrelevant links to unrelated subjects is the fats track to deletion and banning.
Feel free to put your own blog/site in the URL space when entering comments.
However, URLs in the body of comments that are merely self-promotional (i.e., do not add to the content) may be deleted, and their authors branded linkwhores. If I suspect you are merely posting short comments in order to enhance your Google score, I may leave the comment but delete your URL.
Want some of my Google Juice? Play by my rules.
Trackbacks: I encourage Trackbacks from
non-commercial sites discussing the issues we chew over here. However,
since trackbacks and comments can also be a way to raise your Google
score, trackbacks that appear to be grabs for Google score will also be
deleted. Commercial trackbacks will be invoiced as advertising.
Assignments: There are few things that I find more annoying than disingenuous rhetoric. "Why are you ignoring X? You must post on this NOW."
No, no I mustn't. I do not, and will not, under any circumstances, accept your
homework assignments. They
will be deleted, and your troll potential score will skyrocket.
Instead, you fat lazy bastard, do some homework yourself. Then, post a
clever observation and URL. Perhaps you will stimulate a conversation.
Of course, you could always write your own blog, 'cepting your constant
masturbation makes typing exceedingly slow.
Worse still are the emails asking for my opinion on this, or would you comment on that. In 90% of the cases, I have already covered the subject extensively (if only the emailer bothered to look). See the Google search box up top?
My apologies to the remaining 10%, but that's how it goes: Like so many things, a small group has ruined it for everyone else.
Trolls and Asshats:
This may be a free country, but The Big Picture is my personal
fiefdom. I rule over all as benevolent dictator. I will ban anyone whom I choose from posting comments -- usually,
for a damned good reason, but on rare occasions, for the exact same
reason God created the platypus: because I feel like it.
I encourage a broad range of perspectives, philosophies, market positions, sexual orientations. Dissent is good. I want to see a debate of views, a battle in the market place of ideas ala Thomas Jefferson. You can post on nearly anything, so long as it is at least tangentially related to the topic at hand.
On occasion, I will "unpublish" a comment if I feel it is too impolite, harsh, ad hominem, inappropriate, or off-topic. Off-topic posts have been rising, and I have taken to unpublishing them en masse. Publish too many comments on a given post (3 or 4 relevant comments out of 30 are fine, 10 out of 30 is excessive). It takes me ~10 seconds to un-publish 10 comments. If you find yourself publishing way too many comments, consider this: This humble blog is my forum for expressing my ideas. Get your own damned blog.
Lately, I have been doing more than unpublishing nonsense posts -- I simply en masse mark them as spam, and kiss that IP address good bye.
I also have been reviewing the IP addresses of posters, and looking at all of their comments. If they either publish under multiple names (I love a comment and then a subsequent comment agreeing with themselves) or simply post alot of jacked up nonsense, they get the same treatment. They won't be missed.
Getting Banned for Life:
A few things that will get you permanently banned from commenting at The Big Picture. The fastest way to lose posting privileges is to misrepresent your host's complex and nuanced views in some inane bumper sticker comment.
Other fast tracks to getting banned:
- Knowingly posting false or malicious material;
- multiple postings under different names;
- generally engaging in troll-like behavior;
- misquoting your host/overlord;
- being impolite in the extreme;
- ad hominem attacks;
- being an asshole.
Right now, someone is reading this and saying to themselves "What does he mean, being an asshole?" If you wondered that to yourself, well the odds strongly favor that you yourself have sphincter-like qualities. Thus, you should consider it likely that you will be banned as a rectoid from posting comments sometime in the near future.
______________
*GYOFB stands for Get Your Own Fucking Blog
Sunday, May 11, 2008 | 05:00 PM | Permalink
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Good Morning
I don't know why, but Wylie Gustafson's audio tag for Yahoo! has always amused me:
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See this for more on the Yahoo yodel's history
Monday, May 05, 2008 | 09:45 AM | Permalink
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NFP Roundup
If you missed any of our payroll coverage on Friday and Saturday, here's a full roundup:
Bracing for NFP Day
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/bracing-for-nfp.html
Once more unto the breach
Reviewing the NFP Data
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/reviewing-the-n.htmlJob Loss Trend Dismal
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/job-loss-trend.html
Gail Dudack's Research Group
NFP Minus Birth Death Adjustments http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/nfp-minus-birth.htmlNonSeasonally Adjusted Data?
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/nonseasonally-a.html
Monday, May 05, 2008 | 09:00 AM | Permalink
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'Like Watching Dinosaurs Mate'
As we await what is happening with Microsoft and Yahoo, Aaron Task and I discussed the bigger picture as to what happens next on the internet.
This was all pretty off the cuff stuff (in case you cannot tell) but its how I really feel about the players involved:
That headline was actually spontaneous (I can turn a phrase, huh?)
Ok, feel free to write what a MSFT basher I am (no arguments from me)
Thursday, May 01, 2008 | 10:38 AM | Permalink
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BP World Traffic
Here's an interesting map of BP traffic via Google Analytics:
#2, "Not set" is likely AOL users.
Alameda is # 20? Really?
Wednesday, April 23, 2008 | 05:15 PM | Permalink
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NYU Lecture: Business, Media, and Blogging
I am giving a lecture tonight at NYU's Stern School of Business on Business, Media, and Blogging. Also appearing will be Henry Blodget of Silicon Alley Insider and Andrew Ross Sorkin of the New York Times DealBook.
The class is taught by Tunku Varadarajan, clinical professor of business at NYU Stern, and is the former op-ed editor at the Wall Street Journal. (I believe its open only to NYU students).
Questions:
-How business blogs have fared in the world of niche/specialist blogs?
-Does the business world lend itself especially well to blogging?
-Are there problems/pitfalls inherent in business blogs that are different from those inherent in blogs in general?
-Do blogs move/shape/affect markets?
-Do biz bloggers have special responsibilities?
-Should CEOs blog?
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Previously:
WSJ Joins the Blogging Crowd (March 2006)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/03/dow_jones_blogg.html
MSM Blogging Review: NYT Starts Blogging too (March 2006)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/03/blogging_review.html
The Media Goes Blog Crazy! (June 2006)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/06/the_media_goes_.html
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | 05:04 PM | Permalink
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Aggregating the Aggregators
Over the past few weeks, I have featured several economics/market web aggregators. They all tend to have a focus on business, though many come from overall aggregators that have tabs for different topics.
Since I like to recursively get all meta on you, here's my aggregation of all a few dozen blog aggregators, primarily in the Business, Tech and Video space:
(Let me know in the comments which ones I missed, if any . . .)
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click on any of these to be taken to their site
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Abnormal Returns
BlogRolling
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Continue reading "Aggregating the Aggregators"
Friday, April 18, 2008 | 11:00 AM | Permalink
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Big Picture Upgrade & Redesign
I am now working with my programmers and designers on The Big Picture, version 3.0.
This is going to be a substantial reworking, with a lot of upgrades in terms of both content and functionality.
Before I start the serious design work, now is the time to ask you, the readers, for what else you might like to see happen in terms of those two design elements.
So - what's on your wish list? What would like to see in terms of content? What options should be added to the site? What additional functions are you interested in?
No idea is too out there for this process.
The sky is the limit -- I want to hear everything you would like to see happen with the Big Picture, including moving to its own domain, and perhaps going to Wordpress.
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Whay say ye ?
Thursday, April 17, 2008 | 08:19 PM | Permalink
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