As the chart in todays post highlights Jeffries (JEF) may be the next brokerage firm to struggle. After scoring a major top (orange dotted semi-circle) shares then broke what had been longstanding support (double red lines). Once broken this support became a big resistance zone which shares then subsequently failed at on its recent snap back rally. Of a more critical note is the fact that JEF shares are tesitng a longer term trend line (green line) for the third time in a relatively short period of time. The high frequency of trend line tests in such a short period of time suggest that a likely trend break is coming soon. A close below $ 14.00 would be a crucial breakdown and suggest a move to the $ 10.00 to $ 9.00 region.
Raising the odds we are right here is the fact that JEF shares have a low FusionIQ Master Rank Score of just 41 (out of a possible 100)
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October 22, 2008
October 20, 2008
CTGX shares may offer opportunity
Computer Task Group, Incorporated (CTGX) which provides business consulting, electronic business, and information technology management solutions has held up admirably during this correction and has a FusionIQ Master Technical score of 93. Given it's strong relative strength and high FusionIQ ranking we think CTGX shares have a chance to outperform over the coming months.
Additionally, 10 of the top 15 institutional shareholders (who one could argue know the company better than anyone) have all upped their holdings in their most recent reported holding filings.
To see more stock ideas like CTGX visit us today at www.fusioniqrank.com and subscribe today !!
Dow consolidating off recent lows
As seen in the attached 31-day cart of the Dow Jones we see the index has recently set higher lows but has also set lower highs. These converging peaks and troughs highlighted by the red lines suggest a resolution of this trading range is coming soon. Given the host of sentiment indicators that suggest we are at a bottom we would expect this range to resolve itself to the upside A move back above Friday's peak near 9,281 would be a bullish confirmation.
October 17, 2008
Another Senitment BUY - U. of Mich. Survey similar reading to 1970's Bear Market low level
Sentiment Data has been screaming a buy for several days now. Today we see that the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence level is at levels not seen since the end of the 1970's bear market. If that doesn't scream sentiment is apocolyptic I don't know what does.
To see more interesting charts such as this please visit www.fusioniqrank.com and sign up today !!
October 16, 2008
MDT Testing Critical Support
As seen in the above monthly chart MDT (FusionIQ Master Score 26 out of 100) shares are on the verge of a big collapse if they close below $ 35.00 as this would be a major breach of support (red line) after breaking its long-term uptrend (green dashed line). Now there may be an attempt to hold or bounce it from support but any sustained time below $ 35.00 opens prices to $25.00 (black line) then ultimately a longer term target of $ 14.00 (blue line). |
Newspapers stocks still weak
As seen in the attached charts of Gannett (GCI), publisher of the USA Today and the New York Times (NYT) publishing stocks have been under pressure for some time. Note that FusionIQ flashed very, very timely SELL SHORT signals in both names in MAY/JUNE before both fell very sharply.
GCI made new lows yesterday and never bounced in the markets recent two day run up, so although these stocks appear to be beaten down they may keep going lower so avoid the temptation to bottom fish. To get other timely signals such as GCI and NYT or other stocks your interested in subscribe to FusionIQ today at www.fusioniqrank.com/signup.php  |
October 10, 2008
Can you tell which chart is which ??
Can you tell which chart is which ? Very interesting how the top chart (the 2002 low) and the (the current market chart – lower chart) look almost identical – food for thought – could today be the capitulation day ? If the pictures don’t lie we may be there !!
October 09, 2008
Sentiment Continues to Get Bullish
If one wants to be totally objective and unemotional then this chart of the VIXʼs Devation from itsʼ 50-day moving average shows that we have a screaming BUY signal. As the red circles above show all major lows in the last 10 years have had VIX deviation from 50-day moving average readings north of 15.00, the PRESENT READING IS 26 !! All of these lows saw significant market snapback rallies as follows:
· 1998 Reading Market Up + 27 % (3 Months Later) and + 36 % (6 Months Later)
· 2001 Reading Market Up + 22 % (3 Months Later) and + 22 % (6 Months Later)
· 2002 Reading Market Up + 14 % (3 Months Later) and + 19% (6 Months Later)
If historical evidence holds correct then this reading should provide a similar solid tradable rally.
October 08, 2008
TIME MAGAZINE - " THE NEW HARD TIMES" Contrary Indicator ?
This just in - TIME Magazine’s Cover says this is “ The New Hard Times ”and depict people in a bread line. Historically when non Financial publications such as TIME publish front page cover stories about something that is not their typical story lines (ie. such as the financial markets) it has turned out to be an opportune time to buy stocks – with sentiment indicators flashing buys and now the Time cover. So while may it not be at the ultimate low just yet were are getting closer.
Bottoms Take Time to Form
Following up on yesterday’s sentiment piece which detailed how investors are under-allocated to stocks and over-allocated to cash relative to their 21-yr respective mean allocations, the futures bumped early n the AM after a globally coordinated central bank rated cut was announced. Presently the futures are giving up that early morning strength. That said we still believe that investors aren’t fearful enough and that the coordinated easing will be perceived as a sign of just how bad things are - we think we need one more purge to wash out all the sellers.
However don’t be in a rush to find the bottom as they tend to take longer times to form (lasting ones) as the attached image below shows the S&P 500 took 9 months in 2002 to complete its bottoming process. Next support comes in at 950 on the S&P (black line) then 932.
