Thursday, September 16, 2004

Presidential Race tightens as Bounce fades

Sen. John Kerry and President Bush are now enjoying almost equal levels of support, according to the latest Harris Interactive poll.

Immediately after the Republican convention in New York, several polls showed Mr. Bush jumping ahead of Mr. Kerry with a clear lead of between six and 11 percentage points. There's no such "convention bounce" for the president in the latest poll by Harris.

The Harris poll, conducted by telephone Sept. 9-13, shows Sen. Kerry leading Mr. Bush 48% to 47% among likely voters nationwide. The poll also found that a slender 51% to 45% majority doesn't believe that Mr. Bush deserves to be re-elected.

The previous poll in which likely U.S. voters were asked which candidate they preferred showed Messrs. Kerry and Bush tied 47% to 47%. That survey was conducted before the Republican National Convention in New York City, which ended earlier this month. An earlier poll in June indicated a Bush lead over Mr. Kerry of 10 percentage points, at 51% to 41%.

The latest poll was conducted within the U. S. among a nationwide cross section of 1,018 adults. It has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points.

The results echo a recent poll sponsored by Investor's Business Daily, which also showed that the gap between the U.S. presidential candidates has disappeared. The poll of likely voters showed the two candidates tied at 47% in a two-man race and tied at 46% if independent candidate Ralph Nader is included.

Here are the results of the latest Harris poll:

"If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"*

Base: Likely Voters
  April June August Now
George Bush 46% 51% 47% 47%
John Kerry 43 41 47 48
Ralph Nader 8 6 3 2
None of these 1 * * *
Not sure/Refused 2 1 3 3
Bush Lead +3 +10 0 -1
*If respondent said "not sure/refused," question was reworded: "Well, if you had to say, would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"

NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding

* * *

"Based on who he is and his record, do you think George W. Bush deserves to be re-elected for another four years?"

Base: Likely Voters
  Total
Deserves to be re elected 45%
Does not deserve to be re-elected 51
Not sure/Refused 4




Sources:
Harris Poll Shows Tight Presidential Race
The WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE
September16,2004
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB109526872487418642,00.html

Posted at 01:29 PM in Politics | Permalink

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Comments

Why not post every other poll that shows Bush holding and even building on his convention bounce? Why only post the flawed Harris poll? Have you seen the amazing increase Bush has enjoyed since the convention in the battleground states? Even New York is within striking distance? For fair and balanced Presidential poll watching check out this site of a Kerry supporter....
www.electoral-vote.com
Especially look at the historic numbers in the battleground states and see how Bush is buildng an insurmountable lead.

Posted by: Frank Myers | Sep 16, 2004 7:52:35 PM

1. I post the polls that I find the most interesting -- either they have a different slant, or go against the dominant meme.

The poll I cite most frequently is the WSJ/Zogby battleground

2. I singled out electoral-vote as an interesting resource months ago;

3. I also suggested looking at all polling data

4. Yes, I did see the post convention bounce -- hence, the title of this post:
"Presidential Race tightens as Bounce fades"

5. NY is in striking distance? Put the hookah down and back away from the table . . .

Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | Sep 16, 2004 10:57:32 PM

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