Thursday, September 01, 2005

Long Island: Dreading a Replay of the 1938 Hurricane

click for enormous graphic


graphic courtesy of NYT



"Conditions are right this year for one or more especially severe storms to lash the Island, they say. But it's been a long time - 67 years - since the last Big One, and officials worry that Long Islanders accustomed to the glancing blows of minor storms have little grasp of just how devastating a major hurricane could be.

"The only people who really have any idea are those who lived through the 1938 storm," said Michael E. Wyllie, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service office in Upton, referring to the unnamed hurricane that laid waste to eastern Long Island that year. "And you are talking about people who are into their 70's to even remember it."


Dreading a Replay of the 1938 Hurricane
The New York Times, August 28, 2005

Posted at 07:30 AM in Media, Science | Permalink


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Let's all remember that many of these SLOSH models, as well as other localized flooding reports, are all based on geographical surveys that were composed during the early 1980s when there was an actual barrier beach. An example of this data might be found in Long Island Suffolk and Nassau County Hurricane Mitigation Plan, written by Koppelman et. al many years ago and published in 1985. Since then no other source has been published.

Today the flooding would be more extreme because the barrier beaches would breach in many areas even before the actual "eye" came within proximity of the shore.

These means that in some areas, a strong Cat.3 is going to send the water up to and around Southern State Parkway, a very scary but realistic fact.

Posted by: Nick P. | Jan 31, 2006 8:02:29 PM

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