My favourite time of year. What’s better than a dog in a costume? How about two, with one riding the other? Check out the photo bottom right for the result.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Glossary of Trading Terms and Phrases
via Dopey Cowboy
Better Lucky than Smart – The only thing we have going for us.
Buyer Outside – Something sales traders say to force your hand when they get tired of watching you play stock market.
Clean up - If you believe that I have a bridge to show you.
CSA – Clusterf**k Service Alternative: When it’s easier for you client to just write a check rather than trade with your team of farm animals.
DFIU – The latest IM catch phrase meaning “Don’t F**k It Up”.
Discount Bid – Chinese trading fire drill. There’s a 1 in 10,000 chance you actually get a trade on at the price but it’s a good exercise for going through the motions and a great way to kill a few minutes and piss some people off.
Down a Touch – This thing just came off like a f**king prom dress.
Fair and Reasonable – Something the buy-side has no concept of.
Fast Money – Just means they’ve got money moving out the door quicker.
Fill or Kill – Respond this second or deal with the consequences of this extremely illiquid stock not trading and me miraculously catching a second buyer who wants to bid you for the exact same amount in about a half hour or so.
Find out who’s moving the stock - Pick a name out of a hat.
Floor Looks: The only way to be 100% wrong 100% of the time.
Good Guy – Doesn’t ask me any difficult questions.
Great Guy – Doesn’t ask me any difficult questions and gives me business.
Happy – “Happy to get involved”, “Happy to get you started” – Although coming across like Mr. Sunshine, It’s Wall Street’s way of reminding you that your sales trader is just a whore at heart and willing to take one in the keester if it gets him an order.
Hedge Fund Hotels– Crowded names; like roach motels… only now with phone taps.
I have a call into my analyst – If it’s important, go get the info somewhere else.
I won’t embarrass you: Unbuckle your pants.
I’ll just make one call – I will make sure you’re the only client who gets blocked while we super message your indication to the entire planet.
Intelligent Questions – “Why is XYZ down 8%” – translates into help me get my PM off my back.
In Touch With (ITW) – Often fabricated by sales traders. It’s the practice of throwing lots of shit at the wall and seeing what sticks.
ITW 2 Ways – I have no opinion on the stock or any idea what’s going on in the room because I’ve been surfing the web for the past three hours and I need to get involved.
It Wasn’t Me – Of course it was me. Stocks don’t move like that by themselves.
Lay Up – You’re fucked and/or customer wants something.
Make it Right: Let’s ignore all those pesky rules, regulations and what actually traded for a minute.
More Behind – It doesn’t matter who’s saying it, it means the customer doesn’t trust his coverage enough to give him his whole number.
Must Be the Program Desk – That’s how you explain to an inquiring account about a stock you’re #1 in but failed to shop even once.
Natural – This is the term brokers use and pretend to have when you’re stupid enough to mention interest in a name. Beware sales traders who like to use the term natural It’s like somebody who volunteers the term honestly after a statement. Usually ‘natural’ is as unnatural as Chastity Bono’s surgically manipulated genitalia.
Nine to Five Jobs - Storybook fairy tales told to blue-collar children.
On the side-lines – Synonymous with you’re done for the day and I’m moving on to the next broker.
Open Up Down - If you hear somebody say “the stock is going to open up down fifty cents”, that’s code for they should be flipping burgers for a living and you need to hang up the phone immediately.
Options Related – Any 7 figure trade you’re too lazy to explore must have been “options related.”
Plugged - Just like it sounds, only you don’t have time to reach for the KY.
PM Limit - Sure it is.
Seller is over-the-day: I really have nothing and was lying the entire time to try and get you in.
Short Squeeze – explanation given for any stock up more than 4% when you’re too busy with another client to check it out.
Smart Money – 65% of that crowd has gone out of business over the past 18 months and half of what’s left is either getting squeezed or subpoenaed. There is no smart money.
Systems Problem - I owe you a print. I’m just scrambling to figure out how much stock I missed so I know how much to print you on.
Straight home – 2am best.
Step it Out – April Fools!
Takes me out of the name – there’s a few million more. I’ll just pretend to catch another seller tomorrow… or later.
Top Tick – Usually paid by institutional buyers
Traded Away – Your client just douched you.
Treat me Subject - I’m indecisive and want to make sure it’s going my way first.
Understood - I’m not sure what you just said so I’m just gonna wing it and hope you don’t call.
Wanted to Let it Trade Without Me – I went outside for lunch and totally forgot I put a limit on the f**king thing.
VWAP – No conviction.
Vanilla – Generic account description used when sales trader is either A) Too lazy to investigate further. B) Setting up fantasy football roster for upcoming week and is too lazy to investigate further… or C) Never heard of account before and is too lazy to investigate further.
Wake Up – “You want me to wake you up somewhere?”… This way I can totally fail notice when it gets there and embarrass myself yet again.
We’re big boys, we can take it – Son of a bitch! That stung like a mother f**ker.
Work to Improve – Term is normally used in a derogatory tone in a useless attempt to help improve the less than impressive job you’ve done so far.
-Dopey
http://thedopeycowboy.com/2009/10/29/trading-terms-and-phrases/
Posted via email from Big Picture's posterous
Posted at 09:44 AM | Permalink
New vs Existing Home Sales
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/new-and-existing-home-sales-distressing.html
Posted via email from Big Picture's posterous
Posted at 07:06 AM | Permalink
Thursday, October 29, 2009
***EMBARGOED TESTIMONY***JEC HEARING:
As a reminder this morning,
Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney will convene a hearing of the Joint Economic Committee entitled, “The Impact of the Recovery Act on Economic Growth,” at 10 a.m. in room 2237 in the Rayburn House Office Building. The hearing will also be webcast live [link]. Below you will find the text of Chair Maloney’s opening statement, and attached you will find the testimony of our witnesses. All Documents are embargoed until delivery at 10 a.m. Please do not break this embargo. If you have any questions regarding the hearing, would like additional information on visuals used today, or have any other questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Happy watching,
Aaron
Statement of Carolyn Maloney
Joint Economic Committee Hearing
October 29, 2009
-As Prepared For Delivery-
Today’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 3rd quarter gross domestic product (GDP) provides welcome evidence that the economy is moving from recession to recovery.
When the President took office in January, our economy was on the brink of an economic disaster.
There was no end in sight to the recession that started in December 2007.
The idea that the economy would achieve positive growth so soon would have surprised many.
Today, it is clear that the economy is moving in the right direction.
GDP rose by 3.5 percent in the third quarter, after having fallen for an unprecedented four straight quarters.
This is concrete evidence of the wisdom of the Recovery Act and the positive effect it has had on the economy in just eight short months.
Last week, Dr. Christina Romer, the President’s Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, presented us with compelling evidence that the economy is rebounding largely because of the Recovery Act.
Indeed, she testified that the Recovery Act added between three and four percentage points to economic growth in the third quarter, far beyond what the opponents of the Recovery Act thought possible.
Another piece of welcome news is that personal consumption grew by 3.4 percent in the third quarter, largely due to actions taken by Congress and the Administration.
We are finally seeing signs that consumers are spending more, which could spur businesses to hire more workers to meet renewed demand for their goods and services.
Moreover, I expect that legislation that I worked tirelessly on to end the most abusive practices of credit card companies, the Credit Card Holders’ Bill of Rights, which Congress passed on an overwhelmingly bipartisan basis, will help increase consumers’ demand for credit and encourage creditworthy borrowers to spend.
The Financial Services Committee recently passed a bill I also introduced to speed up the implementation, so that these measures would go into effect on December 1st.
Despite significant legislative accomplishments that brought us from economic abyss, I believe we still have a long way to go before the economy fully recovers.
The most pressing economic issue for the nation is job creation.
The stimulus has helped Americans in need weather the storm, but we must do more to get people back to work.
I look forward to the ideas that our distinguished witnesses have about translating our economic growth into job growth, and their suggestions about any additional measures Congress can take to spur businesses to create more jobs.
One group that I’m particularly concerned about is the long-term unemployed.
The longer someone stays unemployed, the harder it is for them to find work.
The long-term unemployed are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
First, they are suffering now, which is why the House has already passed legislation expanding unemployment insurance.
I am optimistic that the Senate will pass this soon.
Second, the long-term jobless – those who have been unemployed for six months or more – may suffer in the future.
Even when the economy recovers, workers who have been unemployed for a long time may no longer have the skills necessary to be competitive in the workforce.
We must come up with creative ways of helping the long-term unemployed maintain their skills or develop new skills so that once we get back on track and start creating jobs, they will not be left behind.
I thank our distinguished panel of witnesses for their testimony, and I look forward to hearing their thoughts on the most important issues we face – sustaining our economic progress and creating jobs for the American people.
# # #
The name of the blog the Big Picture
Here's what others have had to say about it:
Posted via email from Big Picture's posterous
Posted at 11:47 PM | Permalink
Guys Rules
Finally , the guys' side of the story.
We always hear " the rules " from the female side.
Now here are the rules from the male side.
These are our rules!
Please note: These are all numbered "1"
ON PURPOSE!
1. Men are NOT mind readers.
1. Learn to work the toilet seat.
You're a big girl. If it's up, put it down.
We need it up, you need it down.
You don't hear us complaining about you leaving it down.
1. Sunday sports It's like the full moon
or the changing of the tides.
Let it be.
1. Shopping is NOT a sport.
And no, we are never going to think of it that way.
1. Crying is blackmail.
1. Ask for what you want.
Let us be clear on this one:
Subtle hints do not work!
Strong hints do not work!
Obvious hints do not work!
Just say it!
1. Yes and No are perfectly acceptable answers to almost every question.
1. Come to us with a problem only if you want help solving it. That's what we do.
Sympathy is what your girlfriends are for.
1. A headache that lasts for 17 months is a Problem.
See a doctor.
1. Anything we said 6 months ago is inadmissible in an argument.
In fact, all comments become null and void after 7 Days.
1. If you won't dress like the Victoria 's Secret girls, don't Expect us to act like soap opera guys.
1. If you think you're fat, you probably are.
Don't ask us.
1. If something we said can be interpreted two ways and one of the ways makes you sad or angry, we meant the other one
1. You can either ask us to do something
Or tell us how you want it done.
Not both.
If you already know best how to do it, just do it yourself.
1. Whenever possible, Please say whatever you have to say during commercials.
1. Christopher Columbus did NOT need directions and neither do we.
1. ALL men see in only 16 colors, like Windows default settings.
Peach, for example, is a fruit, not A color. Pumpkin is also a fruit. We have no idea what mauve is.
1. If it itches, it will be scratched.
We do that.
1. If we ask what is wrong and you say "nothing," We will act like nothing's wrong.
We know you are lying, but it is just not worth the hassle.
1. If you ask a question you don't want an answer to, Expect an answer you don't want to hear.
1. When we have to go somewhere, absolutely anything you wear is fine... Really .
1. Don't ask us what we're thinking about unless you are prepared to discuss such topics as baseball, the shotgun formation,
or golf.
1. You have enough clothes.
1. You have too many shoes.
1. I am in shape. Round IS a shape!
1. Thank you for reading this.
Yes, I know, I have to sleep on the couch tonight;
But did you know men really don't mind that? It's like camping.
Pass this to as many men as you can -
to give them a laugh.
Pass this to as many women as you can -
to give them a bigger laugh.
=
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Posted at 01:18 PM | Permalink
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Dogs in costumes
Ferrari California
4297cc Ferrari V8.
Good looking convertible has a modern Maserti shape to it
available in eright hand drive
I prefer the double vs single tail light -- the stacked exhaustr is kinda cool:
Vrroom! 460bhp
Profile
not sure how much I love the front view
or the rear:
Channeling MB SLK"
Tail
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Posted at 07:24 PM | Permalink
U.S. Continues Quagmire-Building Effort In Afghanistan
U.S. Continues Quagmire-Building Effort In Afghanistan
Hill by hill, U.S. forces tirelessly work toward the strategic goal of complete immobility.
KABUL, AFGHANISTAN— According to sources at the Pentagon, American quagmire-building efforts continued apace in Afghanistan this week, as the geographically rugged, politically unstable region remained ungovernable, death tolls continued to rise, and the grim military campaign persisted as hopelessly as ever.
In fact, many government officials now believe that the United States and its allies could be as little as six months away from their ultimate goal: the total quagmirification of Afghanistan.
"We've spent a lot of time and money fostering the turmoil and despair necessary to make this a sustaining quagmire, and we're not going to stop now," President Barack Obama said in a national address Monday night. "It won't be easy, but with enough tactical errors on the ground, shortsighted political strategies, and continued ignorance of our vast cultural differences, we could have a horrific, full-fledged quagmire by 2012."
Added Obama, "Together, we can make Afghanistan into a nightmarish hell-scape Americans will regret for generations to come."
The U.S. plan to build a lasting quagmire in Afghanistan calls for the loss of at least 5,000 coalition troops, nearly 1,500 of whom have already been killed, and a wasted investment of nearly $1 trillion, a quarter of which has thus far been spent.
With more than 80 percent of the country currently under Taliban control, Defense Secretary Robert Gates argued that U.S. nation-dismantling efforts are actually proceeding ahead of schedule.
"We've made a complete mess of local institutions, and moving forward this substantial lack of infrastructure will be the cornerstone of our strategy to ensure long-term chaos in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region," said Gates, gesturing to a complex, 6-foot-tall wall map of what were either newly established al-Qaeda bases in Waziristan, tribal trade routes over the Hindu Kush, or perhaps U.S. military outposts of some kind. "I couldn't be happier with our progress. This place is a complete clusterfuck."
A number of Pentagon officials said they were proudly holding on to their false glimmer of hope for a victory that remains forever out of reach, and explained that waging a war that can only end in sorrow has validated all their efforts.
The U.S. effort in Afghanistan hasn't always looked so bleak. In 2004, when Afghanistan ratified a new constitution and directly elected a leader for the first time in its history, a number of government officials feared the quagmire would fail and perhaps even lead to relative peace and security. But American military and diplomatic initiatives to prop up the corrupt regime of Hamid Karzai paved the way for this year's utterly fraudulent presidential election, an event which gave the quagmire-building effort a much needed shot in the arm.
"Some say the war in Afghanistan is already a quagmire, being as it's gone on for eight years and the situation on the ground continues to rapidly deteriorate," said Gen. Stanley McChrystal. "But I know we can do better. There are still dozens of tribal allies to alienate, troop morale could sink even lower, to the point of mutiny, and by continuing to fire a bunch of missiles from unmanned predator drones we have the opportunity to scare the living shit out of every last civilian in the region."
Continued McChrystal, "If we play our cards right, the word 'Afghanistan' could soon replace the word 'Iraq' as the agreed-upon successor to the word 'Vietnam' in the American political lexicon."
The loose network of warlords who rule the Afghan countryside were also optimistic about quagmire-building efforts.
"Our nation is already impossibly fragmented, but I believe the United States has the ability to make things even worse here," said a local tribal leader, who asked to speak anonymously due to his constantly shifting alliances with the two sides. "Afghanistan has a proud, ancient tradition of quagmires: Soviet Russia, the British Empire, Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan. These are big shoes to fill, but if anyone can do it, these foolish Americans can."
With President Karzai's government maintaining ties to known drug traffickers, and 68,000 U.S. soldiers struggling to police a harsh, challenging landscape, all the conditions for a multigenerational quagmire seem to be in place.
For many analysts, the question now is: How will Obama ensure the U.S. entanglement in the region remains permanent? By deploying more troops, by withdrawing them and leaving behind an unspeakable disaster, by increasing sympathy for the Taliban in nuclear-armed Pakistan? There are so many options on the table that many feel a quagmire is virtually guaranteed.
"We have so much to thank the Americans for," said Marshal Muhammad Qasim Fahim, a notorious warlord who will become vice president if Karzai wins a runoff election scheduled for Nov. 7. "Not only have they created a lawless environment that has allowed us to capture 90 percent of the opium market, but their heroin habits have made a few of us very rich."
"I love the Americans and I hope they stay for many years," he added. "Many, many, many, many years."
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Posted at 07:06 PM | Permalink
Realty Alliance Discussion
Realty Alliance Discussion
Good News/Bad News
Good news: AMERICANS LOVE REAL ESTATE We live in it, we like to talk about, fix it up, watch it on TV We really like our Housing
I am son of real estate agent, I own 2 homes in NYS, I enjoy Real Estate.
1929 Crash (80th anniversary) breakeven until 1954
Diff between RE/Stocks: Outside of Love Canal and Detroit, RE goto 0
6th inning You know when its in the Onion, EVERYONE is aware: Thousands Of Abandoned, Foreclosed Homes Threatened By Florida Hurricane
Bad news: We are addicted to the easy fix. Zero Interest rates, FHA No money down,
Just as You cannot Drink yourself sober, you can not "easy credit your way back to a healthy real estate market!
If you want to sell some homes, if you want to see a healthy real estate market, you need to get real.
1) ABDICATION OF LENDING STANDARDS
1 Million BC to 2009 ß 2002-2007 à
Borrowers ability to repay Lenders ability to sell to Securitizers
a) Liar loans, No doc NINJA
-Grape picker in California making $14 k $750,000 Mortgage
b) 90 day warranty
c) Securitized Loans Are 5X More Likely to Be Delinquent
d) All of the Securitizers are gone.
5 big wall street inv houses are gone/350 lenders bankrupt
2) FORECLOSURES: 6 states account for 62% of US total foreclosures: California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada have the greatest foreclosure activity. Add in Illinois and Michigan.
300,000 per month, 3 million per year
GOOD THING
In the West, home sales under $100k are up 116% in the past year
ARMS RACE Strategic Defaults (walk away) / Strategic Non-Foreclosure
Delinquencies are rising, but foreclosure starts are not
3) EHS Prices: In September 2009, single family home sale prices look like this:
21% less than $100k
49% $100K to $250k
22% $250 to $500K
5.6% $500k to $750K
1.3% $750k to $1m
1.3% $1M and up
Less than 10% of the homes sold in the US were > $500k. (8.2% of sales).
September, 70% of transacted homes were priced under $250,000.
Homes under $100k are up 22.5%
(Sales: Fell NSA 5.4% (vs 17% avg, and 10% reported)
4) Home prices are still too high!
I use 3 metrics:
Median income/median price
RE Capitalization as a % of GDP
Cost of renting vs owning
All 3 are appreciably off their highs but they still have 10-15%
(assuming we just mean revert)
Falling not necessary -- Sideways for 5-7 years gets you there
5) Tax Credit $8,000 subsidy actually costs $43,000 per extra house sold;
$15,000 Home Buyers Credit Costs $292,000/home
KEY TAKEAWAY:
1) The hottest markets are where foreclosures have driven prices down 50% or greater;
2) Inventory remains significantly elevated its closer to 10 months than historic averages of 5-6 months;
3) Mortgage rates are at unusually low levels despite this, sales remain generally soft;
4) Prices remain elevated by historic norms;
5) Big increase on the low end Starter homes and Condos are moving units; The middle and larger (jumbo mortgages) are a vast wasteland;
6) Lots of "shadow" inventory is waiting to come on the market once prices improve; These were specs, vacation property, etc that got caught when the market collapsed they are renting them out or they are vacant.
Palm Beach Post, Monday, March 05, 2007 "Some Realtors are grumbling about prices not falling. Guess who they're blaming? Here's what Thomas Lawler, former Fannie Mae economist and current president of Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting in Vienna, Va., has to say in his private newsletter:
"A growing number of Realtors in Florida are frustrated with the state and national Realtors groups' efforts to 'spin' the market as one that is strengthening and where home prices are stabilizing.
"Many (though probably not yet most) Realtors are frustrated by customers who continue to list their homes at price levels that are 'unrealistic,' and as a result, sales volumes and thus commissions continue to remain depressed. "While Realtors have noted to customers that many home builders in Florida have slashed new-home prices in order to move bloated inventories, many home sellers are still holding off, hoping along with FAR and NAR that prices will start moving back up soon."
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Posted at 02:25 PM | Permalink
Monday, October 26, 2009
Mass Migration of Stingrays
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Posted at 10:33 PM | Permalink
9.12 DC TEA PARTY - MARCH FOOTAGE WITH INTERVIEWS
Brilliant!
On 9.12.2009, we went to Washington DC to document the Tea Party protests against, well, a lot of things, including health insurance reform, the IRS, abortion, global warming, and our "socialist/communist/fascist/Nazi/Muslim " president, Barack Obama. Some of them called for a return to McCarthyism, while others called for Glenn Beck to run for office--indeed, it seemed the only thing that everyone agreed on was Fox News.VIEW OUR INTERVIEW B-ROLL HERE:
This NEW LEFT MEDIA film was produced and edited by Chase Whiteside (interviewer) and Erick Stoll (camera operator).A NOTE ON CZARS:
Some users have pointed out that White House "Czars" existed long before Ronald Reagan. As it turns out, Donald Nelson, appointed under FDR as a "Wartime Production Czar", was the first. The Republican Gov. of Colorado, John A. Love, was later appointed under Nixon as an "Energy Czar". We appreciate this correction, though such an oversight does not dilute our point. The current outcry against Czars is merely alarmist propaganda perpetuated by Glenn Beck and the rest of the right-wing media.
This NEW LEFT MEDIA film was produced and edited by Chase Whiteside (interviewer) and Erick Stoll (camera operator).A NOTE ON CZARS:
Some users have pointed out that White House "Czars" existed long before Ronald Reagan. As it turns out, Donald Nelson, appointed under FDR as a "Wartime Production Czar", was the first. The Republican Gov. of Colorado, John A. Love, was later appointed under Nixon as an "Energy Czar". We appreciate this correction, though such an oversight does not dilute our point. The current outcry against Czars is merely alarmist propaganda perpetuated by Glenn Beck and the rest of the right-wing media.
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Posted at 08:23 PM | Permalink
