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Presidential Election Indicators

Thursday, June 24, 2004 | 01:58 PM

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We spend a lot of time discussing various market indicators, and how to balance some against others when they are in apparent conflict.

So when I came across Dan Froomkin's take of USA Today six 'reliable' presidential-election indicators, I simply had to reproduce them:

• Economic formula suggest Bush wins;
• Low approval-rating precedent says Kerry wins;
• War-president precedent says Bush wins;
• Ohio is a bellwether: Tossup;
• Northern Democrats don't stand a chance. Bush wins;
• Kerry is taller; Kerry wins

The fact that these disagree with each other makes them all the more amusing . . .

Sources:
Election-predicting tools point both ways

Depending on which criteria you use, either Bush or Kerry is a lock to win in November
Susan Page
USA TODAY, June 24, 2004
http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040624/6314204s.htm

White House Briefing
Dan Froomkin
Washington Post, Thursday, Jun 24, 2004; 11:50 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/politics/administration/whbriefing/

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» The Presidential Indicator says . . . from BOPnews
It was one of those odd coincidences: I came across so many separate Presidential indicators today that I decided to gather them all in one place. The most comprehensive grouping was in USA Today, which discusses six 'reliable' presidential-election in... [Read More]

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Tracked on Jun 24, 2004 5:39:14 PM

» The Presidential Indicator says . . . from BOPnews
It was one of those odd coincidences: I came across so many separate "Presidential election indicators" today that I decided to gather them all in one place for our blogging pleasure. The most comprehensive grouping was in USA Today, which... [Read More]

Tracked on Jun 24, 2004 7:49:43 PM

Tracked on Jun 24, 2004 9:43:37 PM

» The Presidential Indicator says . . . from BOPnews
It was one of those odd coincidences: I came across so many separate "Presidential election indicators" today that I decided to gather them all in one place for your blogging pleasure. The most comprehensive grouping was in USA Today, which... [Read More]

Tracked on Jun 24, 2004 10:27:07 PM

» Fun with Indicators from PoliBlog
Barry Ritholtz has a list of numerous presidential election indicators over at the Big Picture. The outcome is mixed.... [Read More]

Tracked on Jun 26, 2004 11:54:28 AM