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Presidential Polling Data Resources

While the polls bounce around, I've discovered a few sites with permanent links to consistently informative data. These pages have distinguished themselves:

1) electoral vote.com:

Simply a graphic depiction of these here United States, with polling data broken down by states and their electoral votes. See this chart as an example:

Click for larger graphic

graphic courtesy of electoral vote.com

The Electoral Vote Predictor right now shows Kerry at 280, and Bush at 258. These numbers fluctuate quite frequently as Florida and Ohio vacillates between "Barely Kerry" and "Barely Bush."

2) Professor Pollkatz

The good prof has a terrific, meticulous scatter chart of ALL the polling data; Its never the single data point, and always the trend that matters most.

Here's a recent example:

Click for larger graphic

graphic courtesy of pollkatz

See also the Professor's analysis of which pollsters have the greatest "Fudge Factors"

3) Polling Report: bills itself as "an independent, nonpartisan resource on trends in American public opinion." I think thats a good description. There's a wealth of data here that is simply very accessable and quite usable.

Click for larger graphic

graphic courtesy of Polling Report

Be sure to check out their National Barometer Trend Lines also.

4) Real Clear Politics

How could I forget RCP? Their list of all the polls out there provides a numerical snapshot (compared with Pollkatz's graphical view) of the race. Terrific resource.

Click for larger graphic

Graphic courtesy of Real Clear Politics

There are only two mainstream media sites included here: The Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal.

5) The Washington Post has a permanent link that tracks a variety of issues, as well as providing detailed data of their methodology.

Click for larger graphic

Graphic courtesy of The Washington Post

See also this link for their recent graph.

6) The WSJ gets included, despite having a not quite permanent link. They offer terrific perspectives and charts on the Battleground Swing States:

Click for larger graphic

Graphic courtesy of WSJ

There’s some more commentary on the post convention Journal report here.

Sources:
electoral vote.com
http://electoral-vote.com/

Professor Pollkatz
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/

Polling Report
http://www.pollingreport.com/

Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

WSJ: Battlegrounds States Poll - August 2, 2004
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-1006print.html

Friday, August 06, 2004 | 06:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (6)
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You may also be interested in this: I've posted my latest survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection sites here.

Executive summary: of the 28 sites surveyed, 21 show Kerry winning, and 4 others show him ahead. Three sites show Bush winning. The approximate average of all sites is Kerry 296 - Bush 242.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) | Aug 7, 2004 9:15:20 PM