Chart of the Week: Gasoline $ versus Incumbent Approval Ratings

Friday, October 15, 2004 | 11:55 AM

For those of you who would like a simple thesis for predicting the outcome of the election - one that is both highly correlated and has a strong causative element - we suggest the chart below, courtesy of DePaul University economics Professor Stuart Eugene Thiel. The professor plotted the weekly US gasoline prices (inverted) versus a Presidential Index. As the chart reveals, gasoline prices are coincident indicators to the incumbent’s approval rating.

Gasoline $ versus Incumbent Approval Ratings
click for larger chart

We are a nation of drivers. “Pump pain” erodes consumer’s confidence, reduces discretionary spending, and crimps family budgets. As a predictive factor in the Presidential election, the higher gasoline prices are, the greater the negative impact it is likely to have for the incumbent.

Random Items:
A 100-year bear market?
The Long Tail
After Iraq, Iran?
Target Iran - Air Strikes
Why Bush and Kerry are Wrong on Health Care
Seymour Hersh spills his guts
Presidential Polling Data Resources

Quote of the Day:
“With enough inside information and a million dollars, you can go broke in a year.
-Warren Buffett.

Friday, October 15, 2004 | 11:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1) add to | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post



TrackBack URL for this entry:

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Chart of the Week: Gasoline $ versus Incumbent Approval Ratings:

» Causation & Correlation: Gasoline vs. Incumbency from BOPnews
With the debates now behind us, voters (and investors) can expect to hear a spate of “suspect” theories from political analysts assessing each candidate’s chances for electoral victory. Most of these will be rife with illogical, poorly reasoned, partis... [Read More]

Tracked on Oct 15, 2004 12:21:46 PM


Does not matter what approval rate Bush has...I am sure that Americans will still vote for him..

Posted by: Troy | May 18, 2006 2:19:38 PM

The comments to this entry are closed.

Recent Posts

December 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31      


Complete Archives List



Category Cloud

On the Nightstand

On the Nightstand

 Subscribe in a reader

Get The Big Picture!
Enter your email address:

Read our privacy policy

Essays & Effluvia

The Apprenticed Investor

Apprenticed Investor

About Me

About Me
email me

Favorite Posts

Tools and Feeds

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Add to Google Reader or Homepage

Subscribe to The Big Picture

Powered by FeedBurner

Add to Technorati Favorites


My Wishlist

Worth Perusing

Worth Perusing

mp3s Spinning

MP3s Spinning

My Photo



Odds & Ends

Site by Moxie Design Studios™