Back from California

Sunday, February 27, 2005 | 10:04 AM

Back from a week in La Jolla! How on Earth do you people out in California ever get any work done?

I read one of the best Market related books I have ever come across, and will post a review later this week. Oh, and it was originally published in 1924. 

I'll also post some photos at essays & effluvia later, and have some fresh content shortly . . .

Sunday, February 27, 2005 | 10:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
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I have a copy of Fortune mag from late Aug-early Sept 98 with the (paraphrased) headline: "How to Prepare for the Coming Recession."

The SPX had just fallen the magic 20% (bear market signal) in the prior 5 weeks (LTCM collapse). The minute the issue hit the stands, the SPX rallied 10%, then fell to a marginal new low in early Oct prior to its blowoff 16-month rally.

Fortune was ultimately right, if a bit early. Anyone shorting the SPX after receiving the issue would have suffered a 60+% drawdown over the next 18 months. They would finally have broken even by 9/11/01, though they only had a day or two to cover before the market took off again.

The short position would finally begin making money in July '02 (for about two weeks), then again in Oct 02 (for another two weeks). Tough to make a living being right sometimes.

As an aside, I also have the Fortune cover from this past August which addressed the bursting of the housing bubble. They hedged a bit saying that it could run until Spring '05. If past is prologue, look for the housing bubble to re-inflate in a blowoff before taking on water sometime in '06-'07.

Posted by: copernicus | Feb 28, 2005 1:53:18 PM

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