Spring Forward, or Fall Back?

Monday, March 21, 2005 | 01:01 PM

Each December, we pen our market expectation for the upcoming mid-year and year-end. Every quarter, we like to revisit those views, looking at which of our assumptions have proven to be either true or false. With the winter of our discontent now over, let’s have a look at how our key underlying assumptions - on Social Security Reform Employment and Interest Rates - have played out:

Social Security Reform looked to have a solid chance of passing post-election. Regardless of your views on the private account plans, the prospect of 100s of billions of dollars in fund flow would have goosed the markets - at least temporarily. Our mid-year Nasdaq target of 2620 and Dow 11,707 was in large part premised on some form of legislation getting passed. There’s no other way to put this: The White House has dropped the ball, failing to get any mileage even out of the surprisingly good Iraq elections. What looked like a better than even chance of passage has slid to less than a 1-in-5 possibility. From our vantage point, Social Security Reform now appears to be dead.

Employment surprised to the upside last month, but even that positive number leaves us far below where we had hoped to be at this point of the economic cycle. Wages remain soft, and job creation is overly-reliant on Uncle Sam. As to the low unemployment rate, exhaustees and labor force drop-outs make the unemployment rate appear much better than it actually is. It is worse than even our pessimistic assumptions. A string of good Payroll numbers (3 in a row) will allow us to revise this indicator upwards.

Interest Rates have ticked backed to where they were in the first week of 2005. Fears of appreciably higher rates are certainly weighing on the markets. The risk we have outlined (repeatedly) is the dampening effect on the housing complex - which remains the most robust sector of the economy. With a 7th tightening expected tomorrow, the Fed will soon be slowing down the real-estate dependent U.S. economy by nearly as much as energy prices.

Given that our views on Social Security Reform and the Employment outlook have proven to be overly optimistic, we are throttling back our mid-year expectations. Our prior targets of DJIA 11,707, S&P 500 1,324 and Nasdaq 2,620 are each reduced accordingly: New DJIA midyear target is 11,215, SPX 1,255 and Nasdaq 2,470.

As we again stated last week, as risk increases, it is a prudent course of action to reduce margin exposure and where appropriate, marry puts to long positions.

Monday, March 21, 2005 | 01:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
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Interesting comments. Are you still anticipating a poor second half for the year with a drop in the indexes?

Posted by: JWC | Mar 21, 2005 1:50:10 PM

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