Weather Map Theory Of Global Investing
All investors create a intellectual construct of how and why the markets do what they do. (They may not be aware of it, but they do). Mine is loosely based on Chaos Theory, which combines elements of random, non-linear dynamic behavior with Trend. That's why sentiment and market internals are so important to my construct.
Doc John Rutledge has a different approach, combining a Weather Map and Thermodynamics. Its an interesting construct, and philosophically, it works for me:
I also like the weather map metaphor because it reminds me of two important facts. First, extraordinary investments, like weather systems, are transitory phenomena. Even the best investments don't generate excepitonal returns forever.
Second, investing, like meteorology and thermodynamics, is not an exact science. It can help you to identify the storm systems that are going to make things happen. And it can tell you what things will look like when the storm has passed and thermal equilibrium has been once again restored. But it tells you very little about what happens in between.
His blog is worth checking out.
Source:
RutledgeCapital
WEATHER MAP THEORY OF GLOBAL INVESTING
http://rutledgecapital.com/storm_watch.html
http://www.rutledgeblog.com/
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Wednesday, May 11, 2005 | 11:00 AM | Permalink
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"Second, investing, like meteorology and thermodynamics, is not an exact science. "
Thank you for that bit of wisdom...and I've been thinking all these years that Thermodynamics was in fact a well established discipline in Classical Physics...
rt
Posted by: rich | May 11, 2005 11:33:35 AM
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