Regional Surveys, LEI show Growth Slowing

Thursday, May 19, 2005 | 08:04 PM

Michael Panzner draws our attention to the Fed's Regional surveys -- which have been showing signs of ongoing weakness.

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Gdp3surveys

Panzner observes:

"This week two out of three regional surveys of economic activity flashed early warning signs that U.S. economic growth may be poised to slow.

On Monday, the Empire (New York) Federal Reserve Survey declined sharply, coming in at a much lower-than-expected -11.1. Today, the Philadelphia Fed Factory Index also fell, again surprising the market with a near two-year low  reading of 7.3.

A quick read of the relationship between year-on-year growth in U.S. Gross Domestic Product and those two surveys (plus the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, due out on May 31) suggests these regional surveys may be worth paying especially close attention to."

Thursday, May 19, 2005 | 08:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

barry, i knocked your 10% down, 30% up, year forecast when you first posted it. let me emphatically state a first half "mae culpa". good news for the rest of the year, and your forecast - i still think sir alan will KILL the cyclicals.

Posted by: james | May 19, 2005 8:54:30 PM

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