New Column up at Real Money: Rethinking the 'Strong Jobs Recovery' Scenario (12/21/05)

Wednesday, December 21, 2005 | 12:18 PM

RealMoneyAn expanded version of an earlier commentary is up on both The (no subscription req'd) and Real Money, titled Rethinking the 'Strong Jobs Recovery' Scenario.

You will no doubt recognize many of these points discussed previously.

Here's an excerpt:

"Job creation is crucial to any economic expansion. It directly affects consumer spending, and it's one of two key factors determining the health of real estate (the other being interest rates). One cannot overstate the importance of job creation to the economy.

Lately, the White House and Treasury Secretary John Snow have been trumpeting the fact that the economy has created 4.4 million new jobs since May 2003.

Inquiring minds want to know: How legit is that number? How was it derived? How does this job-creation data compare to prior cyclical recoveries?

Let's zoom in on the actual employment numbers and see what's there."

Lots of contrary stuff here . . .


UPDATE:  December 23, 2005 10:48am

David Altig correctly alerts me to an error in the column:  According to the NBER, the most recent economic peak occurred in March 2001, ending a record-long expansion that began in 1991. The most recent trough occurred in November 2001. (I regret the confusion).

This changes some of the math: From the beginning of the recession to last month, about 1.8 million jobs were created. Measured from the end of the recession, we see 3.4million new jobs. Measured from March 2003, we see the 4.4 million new jobs. None of these measures take into account the 2.6 million jobs lost from 2001 to 2003.


Rethinking the 'Strong Jobs Recovery' Scenario, 12/21/2005 7:09 AM EST

Wednesday, December 21, 2005 | 12:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (1) add to | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post



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» Dr. Kurt Richebächer Has It Right! from Mover Mike
On Dec. 10th. I wrote about the The Mess That Greenspan Made. Dr. Kurt Richebächer called attention to the fact that employment in this economic recovery was not nearly as robust as previo... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 22, 2005 1:53:48 AM


This piece is not as strong as your excellent criticism of the government's crazy calculation of the CPI. To wit, the current unemployment rate of 5 percent is lower than the average for the 1990s (5.7 percent). Our economy has lots of potential problems, but the current state of the job market isn't the chief among them.

Posted by: Algernon | Dec 21, 2005 5:27:04 PM

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