NFP: Final thoughts

Friday, March 10, 2006 | 10:51 AM

Some highlights from the details of this NFP report:

The average work week surprsingly fell -0.1 to 33.7 hours -- that hardly indicates a tight labor market; Also noteworthy: overtime ticked up, revealing a (let's call it) "reluctance" to hire.   

The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 66.1%, despite the civilian labor force growing by 335,000 people. Joanie notes that "the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.8%, as we are not creating enough jobs to absorb new/re-entrants into the labor force" (Otherwise, unemployment would have been flat m/m).

The jobs primarily came from Construction, Mining and service-providing industries: Retail Employment was flat, Food and Drinking scored +23k. Construction added 41k (sub-contractors were 32k of that), Mining added 5k, primarily support activity for oil and gas. Education and Health services added 47k.

Bottom line, a fair report. Not terrible, but not great.

>

UPDATE March 10, 2006 11:30am

Tony Crescenzi observes that Fed Futures is pricing in:

100% odds that the funds rate will be raised to 4.75% at the March 27-28 FOMC meeting, and a 95% odds that it will be raised to 5.0% at the May 10 meeting. For the June 29 FOMC meeting, the market is priced for a 24% odds of a hike to 5.25%, up from 10% Thursday and 0% a week ago.

Friday, March 10, 2006 | 10:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
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Off topic but I learned a new word today: jingoism. Funny how history repeats itself.

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/japan/zeiler.htm

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/japan/schaller.htm

Replace Japan with China and the cycle is clearly repeated. It's not just the US either. Mittal and Arcelor where 80%+ of the French do not support the merger. High inflation, blue collar malaise, cheap foreign labor, exchange rates, post 18 year equity expansion, transition from low interest rates and inflation rates to commodity driven rates, equity investments transferred to housing boom, high oil, war, blah blah blah.

Next comes wage inflation and more "jingoism". The markets are going to love this big pile of dog doo. Hey, look at the bright side. When everyone loses their job because 5 million people are employed by foreign companies in the US and the average pay is nearly double that of American companies, you can always open a web site like this to earn your living.

http://www.dogdoo.com/Default.asp

Posted by: B | Mar 10, 2006 11:47:49 AM

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