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Real Estate Round Up

This past week saw a lot of Real Estate related data, all of which fits our long term thesis about the macro economy and what's to come over the next few years.

For those of you who may be newer to the site, we have been dicussing this for quite a while: starting in December 2004, we noted how Real Estate was a prime driver of the economy, and in Spring 2005, how new hiring was overly reliant on the Real Estate Sector; in August 2005, we called that Housing was beginning to show signs of cooling, and that this would eventually wreak havoc on consumer spending. In the Fall 2005, we noted how dependent GDP had become on Mortgage Equity extraction. You can find all of these by using the site search function, right sidebar.

Now as  of March 2006, most of these concepts have become widely recognized and (mostly) accepted -- but when they were first introduced here, there was no small amount of incredulity and pushback surrounding them.

Looking forward, I see rates rising, housing cooling further, the consumer cutting back, and the stimulus driven economy slowing, if not slipping into an outright recession.

On to the round up:

• Existing Home Sales Slip 5th Consec Month 

• Home Foreclosure Surge   

• Home Prices Decellerate   

• Supply Up, New Homes Sales Down

• New Homes Sales: 4th Drop in 6 months

• And the most ironic piece of all, The WSJ's Greg Ip Discovers Data Manipulation      

There's more all over the web if you want to surf, but that's the main gist of it.

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UPDATE March 5, 2006 4:44pm

The NYT's Sunday Magazine is all about Real Estate

Go to Introduction: The For-Sale Society

See the Sunday Times Mag TOC after the jump . . .

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Home Sweet Debt By WALTER KIRN Does taking on greater financial risk to own a house prevent you from bonding with it? QUESTIONS FOR BRUCE KATZ Battle for the 'Burbs Interview by DEBORAH SOLOMON The metropolitan-policy expert talks about the decay of older suburbs, the merits of long commute times and why the suburbs might endanger democracy. FREAKONOMICS Endangered Species By STEPHEN J. DUBNER and STEVEN D. LEVITT Why the boom wasn't more lucrative for real-estate agents — and why they may now be heading for extinction. PHENOMENON Fixing a Hole By STEPHEN METCALF For upwardly mobile young couples, restoring an old home is a rite of passage. And, as their blogs often show us, a nightmare. • The Walk-Through: A Times Blog on Real Estate CONSUMED Big Gulp By ROB WALKER Long before Martha Stewart, Edward Bok peddled a vision of the proper middle-class home. The Ethicist By RANDY COHEN • Forum: You're the Ethicist

Nicolai Ourousoff on preserving Moscow's modernist architecture. Audio Slide Show | Article  PHOTOGRAPHY CONTEST In the Shadow of the No. 7 Line, by Jeff Chien-Hsing Liao Slide Show | About the Photographs • The Runners-Up

Saturday, March 04, 2006 | 09:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

I have to say I agree. If the Fed continues to 5.00%, much less 5.50% as Lehman predicts, this economy is going to fall off a cliff.

Posted by: Lyon | Mar 4, 2006 12:22:25 PM