Real Estate Round Up

Saturday, March 04, 2006 | 09:46 AM

This past week saw a lot of Real Estate related data, all of which fits our long term thesis about the macro economy and what's to come over the next few years.

For those of you who may be newer to the site, we have been dicussing this for quite a while: starting in December 2004, we noted how Real Estate was a prime driver of the economy, and in Spring 2005, how new hiring was overly reliant on the Real Estate Sector; in August 2005, we called that Housing was beginning to show signs of cooling, and that this would eventually wreak havoc on consumer spending. In the Fall 2005, we noted how dependent GDP had become on Mortgage Equity extraction. You can find all of these by using the site search function, right sidebar.

Now as  of March 2006, most of these concepts have become widely recognized and (mostly) accepted -- but when they were first introduced here, there was no small amount of incredulity and pushback surrounding them.

Looking forward, I see rates rising, housing cooling further, the consumer cutting back, and the stimulus driven economy slowing, if not slipping into an outright recession.

On to the round up:

Existing Home Sales Slip 5th Consec Month 

Home Foreclosure Surge   

Home Prices Decellerate   

Supply Up, New Homes Sales Down

New Homes Sales: 4th Drop in 6 months

• And the most ironic piece of all, The WSJ's Greg Ip Discovers Data Manipulation      

There's more all over the web if you want to surf, but that's the main gist of it.


>

UPDATE March 5, 2006 4:44pm

The NYT's Sunday Magazine is all about Real Estate

Go to Introduction: The For-Sale Society


 

See the Sunday Times Mag TOC after the jump . . .

>

MAGAZINE

TOOLBAR

The Way We Live Now
   Home Sweet Debt
By WALTER KIRN
Does taking on greater financial risk to own a house prevent you from bonding with it?

QUESTIONS FOR BRUCE KATZ
Battle for the 'Burbs
Interview by DEBORAH SOLOMON
The metropolitan-policy expert talks about the decay of older suburbs, the merits of long commute times and why the suburbs might endanger democracy.

FREAKONOMICS
Endangered Species
By STEPHEN J. DUBNER and STEVEN D. LEVITT
Why the boom wasn't more lucrative for real-estate agents — and why they may now be heading for extinction.

PHENOMENON
Fixing a Hole
By STEPHEN METCALF
For upwardly mobile young couples, restoring an old home is a rite of passage. And, as their blogs often show us, a nightmare.
The Walk-Through: A Times Blog on Real Estate

CONSUMED
Big Gulp
By ROB WALKER
Long before Martha Stewart, Edward Bok peddled a vision of the proper middle-class home.

The Ethicist
By RANDY COHEN
Forum: You're the Ethicist



Nicolai Ourousoff on preserving Moscow's modernist architecture.
Audio Slide Show | Article


 PHOTOGRAPHY CONTEST
In the Shadow of the No. 7 Line, by Jeff Chien-Hsing Liao
Slide Show | About the Photographs
The Runners-Up
         

The Real Estate Issue
The Real Estate Issue

What could be more solid, more firmly rooted, than real estate?
Go to Introduction: The For-Sale Society

AMSTERDAM HOUSE
This Very, Very Old House
By RUSSELL SHORTO
What the story of one 400-year-old house in Amsterdam can tell us about today's housing market.

SPECULATOR
Après Le Deluge, Moi
By GARY RIVLIN
How Patrick Quinn is trying to become the Donald Trump of New Orleans.

TAX BREAK
Who Needs the Mortgage-Interest Deduction?
By ROGER LOWENSTEIN
Most people think of the tax break on mortgage interest as fair social policy intended to make respectable homeowning citizens of us all. They are wrong.

VACATION-HOME HUNTER
Club Med for the Multimillionaire Set
By SUSAN DOMINUS
Tim Blixseth, founder of the exclusive Yellowstone Club, wants his superrich club members to unwind, even if he can't.

GREEN HOUSE
How to Build a Low-PVC, Reduced-Plastic, Polar-Bear-Sensitive House
By FLORENCE WILLIAMS
One couple's efforts to construct America's most ecologically friendly dwelling.

THEORIST
Home Economics
By JON GERTNER
Why do houses cost so much when there's plenty of land to build on? Is public housing a good thing? Why do people still move to Detroit? Ed Glaeser has some answers.

ON THE MARKET
Master Suite, Ocean Views, Harem Room and Piano Bar (Seats 200)
By MIMI SHWARTZ
Some $40 million homes are harder to sell than others.

THE NEXT NEIGHBORHOOD
Psst... Have You Heard About Bushwick?
By ROBERT SULLIVAN
How an undesirable neighborhood becomes the next hot spot.
Web Pulse: What will be the next cool New York City neighborhood? | View Results

AFFORDABLE HOUSING
The Suburban Solution
By ANDREW RICE
How do you build affordable housing without federal money? Hitch on to a rising real-estate market and let the private sector do it for you.

Homesteads
Ranches Without the Work
By FLORENCE WILLIAMS

Alumni Condos on Campus
By LISA BELKIN

A Condo on a Permanent Luxury Cruise
By ELIZABETH WEIL

A Virtual Retirement Home
By LISA BELKIN

Prefabs With a Modernist Sensibility
By KAREN OLSSON




Style
POWER BROKERS
Agents Provocateurs

By ALIX BROWNE
Photographs by OLAF BLECKER

The brokers and developers who are as hot as their properties.

Slide Show

LIVES

There Goes the Neighborhood

By MICHAEL SOKOLOVE

On the streets where we live, bigger may not always be better.


Saturday, March 04, 2006 | 09:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

I have to say I agree. If the Fed continues to 5.00%, much less 5.50% as Lehman predicts, this economy is going to fall off a cliff.

Posted by: Lyon | Mar 4, 2006 12:22:25 PM

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