Pause/Resume Scenario Increasingly Likely

Thursday, April 27, 2006 | 12:20 PM
The Markets have reversed on Fed Chair Bernanke's testimony to the JEC with his "Outlook for the U.S. Economy.".

His speech increases the odds that "One & Done" will finally occur:  the Fed is now more likely to stop at 5.0% than I previously believed.

The money quote:   

"Focusing on the medium-term forecast horizon is necessary because of the lags with which monetary policy affects the economy. In my view, data arriving since the last FOMC meeting have not materially changed that assessment of the risks. In particular, even if in the Committee's judgement the risks to its objectives are not entirely balanced, at some point in the future the Committee may decide to take no action at one or more meetings in the interest of allowing more time to receive information relevant to the outlook"

As we previously observed, the Fed Halt is now baked into the cake; Going forward, we need to watch for what we previously viewed as the worst scenario for the markets:  The Fed appeases the markets, halts tightening, and gets behind the inflation curve. After letting inflation get away from it, they subsequently resume tightening, and its a debacle for the markets.

On the scale of hawkish/dovish past Fed Chairs, Bernanke clearly sits near "easy Al" Greenspan end of the spectrum, and far far away from the tough Paul Volcker / William McChesney Martin inflation hawks. So much for that vaunted muscularity we were going to see.

Ben Bernanke is now the Neville Chamberlain of Inflation Fighters . . .

I think Gold -- and most of the commodities -- just got a whole lot sexier . . .

Thursday, April 27, 2006 | 12:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (39) | TrackBack (2) add to | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post



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» CPI Overstates Inflation? Puh-Leeze! from The Big Picture
Larry Kudlow has been flogging my Ben Bernanke as Neville Chamberlain quote for weeks now. So why do I think Ben Bernake is dovish on Inflation? His view of CPI data. Setting aside the rest of the dismal scientists idiotic obsession with the core rate ... [Read More]

Tracked on May 26, 2006 12:55:11 PM

» Careful What You Wish For: Perhaps the Fed Should Raise Afterall from The Big Picture
Friday's reversal calls into question the desirability of a Fed pause. Follow my thinking on this one: The same people who have been begging, wheedling, whining for the Fed to s top have now realized what it was they actually wished for: An official Fe... [Read More]

Tracked on Aug 7, 2006 5:39:01 AM



Any thoughts on what will happen in May if and when the Fed says they're done? My gut says we get an explosive rally followed by a monster fade. What say you?

Posted by: Bynocerus | Apr 27, 2006 12:38:24 PM

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