Mirror, Mirror on the Wall... Who is the Most Bearish of Them All?

Monday, August 14, 2006 | 10:30 AM

With the market up nearly 1% today, there's not a whole lot of Bearish noise to be found. So as a bit of counter-programming (via Roubini Global Economics) comes this comparo of Bearish sentiment.

Yes, I am one of the  guilty.

From any of the following, you can find economic, technical, cyclical, commodity, and historical reasons for slowdown in the future.

The US and Global “Stagflation-Lite” Shock
Roubini Global Economics, Nouriel Roubini, Jun 29, 2006

Reassessing Hard Landing Risks
Analysis: Merrill Lynch, David A. Rosenberg, Feb 23, 2006 

Global: The Pitfalls of Ceteris Paribus
Analysis: Morgan Stanley Global Economic Forum, Stephen S. Roach, Jul 28, 2006

Oil and the Global Economy
Research: CEFIR, Harvard University, Kenneth Rogoff, May 2006

Cult of the Bear
Analysis: The Street.com, Barry Ritholtz, Jul 28, 2006

Recession very likely, prominent economist says - Interview with A. Gary Shilling
Analysis: ITNEWS, John Roberts, Jul 25, 2006

Risky Business
Opinions: American Enterprise Institute, Desmond Lachman, Jul 28, 2006

Hundred Dollar Oil, Five Percent Inflation, and the Coming Recession
Analysis: The International Economy, Philip K. Verleger Jr., Winter 2006

The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions
Research: Federal Reserve, Jonathan H. Wright, March 2006

Pretty decent company, too.

I think of lists like this whenever someone claims the market is perfectly efficient. The lag between identifying threats that (potentially) raise risks, and the time it takes for investors to act on that can be huge.

In other words, there is lots of good info available, yet much of it is widely ignored by many investors.

There is a definite difference between "Information" and "Knowledge," and a further still distance between "Knowledge" and "Wisdom."

Monday, August 14, 2006 | 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | TrackBack (0)
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A thought on your Information / Knowledge / Wisdom comment: The market might be (almost) perfectly efficient with PERCEPTIONS of realty as input. This does not mean that it has the same degree of efficiency regarding ACTUAL reality (such a market is hypothetical anyway).

Posted by: Sherman McCoy | Aug 14, 2006 11:24:01 AM

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