Falling Gas Prices Help Low End Consumer

Tuesday, September 19, 2006 | 09:02 AM

We mentioned last week that decreasing Oil prices would bode well for the consumer -- especially for the lower end consumer.

Not enough to start an entire new cycle, but a little relief that puts some jingle into their pocket.

Yesterday evening, Target tightened their September same store sales forecasts, previously a range of 3-5%; Now, the firm sees 5% same store sales gains:

"Target Corp. (TGT) said late Monday it now expects sales at stores open at least a year to rise around 5% in September, up from a previous forecast for a 3% to 5% rise.

The Minneapolis-based discount retailer's same-store sales rose 5.6% in September 2005. Target's same-store sales were up 2.8% in August; they'd risen 6.3% in the same month a year before."

Note, however, that the drop in Oil to the lows $60s translates as $10 or so a week to most familes.  It is a welcome respite -- as will be lowered natural gas prices this winter-- but its not the beginning of the 1990s all over again . . .

UPDATE September 19, 2006 10:05am

This was a surprise, in light of the recent activity in fuel / energy prices:

Retailers Draw a Weak Forecast for Holidays

Retailers' sales gains during the holiday season will likely be weaker this year as consumers grapple with a stumbling housing market, according to a Washington-based trade group.

The National Retail Federation plans to announce today that it expects retail sales for November and December to increase 5% to $457.4 billion from the 2005 period. Last year, holiday sales increased 6.1%, according to the trade group, in line with its prediction for a 6% gain. Over the past decade, the industry has seen an average annual increase of 4.6%, the group said.

The forecast comes on the heels of weak back-to-school sales for many chains, which have stoked fears that a slowing housing market has begun to take its toll on middle- and upper-income U.S. consumers, who had kept spending despite soaring energy prices over the past year.


Target Lifts Same-Store-Sales Forecast For Sept
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES, September 18, 2006 6:32 p.m.
Carolyn Pritchard

Retailers Draw a Weak Forecast for Holidays
WSJ, September 19, 2006; Page A19

Tuesday, September 19, 2006 | 09:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (28) | TrackBack (0)
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Did you read the Goldman economic analysis of 9/15/06?

They claim the housing bust will result in between 1.5 million and 2 million jobs lost over the next "several" years. They also lowered 3Q GDP from 3% to 2% based in part on the poor retail environment. Finally, they estimate the drop in gasoline prices increase real income by $60 billion, and will result in a 4Q GDP bump to 2.5%.

Posted by: S | Sep 19, 2006 9:32:15 AM

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