Business Week Forecast 2007

Thursday, December 21, 2006 | 07:28 AM


The Business Week forecasts are out, and -- whattayaknow -- I am not the low forecast this year!

This year, the online version did something very interesting: The entire list of 80 pundits is now built into a relational database, readily sortable by every category.

Its way cool -- all of the forecasts are sortable, by mid- and year end- forecast, asset allocation, index, etc. (Suggestion:  Could we see this on one long page, instead of 4?)
It a much better way to present the information than a plain static page. (Hey, this  interactivity thing is fun!)

Speaking of forecasting:   As I discussed Tuesday, I was surprised at seriously people take these things. (I put little weight on forecasts). For the specifics as to why predictions are meaningless, I suggest you read The Folly of Forecasting.

Regardless, my thoughts on this were simple: The pre-correction rally we discussed last year for 2006 -- Dow 11,800, SPX 1,350, and Nasdaq 2620 --came to pass -- but not the correction itself. With the economy slowing, and coprorate profits at a record cyclical high, a revenue/profit slowdown remains a real possibility. (I would go so far as to say an increasing probability).

So the mid-year correction is built into my forecasts -- making me the 2nd lowest mid-year forecast, but the middle of the lower third for year's end.

click for larger table

Somehow, this is seen as a capitualtion, thanks to our friend and neighbor, selective perception.

Anyway, go play with the table --  its pretty cool.

Thursday, December 21, 2006 | 07:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0) add to | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post



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i´m surprised that you still think that the us markets will close green for 07.

as a contrarian i like this....

when i read the "2007 outlook from pimco" there is not much upside left.

PIMCO’s forecast of a U.S. soft landing includes the expectation of a moderate slowdown in consumer spending next year, with the negative ongoing impact from the housing market partially offset by wage growth and the boost to real incomes from lower energy prices. But there is a great degree of uncertainty in the outlook.......

Posted by: jmf | Dec 21, 2006 8:32:54 AM

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