The Big Picture

« Why No Tip Jar? | Main | Meet the Smithereens! »

GDP, Philly Fed, Retail, Trannies

Thursday, December 21, 2006 | 02:39 PM

in Economy | Inflation | Markets | Retail

A quick review of some recent data points:

• Major retailers have dissappointed, either in revs, profits or forecasts: Wal-mart, Best Buy, Circuit City, etc.

• Transports, including FedEx, Yellow RoadWay, and Landstar, have all warned of reduced tonnage volume, profit pressure, and poor outlook.

• Dr. Copper, the metal with the PHD in economics, is now at 6 month lows.

• December Philly Fed survey consensus was +4.0, down from from 5.1 in November. It came in at a negative -4.3 (lowest since Apr '03's -6.8) New orders negative for a second month in a row, Backlogs plummeted;

• Economic growth in the U.S. slowed in the third quarter to a 2% annual rate, dragged down by the biggest decline in home building in 15 years.

• NAHB's index of builder confidence for sales of new, single-family homes slipped in December to near its lowest level in 15 years; The large inventory of unsold homes has not been reduced.

• New Home Building Permits, which foreshadow future activity, fell 3% in November from October and were 31.3% lower than a year earlier.

Is this what a soft landing looks like? (We think not)

The slow motion slow down continues . . .

UPDATE: December 23, 2006, 11:17am

Hey, wontcha look at that : Nouriel Roubini offered up a similar list:

Hard Landing and Soft Landing News of the Week

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
https://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef00d8346268c569e2

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference GDP, Philly Fed, Retail, Trannies:

» RIMM Shot! from The Learning Curve
Barry Ritholz, dedicatee of the 2007 Stock Trader's Almanac, on recent economic data points, asks "Is this what a soft landing looks like? (We think not)." Maybe it does, BR. A 2% GDP in the rear-view mirror is slower than we'd like, but... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 21, 2006 7:00:19 PM

» Economic Data Points and Interpretation from A Dash of Insight
The issue facing investment managers is whether the economy is hitting what Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher calls cruising altitude and speed and we call The Glide Path (negatively cited by many as a soft landing) or whether there is [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 22, 2006 1:25:49 AM