Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (12/27/06)

Wednesday, December 27, 2006 | 03:30 PM
in Media


Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;

Back in the studio tonite, at 5:30 - 6pm.  The topics will include THIS, as well as the market rally, Holiday Retail Sales activity, New Housing data, and of course, other more amusing economic data.

Guests include the forthright John Rutledge, and Art Laffer and Jim Huguet (author of Great Companies, Great Returns).   


UPDATE: December 27, 2006 7:20pm

A classic example of "leaving it in the locker room." No only did I only get in two wishy washy  sentences, but the best stuff came during the commercial breaks between segments.

We went over the long and short sectors, individual names, and nothing made it on the air.

Best line: the day I throw in the towel and flip Bullish, is the day you want to shor tthis market to all hell.    

Better luck next year


A few random thoughts about these items:

1) Its the last week of the year, volume is thin, and mutual fund are having some fun.

2) November's new sales numbers are encouraging, but recall just how subject to revision this data is:

The Census Bureau counts a house as sold when the contract is signed. If a buyer cancels the contract, however, Census does not readjust the numbers. Thus, sales are overstated -- and inventories understated -- for the month the house is initially sold. (And when that house is sold, the reverse happens).

Note that the homebuilders have been reporting cancellations in the 30%+ area -- you can see why these initial numbers are suspect.

3) The sharp 15.6% drop in mortgage applications reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association for purchase loan applications confirm implies that new Home Sales may be overstated.  Wait for the revised New Home data.

4) Lastly, the following email comes to us via a Lennar sales person -- note that these homes are being sold, with add-ons, at greatly reduced prices, and in some cases, at a loss (click for email)


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Wednesday, December 27, 2006 | 03:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (34) | TrackBack (0) add to | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post



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Always wait for revision. Really one half year of revision in reality. They can "base" upward revisions one month and then downward the next, then downward the next month, before upward again lol. Though mostly down in downturns and up in upturns. But it takes them 6 months before they can actually get the general range of number lol. Generally NHS's are about 1.000 or 200-300 off the peek. I would suggest 750 is a good bottom point, at the tale end of a recession, before they sluggishly start to average upward again.

FWIW, you should tell Kudlow the housing market is taking a nasty dump this month. Demand is down, down........down. Worst since June-August "death spiral". If it continues into January, it will real beginning of the housing bust as production(the best way to moniter housing) moves from average rates to below average rates.

Posted by: Cherry | Dec 27, 2006 3:41:52 PM

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