Plus 167k!

Friday, January 05, 2007 | 10:43 AM

DOH!  I thought I posted this before I headed out earlier today -- here is a belated update

~~~
Heckuva a number, Ben.

As feared, the strong number generated selling in both the Bond market (sending yields higher) as well as equities.  The initial dumpage of stock futures is showing equities attempting to claw their way back off the lows.

As to the employment data, a few interesting items:

• The big gainers were Professional and business services (50,000); Health care (31,000), plus more ambulatory health care services (14,000), and hospitals (11,000);  Services for buildings and dwellings gained 13,000;
 • Employment in construction was about unchanged over the month;
• Manufacturing jobs continued to trend downward;
• After increasing by 295,000 in 2005, construction employment was little changed in 2006.  
• Temporary help services employment was little changed over the month and over the year. Temp #s are forward looking, and often precede actual permanent hiring.

 

I still don't know which data to believe, ADP or the soon to be revised BLS. But its apparent that the market is looking at this -- plus today's Fed speechifying -- as reducing the odds of a rate cut anytime soon...

Friday, January 05, 2007 | 10:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0)
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I still don't know which data to believe, ADP or the soon to be revised BLS.

Calculated Risk has a brief discussion of this then links over to Econobrowser where Dr. hamilton goes into it a little deeper.

Regardless - I think your analysis is correct, no rate cuts anytime soon, nor do I think there should be any.

Posted by: dryfly | Jan 5, 2007 2:58:55 PM

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