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The Fortress Top?

Earlier today, Doug Kass was calling today's opening surge the "Fortress Top" as the hedge fund Fortress (FIG) went public.

I don't disagree that hedge funds going public are dubious, given their "reliable earnings stream and safety from blow ups". 

In a note to subscribers yesterday, I explained why big cap tech was looking so risky, and why Microsoft (MSFT) was potentially ugly. Today, Cantor's Peter Bookvar noted that Microsoft is now down 7 days in a row and down 9 of 10 trading days on nervousness that Vista sales are sluggish -- but let's not forget MS Office, or the iPod killer, Zune . . .

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On a related note, a hedge fund buddy disagrees with me that sentiment has been leaning bullish, but not excessively so as to be a contra-indicator. SF thinks the general attitude has been frothy to the point of excess. To wit: earnings shortfall seem to be deemed company specific while good reports are proof of the economy being bullet proof. Then there is the analyst communtiy tripping over itself to call a bottom in SemiConductors; All that's before we get to the GM upgrades, which are to say somewhat starry eyed as to behemoth's problems and decreasing market share.

>

Sources:
I Am Calling This the Fortess Market Top
Doug Kass
Real Money, 2/9/2007 10:28 AM EST
http://www.thestreet.com/i/dps/te/theedge1.html#entryId10337996

Semis Ready to Roll Again
INVESTORS' SOAPBOX, J.P. Morgan Securities
Barron's FEBRUARY 9, 2007
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB117097979867103006.html

Friday, February 09, 2007 | 03:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

The uptrend on the major indexes is still intact, next week we'll know if "liquidity" will step in to buy the dip, or whether we start the long awaited correction - maybe 5-10%? Most seem bullish still...

Posted by: Lauriston | Feb 9, 2007 3:28:29 PM