The Forecast for 2007 Housing: SUCK

Wednesday, March 07, 2007 | 03:54 PM

Call it a tale of two CEOs.

At the Citibank Housing Conference, we heard two versions of the housing implosion from two industry leaders. On the one hand, Robert Toll (Toll Bros CEO) was saying that his cancellation rate was slowing (unfortunately, so have been his sales).

In a separate presentation at Citibank, DHI CEO had a few choice words: 

"D.R. Horton, the second-largest builder by revenue, will likely miss its internal goals for 2007 home closings, Tomnitz said today. Closings will likely fall below 2006 levels, he said.

"I don't want to be too sophisticated here, but 2007 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar year,'' Tomnitz said. "Our future is not as bright as what we would like it to be.''

There are some in the housing industry who certainly don't pull any punches. Tomnitz may not win any awards for eloquence, but the guy isn't spinning investors with crap. At the very least, that is fairly refreshing.

Incidentally, I am working on a related issue for tomorrow -- call it the "Wages of Spin" -- that looks at the negative impact of real estate industry bullshit . . .



Toll Cancellations Drop; Horton Says Market to `Suck'
Brian Louis and Sharon L. Crenson
Bloomberg, 2007-03-07 15:54

Wednesday, March 07, 2007 | 03:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (24) | TrackBack (0) add to | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post



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Toll Brothers was really positive this morning. Of course, Robert Toll has been positive in the past while dumping his own stock at the same time. I guess this means the Horton CEO doesnt have stock to dump. Acutally, I give him credit for honesty. Suck has now become an official Wall Street term.

Posted by: GerryL | Mar 7, 2007 4:00:04 PM

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