Fun with Housing Charts

Thursday, May 17, 2007 | 12:30 PM

I've come across quite a few fascinating Housing charts over the past week.

Taken together, they tell a tale of sector that has yet to see a bottom. And I suspect the economic impact has yet to be fully felt:

Housing is not getting better anytime soon:  This is an survey discussion asking about various apsects Builder's Businesses. Its bad enough that the Index (HMI) in May dropped 3 points to 30. It was bad across the board -- but the real ugliness was in traffic of potential buyers -- that's a leading indicator to Builders as to how much product they will be moving -- It dropped to 23. In the heart of the selling season (survey data was done in May). 

NAHB Housing Index


Chart courtesy of NAHB


Starts and New Permits are still dropping rapidly. Given all the excess inventory, this is actually the silver lining in the slowdown.

 Housing Starts and Permits

Chart courtesy of Northern Trust

Marketbeat points out that new Housing construction has now slipped to around 1.5 million units -- that of a normal, growing economy. Expect housing starts generally falls to about 800k to 1 million units before a rebound is seen.

IYR Top?

The DJ Real Estate Index is a potential 20% loser from here, based on the Head & Shoulder topping pattern:


Chart courtesy of Mike Panzner


What does this mean to the economy? The clear implication is that consumer spending willr meain pressured, and retail stocks -- excepting the Luxe goods -- will continue to have a difficult environment.

NAHB Housing Index and Consumer Spending



Builder Confidence Slips Again In May
NAHB, May 15, 2007

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)

Two Markets Diverging
David Gaffen
WSJ, May 16, 2007, 4:10 pm

Thursday, May 17, 2007 | 12:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (21) | TrackBack (1) add to | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post



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» DJ US Real Estate Index Paradox from datawink
bigpicture had fun with housing charts, and I had to join in specifically for the DJ US Real Estate Index (IYR) chart outlining a head and shoulders pattern from Mike Panzner. A motivator was determining whether signals from TA would align with data... [Read More]

Tracked on May 18, 2007 2:01:42 AM


Today, Bernanke was bearish on the housing market too.

Bernanke Says Subprime Lending Curbs May Put `Restraint' on Housing Market

Posted by: V L | May 17, 2007 2:01:58 PM

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