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Updated Disclosure Statement

Saturday, June 30, 2007 | 11:59 PM

Our amusing yet informative disclosure statement has been updated.   

I plan on doing this on a quarterly basis.

click for our hilarious yet deadly serious disclosures


Saturday, June 30, 2007 | 11:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
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End of Quarter Linkfest: Week in Review

Saturday, June 30, 2007 | 06:30 PM

That's the quarter!

While it might have been a bumpy week, it was a helluva Q for most asset classes. The Dow saw its best Q since 2003, gaining 8.5%, while the Nasdaq was right behind at +7.5%; Despite the newfound love for many of the big caps, the S&P 500 was the laggard for the quarter, gaining a still respectable 5.8%.

Month_20070629201406 Those numbers are even more impressive when you realize that the major indices failed to make any headway in the month of June:  the S&P 500 gave up 1.8%, the Dow and the Russell 2000  both slipped 1.6%, while the Nasdaq chopped around, ending up down 0.05%.

For this past week, the biggest gainer was Crude Oil, up 2.2% (hitting a  10-month high of $70.68 a barrel), followed by AAA and Treasuries, up 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. The Nasdaq kept even with Treasuries, while the Dow tacked on 0.4%. The S&P500 gained a bip, while the Russell 200 lost one. Emerging markets, REITs, non-oil commodities, Junk bonds and Gold  all gave up ground for the week.

The final numbers for the week does not describe how erratic the trading was: It is clear that the subprime/CDO mess had traders on edge; With opening gains being reversed, and clawing back from losses. Indeed, the indices repeatedly hit intraday highs only to fail those levels by day's end.

Barron's Trader column notes: "Uneasiness over a potentially over-levered market was summed up recently by Punk Ziegel analyst Richard Bove, who outlined a wobbly inverted pyramid. At the bottom is real GDP growth of about 1.9% over the past year. On top of that is personal income growth of about 5.8%. But total credit outstanding has increased 8.7%, asset-backed securities have grown 18.7%, while debt held by broker dealers is up more than 26%."

So where will we begin? The iPhone? Quarter's end? FOMC Meeting? No, the dominant meme this past week was the Bear Stearns hedge fund implosion, and where that might go next:


Wall Street Fears Bear Stearns Is Tip of an Iceberg:   The near-meltdown of two hedge funds at investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. last week underscored -- and in some ways aggravated -- a growing fear on Wall Street: that hard-to-trade investments may suddenly turn south and set off a broader market downturn. The Bear Stearns funds, whose investors include wealthy individuals, other hedge funds and some of the firm's own executives, are part of a recent boom in investment vehicles specializing in illiquid assets, such as exotic securities, highways and timber lands. Unlike stocks or bonds listed on an exchange, such assets can't be readily bought or sold. That makes it hard to establish an accurate price for them. Fund managers have broad discretion in attaching a value to these assets, and often don't reveal many details of their trades. (Wall Street Journal)

• Hedge Funds laden with collateralized debt obligations have some surprising similarities with a certain well known corporate debacle:  CDO Hedge Funds = Enron ?

• Who else is sitting with all of this toxic debt? You'll be quite surprised to see The Poison in Your Pension  (Bloomberg Magazine)

Moving on:

Mutual funds up 6.3% in Q2, led by natural resources funds: The 8,010 U.S. diversified stock funds tracked by Lipper showed an average preliminary return of 6.3% for the three months ended Thursday. They are up 8.6% for 2007.The final trading session of the quarter was Friday, when major stock indexes were little changed. Collectively, the funds' assets rose to $4.14 trillion from about $3.82 trillion at the end of the first quarter.The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 5.8% during the second quarter compared with an increase of only 0.8% in the first quarter. The Dow Jones industrial average, made up of 30 blue chip stocks, gained more than 1,000 points in the second quarter, advancing 8.5%. Its first-quarter increase was a modest 0.9%.Some of the same fund types that have showed strong performances in recent quarters continued to climb in the second quarter. The 63 China regional funds tracked by Lipper showed an average return of 21%, while two dozen Latin America funds had an average return of 20%.  (AP

Money vs Fortune:

-Don't count out the bull (Money)

-In a rocky stock market, play it safe (Fortune)

Buffett Bets a Million: Buffett said he makes $46 million a year in income and is only taxed at a 17.7 percent rate on his federal income taxes. By contrast, those who work for him, and make considerably less, pay on average about 32.9 percent in taxes - with the highest rate being 39.7 percent. To emphasize his point, Buffett offered $1 million to the audience member who could show that one of the nation's wealthiest individuals pays a higher tax rate than one of their subordinates. "I'm willing to bet anyone in this room $1 million that those rates are less than the secretary has to pay," said Buffett. (CNNMoney)

Rich investors shunned hedge funds for property in 2006 - study (Forbes)   

Whoops! An order that originated from Fidelity Investments was transmitted incorrectly, causing shares of Wyeth to be halted this morning on the New York Stock Exchange as specialists identified what they considered erroneous trades . . . But in an episode likely to revive debate about the benefits of human involvement in trades, the Nasdaq was forced to cancel, or break, so-called off-market trades made via electronic platforms in the morning hours prior to the NYSE halt.  Fidelity Data Error Triggered NYSE Stock Halts (The Street.comSee also: Beware the Fat-Thumbed Trader!

What Bubble? China's Analysts More Bullish Than Ever Analysts who cover Chinese companies, such as Zhang, are the most bullish they've been at any time in the past 10 years. Total buy calls on mainland shares from local and foreign analysts rose to 67.4 percent of all ratings this month, the highest since Bloomberg began collating the data a decade ago. The bullishness comes as the government is trying to cool a rally that's made shares there the most expensive in Asia. (Bloomberg)

Quote of the Day: "We do think if you're dumb enough to buy a home builder (share), you ought to buy us."  - R. Chad Dreier, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Ryland Group Inc to an investor audience at the JP Morgan Basics and Industrials Conference, held June 11-12, 2007. (Reuters)



Funny thing about The Wall of Worry this week: The backward looking stuff is fairly positive, while tomorrow's forward looking items are all negative  . . .

Yield Curve Rights Itself Without Fed's Help: (Bloomberg)

Ranks of Rich in U.S. Grow at Faster Pace (free Wall Street Journal

U.S. Deal-Making Topped $1 Trillion in First Half (NYT)   

Another Greenspan Legacy: "Ben S. Bernanke is not Alan Greenspan with a beard." (Barron's)


Housing Deterioration Continues   

A CNN/Money comparo:

-Slump? What slump? Home values OK
-Weakest home sales in 4 years


Critiques of Iraq War Reveal Rifts Among Army Officers: The conflicting theories on Iraq reflect growing divisions within the military along generational lines, pitting young officers, exhausted by multiple Iraq tours and eager for change, against more conservative generals. Army and Air Force officers are also developing their own divergent explanations for Iraq. The Air Force narratives typically suggest the military should in the future avoid manpower-intensive guerrilla wars. Army officers counter that such fights are inevitable.  See also U.K. Bomb Plot Raises Questions  (free Wall Street Journal)

Time magazine's cover story on Rupert Murdoch:  "They're taking five billion dollars out of me and want to keep control," Rupert Murdoch was saying into the phone, "in an industry in crisis! They can't sell their company and still control it?? that's not how it works. I'm sorry!"  Rupert Murdoch Speaks

The Washington Post looks at Dick Cheney, the most influential and powerful man ever to hold the office of vice president. This series examines Cheney's largely hidden and little-understood role in crafting policies for the War on Terror, the economy and the environment.

Al Gore's $100 Million Makeover: Not long ago, he was the butt of jokes--lockbox, earth tones, a postelection beard. Then he dusted off an old slide show and jumped with both feet into the private sector. The untold story of how an epic loser engineered what may be the greatest brand makeover of our time. (Fast Company)


• Forget the hype a moment, and consider the following: What Does the iPhone Teach Us About Technology & Commerce?

• Overlooked in the iPhone hype: First Bacterial Genome Transplantation Changing One Species to Another  (This is pretty amazing stuff) 

Life at Google - Perspective from a Microsoftie: From my interview with a former Google employee I hired into ABC Development as a Senior Software Design Engineer --  Here it is. This candidate is also a former MS employee who left the company and founded a Start-up called XYZ, which was purchased by Google and he was hired on as a Senior Software Engineer II / Technical Lead. Here is his take on Google's environment as well as areas Microsoft should consider improving in order to be more competitive . . .


Blade Runner Turns 25: One of my all time favorite films, based on a 1968 science fiction novel "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?," by one of my favorite Sci-Fi authors, is having an anniversary.

• Why are financial markets becoming more prone to crises even though the underlying economy has grown less risky over time? A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation looks at that very issue. It got a nice review from the CFA Institute.

• Rolling Stone reports on where the music business went wrong: The Record Industry's Decline   

• This is ostensibly real email has been circulating from a disgruntled employee:  Farewell!

• I've been to wineries all over the country, from Sonoma and Napa Valley to Long Island's North Fork. On either coast, this is great advice: Fifteen Steps to a Successful Winery Visit   


I am compelled to remind people that 1.0 of anything is usually problematic, and as much as I find the iPhone droolworthy, I know that 2.0 will be faster/cheaper/smaller with more iPod capacity and all of the bugs worked out. Until, then feel free to keep me in the loop on iPhone Experiences.

See y'all tomorrow.


Got a comment, suggestion, link idea? Or do you just have something on your mind? The linkfest loves to get email!  If you've got something to say, then by all means please do.

Saturday, June 30, 2007 | 06:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
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10 Questions About CDOs

Saturday, June 30, 2007 | 11:11 AM

James Hamilton at Econbrowser asks the remarkably sanguine question: CDOs: what's the big deal?

He does a nice job looking at many of the issues this topic raises. However, I still have some unanswered questions about CDOs:

Thus, I will respond to the Prof in true Socratic method by asking more questions. These raise the possibility that not only CDOs may be a big deal, but we don't have a clue how big a deal it may be -- Modest? Gargantuan? Ginormous?

Here are my 10 questions:

1. What would have happened had Bear Stearns simply let their two funds, High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund and High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, dissolve?

2. If CDOs are not priced to market, what are the actual values of these holdings?

3. How levered up are the funds that own the bulk of the CDOs? 10-to-1? 20-to-1? More?

4. How many Hedge funds are or have been taking quarterly or annual performance profits, based in whole or in part, on hoildings that have been marked to a theoretical value ("Mark-to-Model") versus an actual value ("Mark-to-Market")?

5. Liquidity has been a driving force behind M&A activity, share buybacks, and leveraged buyouts. Might the CDO situation somehow impact liquidity?   

6. Might a liquidation in a CDO/illiquid derivative fund spread to other asset classes?

7. How widely held are the toxic CDO tranches in funds that are self-decribed as "conservative" or "risk averse?" 

8. How accurate are the major ratings firms (Moodys, Standard & Poors, Fitch) assessment of these products. Are these outfits arm's length objective raters, or are they merely corporate whores who play for pay?

9. After the final chapter is written on CDOs, what might the total losses on the $250 Billion in quarterly CDOs that Wall Street has created actually be? 10 Billion? 100 Billion? 1 Trillion?

10. How much will systemic confidence be impacted if there is a series of large fund failures due to CDOs? What impact might that have on the rest of the markets?


The big deal is that we simply know so little about these issues. Wall Street has gotten better, for the most part, about managing risk. But these CDOs are increasingly looking like unknown factors, with an unknown set of risk parameters.

Hence, that is what the big deal is . . .

Saturday, June 30, 2007 | 11:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (25) | TrackBack (0)
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The Paris Hilton Trading System

Friday, June 29, 2007 | 02:30 PM

From David Linton, CEO of  the UK's Updata Technical Service, comes this bit of whimsy:

"OK, it's Friday and I couldn't resist building on an idea mooted by a client recently. We have dubbed this the Paris Hilton Trading System.

I started out with the idea that you buy Hilton shares in the US on good news about Paris and sell on bad news, or indeed the other way round. But the results were fairly mixed and deciding what constituted good and bad was getting difficult. The Optimised Stop for Hilton is 3% with a 5 day signal delay and you should not take signals during a breach or within 23 days of the stop signal.

So if you are trading news algos just take every 'Paris Hilton' on those stop conditions. The result is the Equity Curve below."


The Paris Hilton Trading System


Hysterical !  Thanks, Dave!

Friday, June 29, 2007 | 02:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (9) | TrackBack (1)
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Recent Changes to the Blog

Friday, June 29, 2007 | 11:00 AM

Due to rabid demand, my fabulous designer/programmer has made some improvements to the site:

1. Print functionality: There is now a print this button that is formatted for 8.5 X 11 paper! No headers or irrelevant formatting -- just the blog post! (should be finshed shortly)

2. Hide email from comments: You can now post your real email address, and it won't be seen by spammers (but I will see it) This is important, for those of you who I might need to reach

3. We added a few items, widgets, a category cloud, and some technorati stuff.

4. The blockquote color was changed to #000066. Thats the dark purple, which is much easier on the eyes than the bright blue.

5. Actual posting date and time stamp added to Headline at top

6. Added BlogAds and GoogleAds. 

For those of you who read TBP via a feed, I also tweaked some Feedburner settings last week -- and the feed subs went up 10 fold. These have been full feeds since you vociferously requested it.

These changes should show up before the day is over . . .


Finally, quite a few of you have suggested going for Sponsors rather than advertisers. I am all ears as to which firms do this repping/sales for this. Any suggestions?


Friday, June 29, 2007 | 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
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Gaming the Data: Realtors Fudging the Numbers

Friday, June 29, 2007 | 06:18 AM

As if the NAR data wasn't gamed, massaged and otherwise manipulated by the reportage of local realtors themselves: It turns out to be even worse than I imagined.

From a South Florida paper, we learn that local realtors are refusing to submit ALL THE DATA to their regional Board of Realtors, because doing so would dilute the nicer parts of town with lower-priced and worse-performing neighbors:

"The Naples Area Board of Realtors has long wanted to report that city's results undiluted by lower-priced and worse-performing neighbors.

In fact, for the past few months, the board has refused to submit its sales and price numbers to the Florida Association of Realtors for its comprehensive monthly reports.

Marla Martin, an FAR spokeswoman, said the Naples board -- representing the wealthiest median home sales prices in Florida -- had raised issues with the state association relating to the presentation of the board's sales and price data."

Can't have those crappy neighborhoods affecting our overall sales data, can we?

Statistics published in the trade association's "Sarasota Realtor" magazine had this footnote: Data may "include some listings in Manatee, Englewood, Venice and other areas." For shame . . .

THis  is merely one of the many different ways that Realtors have been playing with their data: First, a slow selling house can get pulled off of Multiple Listing, and then relisted with a different MLS number and at a lower price. That makes the overall time-to-sell appear much better than it really is. The mulligan can take months or even years of time-on-the-market-to-sell.

This game also improves the "Percentage of asking price recieved" number. A $600k house that sold for $450k is 75% of ask, versus the same home relisted and asking $500k -- and getting the same $450k; that's selling for 90% of asking price.

Defaults_20070629 Of course, all of this is irrelevant to the rising tide of Foreclosures:  while several private and state efforts have been made to reduce the increases, the bottom line is that there are presently millions of homes occupied by people who cannot afford them. Changing an ARM to a 30 year fixed isn't going to alter that.

And, as the nearby chart reveals, its not just "Sub-prime" mortgages -- "Alt A"s are seeing a nice spike in late payments (60 days overdue) and defaults too . . .


Realtor groups may quit statewide reports
Herald-Tribune, June 26. 2007 4:49AM

Subprime: Point to Where It Hurts
Steps to Modify Loans And Avert Foreclosures Has Investors Clashing
WSJ, June 29, 2007; Page C1

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Synthetic Credit Event Postponed . . .

Thursday, June 28, 2007 | 09:04 PM

A friend across the pond forwards this:


You can't make this stuff up!

Thursday, June 28, 2007 | 09:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
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Parsing the Fed

Thursday, June 28, 2007 | 04:30 PM

 Some interesting changes in the Fed statement, via the public side of the WSJ:


Click thru for the full parsing . . .

Thursday, June 28, 2007 | 04:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0)
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Knights of the round table: mapping out the markets

Thursday, June 28, 2007 | 10:55 AM

Prieur du Plessis put together an excellent roundtable discussion about the global economy, markets, equities, inflation, bonds, housing, gold, energy, etc. 

I participated in this, along with John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Investments; Martin Barnes of BCA Research, and David Fuller of Stockcube Research.

That represents quite a few points on the globe: Prieur is located in South Africa, John in Texas, Martin is a Scot working in Canada, David in London, and myself in New York.

The full discussion can be found here.


Knights of the round table: mapping out the markets
Prieur du Plessis
June 28, 2007

Thursday, June 28, 2007 | 10:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
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CDO Hedge Funds = Enron ?

Thursday, June 28, 2007 | 06:48 AM

Last night's discussion of the Bear Stearn's Hedge Fund melt down was remarkably sanguine.

I guess to those who look at the blow up of a small hedge fund -- it was only $684 million in equity, albeit leveraged up 10-to-1 to $6.8 billion. Hey, sometimes, losses happen.

And Wall Street has been terrific about managing risk, haven't they? I mean, they did a great job with the dot coms, and they are doing a terrific job with housing, right? There may be 49 Trillion dollars worth of derivatives -- thats trillion with a "T" -- so what if 1 or 2% goes belly up?  It's well contained.

Um, not exactly.

There are several issues here that deserve closer scrutiny. Here's how I connect the dots:

1. Side Pockets: A way to move toxic holdings "Off Balance Sheet," to a netherland, hidden from investors and perhaps regulators. This lack of transparency does not exactly comply with truth-in-reporting to your investors or FASB accounting standards.

Sound familiar? It should: Its remarkably similar to Enron Off Balance Sheet Special Partnerships. The WSJ's Scott Patterson went into the details last week:

Even if Bear's pain spreads through the market, other hedge-fund investors might not feel it, at least right away. Sometimes, hedge funds move big pieces of their holdings into separate accounts known as side pockets to keep declining assets from hurting a main fund's performance record -- and managers' wallets. They can also block investors from cashing out.

2. Mark-to-Model: The similarities to Kenny boy's outfit don't end there:   What do we do with illiquid holdings where the fund is both the buyer and seller, and the parent company is the buyer of last resort? Unlike most mutual and hedge fund, who mark-to-market based upon the closing price pof their assets, holders of these CDOs get to indulge their "creative" side. Instead of writing the great American novel, they derive a model that optimistically prices these illiquid assets.

Why optimistic? Because the theoretical returns to investors and actual fees to management are based on the pricing of these (non-priced) assets!  Keep those Enron parallels coming!

Indeed, the reason Bear was originally willing to pony up $3.2 billion dollars was what would happen if there was an actual public auction price: The entire complex would have to reprice all oft heir holdings. Buy bye investor returns, buy bye fees!

3. Crimping Copious Consumer Lending: What does all this esoteric derivatives and murky hedge fund operations have to do with me, Al Franken the ordinary investor?

First off are lending standards: They have tightened -- in some instances, dramatically. That means any debt fueled consumer purchases -- most especially, homes -- have a reduced pool of buyers. That will pressure prices further, reduce MEW, leading to decreasing consumer spending. The spigot that has been open wide for so long is now reducing its flow.

4. Crimping Copious Corporate Liquidity: Mr. Market has enjoyed a delightful wind at his back, funded  by corporate buybacks, Leveraged buyouts, M&A activity. The issue rates front page coverage in this morning's WSJ: Market's Jitters Stir Some Fears For Buyout Boom.

Remember, this is all courtesy of lots of Fed induced liquidity, and a willingness of lenders to provide lots of cash to high risk borrowers at low rates with easy terms. In Tuesday's FT, Lombard Street Research's chief economist, Charles Dumas noted what could happen as this dries up:

“With this mortgage-backed crisis we could simultaneously see market-price liquidity implode just as banks are forced to shrink their books by capital losses.”

“Banks’ capital is about to be slashed, and with it excess liquidity in the global system...Suppose the CDOs held by banks were valued at “market” rather than “model” levels (a fancy new euphemism for  illusionary historic book values). Their capital would turn out to be lower. Preservation of capital  ratios against loans would require fewer loans: liquidity would have imploded...  better to let the Bear flounder than reveal just what a low value the Street puts on even the A-rated paper.  A bunch of hedge funds may have problems, but that is the tip of the iceberg for “Titanic” Wall Street."

Mr.Duma may be overstating the case somewhat -- he's more Bearish than I -- but he raises very significant issues that have very real risks -- the same risks most of the bullish crowd seems to be overlooking.


How might this play out? Well, Mortgages at banks with past due payments are at the highest level since 1994, according to first-quarter data compiled by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Mortgage defaults are accelerating, not getting better.

Oh, and a whole slew of Sub-prime ARM Mortgage Resets are scheduled to hit in the 2nd half of 2007.

To say the least, this is going to get increasingly interesting . . .

UPDATE: June 28, 2007 2:12pm

Caliber Global, which controlled almost $1 bln in assets, to shut down

Caliber Global Investment Ltd., a London-listed fund that controlled almost $1 billion of mortgage assets, said on Thursday that it's shutting down after turmoil in the subprime market cut demand for its shares.

Caliber (UK:CLBR: news, chart, profile) , run by Cambridge Place Investment Management, plans to sell all of its assets over the next 12 months and return as much money as possible to shareholders, the fund said in a statement. The plan needs to be approved by investors at an extraordinary meeting in August, Caliber added.

Caliber is the latest casualty of rising delinquencies in the subprime mortgage market, which caters to poorer borrowers with blemished credit records. Bear Stearns Cos. is trying to salvage two of its hedge funds that focus on the space, while another run by UBS AG shut down earlier this year.


Recent Woes Cast Light on Hedge Funds' Murkiness
Scott Patterson
WSJ, June 21, 2007; Page C1
Is Cheap Debt Drying Up?
Breaking Views
WSJ, June 27, 2007; Page C14

Market's Jitters Stir Some Fears For Buyout Boom
Takeover-Related Debt Gets Chilly Reception;  Hearing 'Wake-Up Call'
WSJ, June 28, 2007; Page A1

Market insight: Liquidity under threat
Charles Dumas
Finacial Times, June 26 2007 17:47 | Last updated: June 26 2007 17:47

Thursday, June 28, 2007 | 06:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (29) | TrackBack (1)
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