Case Shiller Housing Composite: Worst since 1991
Pretty amazing: This data release (May 2007) marks the 18th consecutive decline in growth, dating back to December 2005.
As the chart below shows, annual returns of the Case Shiller Composite now shows continued negative annual returns -- an annual decline rate of 3.4%. These place the national market for real estate and single family homes at levels not seen since the summer of 1991. (The 20-City annual decline rate is 2.8%).
Excerpt:
“At a national level, declines in annual home price returns are showing no signs of a slowdown or turnaround,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “Year-over-year price returns are continuing to either move deeper into negative territory or experience persistent diminishing returns. If there is any positive news in these numbers, it may be that in both May and April eight of the 20 markets showed positive monthly growth rates. This compares to only one or two of the 20 in the late winter and early spring. We need a few more months of data, however, to determine if this is the beginning of a national turnaround, since the national trend is still at a sharp deceleration.”
With Chicago now reporting negative annual returns, 15 of the 20 metro areas are now reporting negative annual price returns. In addition, 16 of the metro areas saw a decline in their annual growth rate compared to April’s data. Detroit continues to lead the metro areas in growth rate declines, down 11.1% from a year ago and has been in annual decline since May 2006 . . .
Pretty astonishing fall from the peak. And, based upon inventory levels and present sale rates, we are not remotely close to done.
Case Shiller Home Price Index
chart courtesy of Standard & Poors
Here is the break down via Tradition Financial Services, Inc. / TFS Derivatives Corp.
|
|
S&P/Case-Shiller Index - May 2007 |
|
|
| ||||
|
|
May
06 |
Apr
07 |
Apr
07R |
May
07 |
Apr07
v May07 |
Apr07
v May07 |
May06
v May07 |
|
|
Bos |
178.61 |
169.60 |
169.60 |
170.95 |
1.35
|
0.80% |
-4.3% |
Bos |
|
Chi |
166.61 |
165.87 |
165.87 |
165.68 |
(0.19) |
-0.11% |
-0.6% |
Chi |
|
Den |
138.31 |
134.86 |
134.86 |
136.32 |
1.46
|
1.08% |
-1.4% |
Den |
|
LV |
234.39 |
226.65 |
226.65 |
224.79 |
(1.86) |
-0.82% |
-4.1% |
LV |
|
LA |
272.12 |
263.36 |
263.36 |
263.19 |
(0.17) |
-0.06% |
-3.3% |
LA |
|
Mia |
278.68 |
273.53 |
273.53 |
269.52 |
(4.01) |
-1.47% |
-3.3% |
Mia |
|
NY |
215.57 |
211.65 |
211.89 |
210.69 |
(0.96) |
-0.45% |
-2.3% |
NY |
|
SD |
249.15 |
232.64 |
232.64 |
231.80 |
(0.84) |
-0.36% |
-7.0% |
SD |
|
SF |
218.37 |
211.47 |
211.47 |
210.89 |
(0.58) |
-0.27% |
-3.4% |
SF |
|
WDC |
251.07 |
235.29 |
236.17 |
235.15 |
(1.02) |
-0.43% |
-6.3% |
WDC |
|
Comp |
226.00 |
218.93 |
219.01 |
218.37 |
(0.64) |
-0.29% |
-3.4% |
Comp |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source:
Late
Spring Numbers Bring Chilly Returns According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home
Price Indices
S&P, July 31, 9:00 AM EST
PDF
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_May1235.pdf
Tuesday, July 31, 2007 | 09:54 AM | Permalink
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Comments
That slope from 2006 on down is the steepest decent- or even ascent- on the curve. There ain't no turn-around there.
With +8% to +20% for all of 1998-2006, aren't sustained declines of -5% to -10% for a few years entirely feasible? All the positive drivers for the real estate market in 1998-2006 have turned negative... in such a situation, can't the market go down half as fast as its been going up?
That seems entirely feasible, doesn't it? And yet it would be devastating...
Posted by: Sherman McCoy | Jul 31, 2007 10:55:51 AM
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