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Media Appearance: Bloomberg TV (07/13/07)

I'm off to Bloomberg TV from 10:40am or so. We will be discussing all of the recent Retail Data, and its impact on the Markets and the Fed. If you are not near a TV, you can stream it here: http://www.bloomberg.com/tvradio/tv/

We will be discussing the June Retail Sales Data, which were released earlier today -- and it stunk up the joint. Some Details via Rex Nutting at Marketwatch:

-Auto sales fell 2.9% in June after a 1.1% gain in May. Excluding auto sales, retail sales fell 0.4%, compared with expectations of a gain of 0.2%;

-Excluding autos and gasoline, sales fell 0.3%, the biggest decline in three years;

-Demand for other durable goods was also very weak, showing the impact of the housing slowdown. Sales of furniture fell 3%, the biggest drop in four years. Sales of electronics and appliances fell 1.4%. Sales of building materials fell 2.3%;

-Sales of nondurable goods were mixed. Sales at clothing stores fell 1.4%, but sales at most other kinds of stores rose;

-Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.3%, despite being held back by a 1% drop in department store sales;

-Sales at health and personal care stores rose 1.2%;

-Sales at food and beverage stores rose 0.4%. Sales at restaurants and bars rose 0.1%;

-Sales at nonstore retailers, such as catalogs and online stores, rose 1.2%;

-Sales at sporting goods, music, books and hobby stores rose 0.4%.

This was no surprise after The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported that June 2007 sales decelerated from last year -- they expect increases of ~1.5% versus 3% in June 2006.

Note the difference between Food sellers and  everyone else: The USDA says milk prices increased 68% y/y in June. The DoE has gasoline prices +28% y/y. Wal-Mart Press Release noted “As in the past four months of this fiscal year, grocery sales continued to be stronger than general merchandise during the June five-week period at the Wal-Mart Stores segment.”

~~~

Some specific company info worth observing:

-Costco slightly beat estimates by 0.1%, +6% with 5.9% expected

-Target, one the nation' largest retailers, reported the expected 3.3% gain

-JC Penney reported a DECLINE of 1.5% but it was smaller than the expected decline of 3.1%

-Macy’s reported a decline more than the expected 1.7%

-Kohl’s reported a decline of -4.9%, which is much larger than the expected -2.3%

-GAP, one of the largest US clothing retailers, reported a decline of 5% (4.1% was expected)

-Ann Taylor reported an 8.4% decline; 5% was expected

-Limited Brands reported a 3% decline’ -3.1% was expected

-ANF reported a gain of 2% on aggressive discounting of lightweight items; a decline of 2.8% was expected

Should be fun . . .

>

Sources:
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services
Census Dept., June 2007
http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html
http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/marts_current.html

Retail sales fall 0.9%, largest drop since 2005
Tepid demand for durable goods and falling gas prices sink sales in June
Rex Nutting
MarketWatch, 9:16 AM ET Jul 13, 2007
http://tinyurl.com/yvdmk3

U.S. Retail Sales Fell More Than Forecast in June
Shobhana Chandra
Bloomberg, July 13 2007
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUoLhoOapFQk&

Friday, July 13, 2007 | 10:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

Hang in there Barry. This is blind buying. Heads I win tails you lose stuff. The $ is down; oil and food are up. The core CPI tells you where to be by what is excluded: food and energy.

Posted by: zell | Jul 13, 2007 12:05:43 PM