Global Returns: YTD, QTD

Thursday, August 16, 2007 | 07:15 AM

This simple table shows how we have done Year-to-Date (past 8 months):

World_indices

Here are the same countries returns, Quarter-to-Date (beginning June 30th close)

June_30_to_present_returns

   

If the most bullish thing markets can do is go up, than what might these returns imply . . . ?


>


See also:
Asian, European stocks plunge
MARI YAMAGUCHI
Associated Press, August 16, 2007
http://tinyurl.com/2no9za

Thursday, August 16, 2007 | 07:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (21) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

What would Warren Buffett say?

Off topic, as usual, but it's time to revisit the Berkshire Hathaway 2002 letter to shareholders and do a search on the word “derivatives”:

Charlie and I are of one mind in how we feel about derivatives and the trading activities that go with them: We view them as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system.
...
Charlie and I believe, however, that the macro picture is dangerous and getting more so. Large amounts of risk, particularly credit risk, have become concentrated in the hands of relatively few derivatives dealers, who in addition trade extensively with one other. The troubles of one could quickly infect the others. On top of that, these dealers are owed huge amounts by non-dealer counterparties. Some of these counterparties, as I’ve mentioned, are linked in ways that could cause them to contemporaneously run into a problem because of a single event (such as the implosion of the telecom industry or the precipitous decline in the value of merchant power projects). Linkage, when it suddenly surfaces, can trigger serious systemic problems.
...
When Charlie and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don’t understand how much risk the institution is running.
...
The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Knowledge of how dangerous they are has already permeated the electricity and gas businesses, in which the eruption of major troubles caused the use of derivatives to diminish dramatically. Elsewhere, however, the derivatives business continues to expand unchecked. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts.
...
In our view, however, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.
...
In extreme cases, mark-to-model degenerates into what I would call mark-to-myth.

Warren E. Buffett
February 21, 2003
Chairman of the Board

Posted by: Michael M | Aug 16, 2007 7:23:47 AM

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