The Negativity Bubble
I keep hearing people say that there is "too much negativity out there."
Investors should understand that the way this is typically presented, it is merely an opinion. ("I think, I feel, I believe").
However, I prefer quantitative metrics -- hard numbers -- to feelings/opinions. Dougie Kass sends along these two data points:
• The cash positions in mutual funds stand at 3.8%, slightly below the 3.9% low established in 1972.
• Margin debt as a percentage of the S&P market cap has climbed to 2.4%, an all-time high. The previous peak? Early 2000, at the height of the Internet bubble.
Data always trumps anecdotal evidence.
~~~
What's in your wallet sentiment model?
Thursday, August 16, 2007 | 10:26 AM | Permalink
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» The Rumor BubbleBlow-ups, Meltdowns, Emergency Announcements, Warnings: Wall Street Rumor Drunk From Sipping On The Product of The Grapevine from DealBreaker.com
Today might not only be one of the most violently volatile days on the market. It’s also one of the most rumor swept. We’re hearing more rumors with more names attached than anyone could possibly check or even keep up... [Read More]
Tracked on Aug 16, 2007 3:13:31 PM
» Margin Debt Mutual Fund Cash Levels Dont Matter from Trader's Narrative
Last Thursday, Barry Ritholtz wrote in The Big Picture about two data points sent in by Doug Kass:
• The cash positions in mutual funds stand at 3.8%, slightly below the 3.9% low established in 1972.
• Margin debt as a percentage of the S... [Read More]
Tracked on Aug 23, 2007 11:00:18 PM
Comments
and SPY making generational double top. mama.
Posted by: scorpio | Aug 16, 2007 10:28:36 AM
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