Employment Population Ratio & Recessions

Tuesday, September 11, 2007 | 10:30 AM

Directly on point with our last post on NILFs and the labor participation rate, David points us to this delicious econ-wonk chart (below).

It shows the relationship between a declining Employment Population Ratio, and subsequent recessions:


Fascinating chart -- thanks for the pointer, Dave, and thanks Adam for the chart!


EM-Ratio -- What, Me Worry?
Adam Oliensis
Safe haven, September 09, 2007

Tuesday, September 11, 2007 | 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)
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Well, that graph seems to suggest that the ratio is predictive of recessions. But isn't this mixing up cause and effect, that recessions result in a smaller ratio of the workforce employed? Notice that the declines are coincident with recession, not typically leading recessions. I think it basically tells us something we already knew, that unemployment goes up during economic downturns.

Posted by: Tom | Sep 11, 2007 10:36:57 AM

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