Foreigners and US stocks: the ultimate contrarian signal?
Michael Panzner recent commentary is very relevant to our earlier discussion today:
"Many commentators note the fact that U.S. investors have poured a lot of money into foreign share markets in recent few years.
As it happens, the flow has not been just one way.
In fact, based on cumulative 12-month totals derived from monthly Treasury Department data, foreigners invested a record amount in U.S. corporate stocks during the period that ended in July, the latest month available.
When was the last record set? In January 2001, just as the dot-com bubble was bursting and the bottom was falling out of the U.S. stock market.
Indeed, over the past decade, foreigner investor behavior has proved to be a reasonably good long-term timing signal -- in contrarian terms, that is.
For instance, while U.S. share prices were bottoming in 2002, foreigners continued to reduce their exposure, until they eventually rejoined the bullish party in late 2005.
A cynic might wonder: now that they are all in, can much lower prices be far behind?"
Good stuff -- thanks, Mike.
Monday, September 03, 2007 | 12:00 PM | Permalink
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Herd mentality.
Posted by: Owner Earnings | Sep 3, 2007 12:07:41 PM
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