The Big Picture

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NFP +166k

Friday, November 02, 2007 | 08:57 AM

I have to jump, but here's the official release:

"Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 166,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality. Manufacturing employment continued to decline, and construction employment was little changed.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data): The number of unemployed persons, at 7.2 million, was essentially unchanged in October, and the unemployment rate held at 4.7 percent. A year earlier, the number of unemployed persons was 6.7 million, and the jobless rate was 4.4 percent.

The Household Survey a/k/a Current Population Survey (CPS) -- which I find much less reliable than the Establishment Survey a/k/a Current Employment Statistics (CES) -- showed a loss of 250,000 jobs, and a decrease in the Civilian labor force of 211k.

Birth Death adjustment was 103k -- its comparable to October 2006, but still disproportionate to actual job creation. B/D gains of 25k in Financial and 14k in Construction make the entire data series suspect.

~~~

I'll take these apart in ~~a little while~~ eventually, but I heard all I needed to know when I read "Employment in financial activities was essentially unchanged in October . . ."

Sources:

Employment Situation Summary
OCTOBER 2007
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

CES Net Birth/Death Model
OCTOBER 2007
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm