Jobs Surge!

Wednesday, December 05, 2007 | 09:44 AM

ADP says private NFP increased 189,000.

Sayeth ADP:

"Even in manufacturing, construction, and financial services, sectors where employment has been under downward pressure, there are signs of accelerating employment."

These number include a "baffling improvement in industries tied to housing and mortgage lending" (WSJ)

I'll spend more time on this later, as I am now off to BloombergTV . . .


UPDATE:  December 5, 2007 2:30pm

Outlier, anyone?

Peter Boockvar points out that:

"The Nov ADP private sector job gain of 189k was the strongest reading of the year and 46k more than the 2nd best reading.

In Nov '06 it rose 258k, also the strongest # of 2006, by 63k and in Nov '05 it rose 301k, the highest in the history of this data, 60k above the 2nd highest reading in 2005.

Only in retrospect will we know if ADP had difficulty in their seasonal adjustments for November for the past 3 years ahead of the holiday season so it does make the Govt Payroll data on Friday still always difficult to predict.

In other words, don't bet the farm on this data point . . .  >



Analysis of November's Report
Wednesday, December 5, 2007, 8:15 am EST


Wednesday, December 05, 2007 | 09:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (28) | TrackBack (1) add to | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post



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» NFP: Birth/Death Adjustments from The Big Picture
One of the things we have harped on for quite a long time here at The Big Picture is the flawed BLS Birth Death Model (BDM). Since 2003, the B/D adjustment has been part and parcel to BLS' Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, the official measu... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 6, 2007 7:17:45 AM


Those job figures cannot be correct.

Posted by: bucky katt | Dec 5, 2007 9:53:14 AM

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